Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Could win: Emma Stone, Birdman
Should win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
If Patricia Arquette loses, it’s going to be a long night for Boyhood. There’s a chance Emma Stone wins for her great role in Birdman, but Arquette should deservedly take home her first Oscar for this career defining role.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Could win: Edward Norton, Birdman
Should win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
J.K. Simmons is 60 years old, and he finally got a part that will make him a household name. His Whiplash part was as meaty as any great character actor could hope for, and he absolutely knocked it out of the park. If The Academy really falls hard for Birdman, it’s possible that Edward Norton could upset Simmons (Norton was the best part of Birdman, after all), but it’s not likely. Simmons pretty much has this one in the bag.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Could win: Reese Witherspoon, Wild (but not really)
Should win: Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
If anyone other than Julianne Moore walks away with the Best Actress Oscar on Sunday it will be an absolute shock. This is Moore’s fifth nomination, and it’s about time that she get rewarded for a career of greatness. I finally have the opportunity to see Still Alice this weekend before the ceremony, and I can’t wait.
I unfortunately won’t be able to see Marion Cotillard’s performance in Two Days, One Night before the ceremony, but of the nominated performances of the year, it was Felicity Jones’ in The Theory of Everything, a film I otherwise did not particularly like, that quietly impressed me the most. She’s the only reason that film works, and I can’t say that about any of the other Best Actress nominated performances I’ve seen.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Could win: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Should win: Who cares?
This is the one actually interesting acting category, and I can honestly say I have no idea who will win. The narratives are there to crown a winner of either Eddie Redmayne (for his portrayal of Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything) or Michael Keaton (for his career analyzing role in Birdman). In the end, I think the edge goes to Redmayne since he’s playing the part of an actual person, but The Academy would love to recognize Keaton too, especially since the role undoubtedly resonates strongly with the acting members.
As my “should win” suggests, I couldn’t care less who wins this category. Keaton and Redmayne’s performances were both solid and I guess I’d rather see either of them win over Bradley Cooper, Benedict Cumberbatch, or Steve Carell (who shouldn’t even be listed as a lead actor). However, if I had my way, I’d replace all five actors. In my mind the performances from Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler), Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel), David Oyelowo (Selma), Brendan Gleeson (Calvary), and Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice) are all more worthy of attention than any of those The Academy recognized.
Best Director
Could win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Should win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Will Richard Linklater win Best Director for successfully crafting Boyhood, a movie unlike any other in the history of cinema? Or will it be Alejandro González Iñárritu for making a movie about wanting to make something as good as Boyhood? The latter is something Academy voters will identify with more, and Iñárritu seems the likely winner.
It already won him the top prize at the Directors Guild Awards. Not counting 2012 when Ben Affleck won the Directors Guild and wasn’t even nominated for the Oscar, you’d have to go all the way back to 2002 when Rob Marshall’s Directors Guild win for Chicago preceded Roman Polanski’s win for The Pianist to find a time when the two didn’t line up. A Directors Guild win almost always equals a Best Director win at the Oscars, and it’s tough to bet against that. And if that isn’t enough, Iñárritu tries to make Oscar movies. He plays by The Academy’s rules whereas Linklater just does his own thing.
Still, it wouldn’t be out of the question for Linklater to win either. Boyhood has its supporters, and he did something that has literally never been done before. He didn’t win the very important Producers Guilds, but he did win almost everything else. If Birdman wins Best Picture, could Linklater win Best Director and stop Birdman from taking them both?
Best Picture
Could win: Boyhood
Should win: Boyhood
I don’t think Birdman will take them both. I think that Boyhood and Birdman will split Best Picture and Best Director, but I have absolutely no clue which one will take either. However, if one of them sweeps the pair, the odds of Birdman being the victorious film seems far more likely. Splits used to never happen, but I think it’ll happen for the third year in a row.
How did Birdman get to be the frontrunner? For a long time, Best Picture seemed like a moderately certain win for Boyhood, but it lost all the big awards. Birdman won the top prize at the Producers Guild Awards, Directors Guild Awards, and Actors Guild Awards, and that’s an almost unbeatable combo. No film has won all three and lost the Best Picture Oscar since Braveheart upset Apollo 13 in 1995.
Birdman is exactly the type of movie The Academy has been recognizing recently. To them, Boyhood may be about average people “who were ‘garbage’ and ‘losers,'” as one voting member told Awards Daily, but Birdman is about them. It’s about people who fight in a blockbuster driven industry to create something that means something (like, ahem, Boyhood). It’s not about average people living their lives.
Of course, Boyhood does have its supporters. It won the BAFTA Awards and the Critics Choice Awards, and that’s usually a pretty good combination. It helps to have a guild award too, but Boyhood was shut out. At this point, Boyhood is down but not out. There are Academy members who want to knock it down. Statistically, a victory isn’t very likely. However, I can’t shake this feeling that Boyhood is somehow going to break the odds and take home Best Picture. It’s certainly what I want to happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
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