Best Foreign Language Film
Could win: Leviathan (Russia)
Will win: Ida (Poland)
In addition to being nominated here, Ida picked up a nomination for Best Cinematography. That’s probably enough to seal this victory.
Best Documentary Feature
Could win: Virunga
Should win: CitizenFour
I’ve not had the opportunity to see any of the Best Documentary Feature nominees. None of them got anything that remotely resembled a wide release, unfortunately. From what I’ve heard, CitizenFour should win and most likely will. I can say that I’m bitter that the Roger Ebert documentary Life Itself got snubbed. It was not only one of the best documentaries of the year, it was one of the best films of the year.
Best Animated Feature
Could win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Should win: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Sequels almost never win Best Animated Feature. That is the one fact that is keeping me from anointing How to Train Your Dragon 2 the easy victor. Toy Story 3 is the only sequel that has ever won the award, and that film had a lot going for it. It was almost universally critically acclaimed, it was (at the time) the highest grossing animated film ever, and it was (believed to be) the closing chapter in one of the most beloved trilogies of all-time.
How to Train Your Dragon 2 has its fans, but it certainly wasn’t universally acclaimed or a box office splash. Is this the film that will break the no sequel trend? I don’t think so. I think it’s more likely that the Big Hero 6 will be the victor, especially since Disney/Pixar almost always wins.
Of the two, How to Train Your Dragon 2 is the far better film, but The Tale of the Princess Kaguya should be the winner. And of course, if The Lego Movie hadn’t been snubbed, this conversation would be very different.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Could win: Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Should win: Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
This is an interesting year for Best Adapted Screenplay. Quite often the award goes hand-in-hand with a Best Picture, but all of the frontrunners are competing in Original Screenplay this year. If American Sniper makes an unexpected but possible push for Best Picture, I guess it’s possible Jason Hall could win, but the screenplay is the least likely element of that film to be recognized (and it’s laughable that it even received a nomination).
For a long time the award looked like Graham Moore’s to lose for The Imitation Game, and after being beaten by Anthony McCarten’s The Theory of Everything at the BAFTAs, it’s now anyone’s game. Damien Chazelle’s Whiplash is the best script out of the five, and even though The Academy incorrectly designated it as Adapted, I think it will win. It also helps that he directed his own screenplay; The Academy awards writer/directors frequently.
However, in a perfect world Gillian Flynn’s Gone Girl adaptation would have been nominated and taken this category easily.
Best Original Screenplay
Could win: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, and Armando Bo, Birdman
Will win: Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Screenplay is very interesting this year. If you were to just read any of them, it’s very possible your response could be “This will never work on screen,” but they all did work. These are all unique scripts and there’s a strong case to be made for all of them, though E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman’s Foxcatcher script is the least likely (and least worthy) of all the nominees to score a win.
Even if Boyhood wins Best Picture, Richard Linklater’s script probably won’t win due to the fact that a lot of people think it feels too improvised to be recognized here. If Birdman wins Best Picture, it’s very possible that Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, and Armando Bo’s writing is recognized too.
The Grand Budapest Hotel has been coming on strong as of late, and I think this is where The Academy will finally recognize Wes Anderson. Some have called it his best movie yet, and while that’s subjective, it’s probably his most Wes Anderson-y. Anderson is just coming off a big victory at the Writer’s Guild of America, and while Birdman was not eligible for competition at those awards, the victory might be enough to net The Grand Budapest Hotel a writing Oscar for Anderson and Hugo Guinness (co-credited with Anderson on story).
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