The 87th Oscars are this Sunday, February 22, and it’s time to predict which films will go home with Oscar gold.

A quick note: I’ve broken up the different Oscar categories into who I think will win, who I think could win, and who I want to win. The will win and could win predictions are purely based on what films I think The Academy will recognize, not who they should recognize. While there are some predicted winners on the list that would be my personal selections, my selection there does not reflect my tastes and opinions on the films included.

Best Costume Design

Period pieces and fantasy films typically do well in this category, and all five nominees this year definitely fit the bill. Any of the nominees could conceivably win, but The Grand Budapest Hotel or Into the Woods seem the most likely. Milena Canonero’s work The Grand Budapest seems the safest choice.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Few categories are this close. Any of three nominees could win, but I’m guessing The Grand Budapest Hotel will take home the award. It’ll likely pick up several other awards, and that could be enough to push The Academy to award it this one too.

Best Production Design

The Grand Budapest Hotel is overwhelming favorite in this category, and that’s the way it should be.

Best Sound Mixing

War movies and music based movies always do well in the sound mixing category, and the winner is almost always a Best Picture nominee. That rules out Unbroken and Interstellar, and Birdman seems a less likely candidate than Whiplash or American Sniper. Which one will walk away with the award?

Truth be told it could be either, but I have a feeling The Academy will go with Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley’s work on Whiplash due to the fact that drumming is such a lead character and even voters who don’t know how to properly judge sound (and there are certainly many that fall into that category) will think about that, at least on a subconscious level.

Best Sound Editing

This sound category too is a category where a Best Picture nominee is typically a precursor to victory. It’s unlikely that The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies or Unbroken would go against the odds, but it is possible that Interstellar could. However, it will most likely be Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman taking home this award for American Sniper.

Best Visual Effects

Three superhero movies – Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Guardians of the Galaxy, and X-Men: Days of Future Past – were nominated for Best Visual Effects, but it’s unlikely that any of them will take home this award. Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher look to be the likely winners for Interstellar, but it could and should be Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. Often the category goes to a Best Picture nominee, but there aren’t any this year. Interstellar was probably the closest to receiving a nomination, at that might give it a leg up.

On Page 2: Can ‘Everything is AWESOME!’ win Best Song?

Best Documentary Short

The shorts are always hard to predict, and quite typically most people don’t get a chance to see them. I haven’t seen them, so I have no real preference on a victor.

Best Live Action Short

See: Best Documentary Short

Best Animated Short Film

The only animated short I’ve seen is Feast, and it’s quite lovely. I’d be very happy if it won, and it probably will.

Best Film Editing

Of all the Best Film Editing nominees, American Sniper was cut in a way that makes it the most tense. However, it’s the editing on Boyhood that is the most obviously praise-worthy. Sandra Claire had to take 12 years of footage and cut it together in a seamless way. That was the biggest challenge, and it’s likely she’ll be rewarded for it.

Best Cinematography

No cinematographer has won the Oscar two years in a row since John Toll won for Legends of the Fall and Braveheart in 1994 and 1995, respectively. It’s all but a sure thing that Emmanuel Lubezki will end that drought. Lubezki won for his groundbreaking work on Gravity last year, and his incredible work on Birdman will almost certainly be recognized this year. Look out for his work on Terrence Malick’s Knight of Cups, 2016 Oscars.

Best Original Score

Alexandre Desplat has been nominated for eight Oscars since 2007 without a single victory, and even though he has two of the nominees this year, he’s probably going to lose again.

Johann Johannsson and his Theory of Everything score should take this. It’s the classic kind of score that The Academy loves to recognize, and it has plenty of time to shine, particularly in the film’s final moments. A victory will be well deserved; the score is very beautiful.

Best Original Song

This is a very tough one to call. There was a lot of hubbub when Selma was snubbed from categories it should have received nominations in, and it’s possible that The Academy gives the Oscar to John Legend and Common for “Glory” simply to show that they don’t hate Selma. On the other hand, it’s very possible Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond could take home the award for “I’m Not Gonna Miss You,” the last song Glen Campbell wrote before his battle with Alzheimers ended his career.

Both songs are deserving. They’re both well written and emotional. While “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” may be one of the saddest songs I’ve ever heard, especially within the contexts of Campbell’s personal battle, I’d personally give the award to “Glory” because of how perfectly it paints just how little progress we’ve made since the days of Dr. King.

On Page 3: ‘How to Train Your Dragon 2’ or Big Hero 6’?

Best Foreign Language Film

In addition to being nominated here, Ida picked up a nomination for Best Cinematography. That’s probably enough to seal this victory.

Best Documentary Feature

I’ve not had the opportunity to see any of the Best Documentary Feature nominees. None of them got anything that remotely resembled a wide release, unfortunately. From what I’ve heard, CitizenFour should win and most likely will. I can say that I’m bitter that the Roger Ebert documentary Life Itself got snubbed. It was not only one of the best documentaries of the year, it was one of the best films of the year.

Best Animated Feature

Sequels almost never win Best Animated Feature. That is the one fact that is keeping me from anointing How to Train Your Dragon 2 the easy victor. Toy Story 3 is the only sequel that has ever won the award, and that film had a lot going for it. It was almost universally critically acclaimed, it was (at the time) the highest grossing animated film ever, and it was (believed to be) the closing chapter in one of the most beloved trilogies of all-time.

How to Train Your Dragon 2 has its fans, but it certainly wasn’t universally acclaimed or a box office splash. Is this the film that will break the no sequel trend? I don’t think so. I think it’s more likely that the Big Hero 6 will be the victor, especially since Disney/Pixar almost always wins.

Of the two, How to Train Your Dragon 2 is the far better film, but The Tale of the Princess Kaguya should be the winner. And of course, if The Lego Movie hadn’t been snubbed, this conversation would be very different.

Best Adapted Screenplay

This is an interesting year for Best Adapted Screenplay. Quite often the award goes hand-in-hand with a Best Picture, but all of the frontrunners are competing in Original Screenplay this year. If American Sniper makes an unexpected but possible push for Best Picture, I guess it’s possible Jason Hall could win, but the screenplay is the least likely element of that film to be recognized (and it’s laughable that it even received a nomination).

For a long time the award looked like Graham Moore’s to lose for The Imitation Game, and after being beaten by Anthony McCarten’s The Theory of Everything at the BAFTAs, it’s now anyone’s game. Damien Chazelle’s Whiplash is the best script out of the five, and even though The Academy incorrectly designated it as Adapted, I think it will win. It also helps that he directed his own screenplay; The Academy awards writer/directors frequently.

However, in a perfect world Gillian Flynn’s Gone Girl adaptation would have been nominated and taken this category easily.

Best Original Screenplay

Best Original Screenplay is very interesting this year. If you were to just read any of them, it’s very possible your response could be “This will never work on screen,” but they all did work. These are all unique scripts and there’s a strong case to be made for all of them, though E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman’s Foxcatcher script is the least likely (and least worthy) of all the nominees to score a win.

Even if Boyhood wins Best Picture, Richard Linklater’s script probably won’t win due to the fact that a lot of people think it feels too improvised to be recognized here. If Birdman wins Best Picture, it’s very possible that Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, and Armando Bo’s writing is recognized too.

The Grand Budapest Hotel has been coming on strong as of late, and I think this is where The Academy will finally recognize Wes Anderson. Some have called it his best movie yet, and while that’s subjective, it’s probably his most Wes Anderson-y. Anderson is just coming off a big victory at the Writer’s Guild of America, and while Birdman was not eligible for competition at those awards, the victory might be enough to net The Grand Budapest Hotel a writing Oscar for Anderson and Hugo Guinness (co-credited with Anderson on story).

On Page 4: Who will win Best Picture?

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

If Patricia Arquette loses, it’s going to be a long night for Boyhood. There’s a chance Emma Stone wins for her great role in Birdman, but Arquette should deservedly take home her first Oscar for this career defining role.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

J.K. Simmons is 60 years old, and he finally got a part that will make him a household name. His Whiplash part was as meaty as any great character actor could hope for, and he absolutely knocked it out of the park. If The Academy really falls hard for Birdman, it’s possible that Edward Norton could upset Simmons (Norton was the best part of Birdman, after all), but it’s not likely. Simmons pretty much has this one in the bag.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

If anyone other than Julianne Moore walks away with the Best Actress Oscar on Sunday it will be an absolute shock. This is Moore’s fifth nomination, and it’s about time that she get rewarded for a career of greatness. I finally have the opportunity to see Still Alice this weekend before the ceremony, and I can’t wait.

I unfortunately won’t be able to see Marion Cotillard’s performance in Two Days, One Night before the ceremony, but of the nominated performances of the year, it was Felicity Jones’ in The Theory of Everything, a film I otherwise did not particularly like, that quietly impressed me the most. She’s the only reason that film works, and I can’t say that about any of the other Best Actress nominated performances I’ve seen.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

This is the one actually interesting acting category, and I can honestly say I have no idea who will win. The narratives are there to crown a winner of either Eddie Redmayne (for his portrayal of Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything) or Michael Keaton (for his career analyzing role in Birdman). In the end, I think the edge goes to Redmayne since he’s playing the part of an actual person, but The Academy would love to recognize Keaton too, especially since the role undoubtedly resonates strongly with the acting members.

As my “should win” suggests, I couldn’t care less who wins this category. Keaton and Redmayne’s performances were both solid and I guess I’d rather see either of them win over Bradley Cooper, Benedict Cumberbatch, or Steve Carell (who shouldn’t even be listed as a lead actor). However, if I had my way, I’d replace all five actors. In my mind the performances from Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler), Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel), David Oyelowo (Selma), Brendan Gleeson (Calvary), and Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice) are all more worthy of attention than any of those The Academy recognized.

Best Director

Will Richard Linklater win Best Director for successfully crafting Boyhood, a movie unlike any other in the history of cinema? Or will it be Alejandro González Iñárritu for making a movie about wanting to make something as good as Boyhood? The latter is something Academy voters will identify with more, and Iñárritu seems the likely winner.

It already won him the top prize at the Directors Guild Awards. Not counting 2012 when Ben Affleck won the Directors Guild and wasn’t even nominated for the Oscar, you’d have to go all the way back to 2002 when Rob Marshall’s Directors Guild win for Chicago preceded Roman Polanski’s win for The Pianist to find a time when the two didn’t line up. A Directors Guild win almost always equals a Best Director win at the Oscars, and it’s tough to bet against that. And if that isn’t enough, Iñárritu tries to make Oscar movies. He plays by The Academy’s rules whereas Linklater just does his own thing.

Still, it wouldn’t be out of the question for Linklater to win either. Boyhood has its supporters, and he did something that has literally never been done before. He didn’t win the very important Producers Guilds, but he did win almost everything else. If Birdman wins Best Picture, could Linklater win Best Director and stop Birdman from taking them both?

Best Picture

I don’t think Birdman will take them both. I think that Boyhood and Birdman will split Best Picture and Best Director, but I have absolutely no clue which one will take either. However, if one of them sweeps the pair, the odds of Birdman being the victorious film seems far more likely. Splits used to never happen, but I think it’ll happen for the third year in a row.

How did Birdman get to be the frontrunner? For a long time, Best Picture seemed like a moderately certain win for Boyhood, but it lost all the big awards. Birdman won the top prize at the Producers Guild Awards, Directors Guild Awards, and Actors Guild Awards, and that’s an almost unbeatable combo. No film has won all three and lost the Best Picture Oscar since Braveheart upset Apollo 13 in 1995.

Birdman is exactly the type of movie The Academy has been recognizing recently. To them, Boyhood may be about average people “who were ‘garbage’ and ‘losers,'” as one voting member told Awards Daily, but Birdman is about them. It’s about people who fight in a blockbuster driven industry to create something that means something (like, ahem, Boyhood). It’s not about average people living their lives.

Of course, Boyhood does have its supporters. It won the BAFTA Awards and the Critics Choice Awards, and that’s usually a pretty good combination. It helps to have a guild award too, but Boyhood was shut out. At this point, Boyhood is down but not out. There are Academy members who want to knock it down. Statistically, a victory isn’t very likely. However, I can’t shake this feeling that Boyhood is somehow going to break the odds and take home Best Picture. It’s certainly what I want to happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

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