Continuing Hypable’s Tony predictions, we look at the musical acting categories.
Among the musical actors this year, half are nominated for the first time, and only a quarter have actually won before. These races will be among the most exciting of the evening, since they could go many different ways.
Best Actor in a Musical:
Michael Cerveris, Fun Home – previously won for Assassins; four other previous nominations
Robert Fairchild, An American in Paris
Brian d’Arcy James, Something Rotten! – previously nominated for Shrek and Sweet Smell of Success
Ken Watanabe, The King and I
Tony Yazbeck, On the Town
Like most musical races this year, it’s a very close race between three nominees, one each from Fun Home, AAIP, and Something Rotten! Ken Watanabe received awful reviews, and Tony Yazbeck is the least interesting thing in On the Town (which is saying something). The OCC and Drama Desk went to newcomer Robert Fairchild, which would make him the assumed frontrunner. However, the buzz is that Michael Cerveris is the one to beat, since he wasn’t eligible for any other awards this year. And not out of the race yet is Brian d’Arcy James, who of the three is the one due an award.
Will Win: Michael Cerveris (Fun Home)
Might Win: Brian d’Arcy James (Something Rotten!)
Should Win: Brian d’Arcy James
Best Actress in a Musical:
Kristin Chenoweth, On the Twentieth Century – previously won for You’re a Good Man, Charlie Brown; previously nominated for Wicked
Leanne Cope, An American in Paris
Beth Malone, Fun Home
Kelli O’Hara, The King and I – five previous nominations
Chita Rivera, The Visit – previously won for The Rink and Kiss of the Spider Woman; seven other prior nominations
This is quite the decorated field – among all of this year’s actress nominees, Chita Rivera and Kelli O’Hara alone account for over half the prior nominations. The one that stands out is Leanne Cope, nominated here for her Broadway debut. Barring an upset as part of a sweep by one of the Best Musical nominees, this is a two-horse race between Kelli O’Hara and Kristin Chenoweth. Chita Rivera is a dark horse contender just because this is likely the Tonys’ last chance to honor her, but it’s not like she’s lacking in Tony recognition. The Drama League honored her this year as their Distinguished Performance, so she’s not totally out of the race.
O’Hara is on her sixth nomination here, making her one of the most-nominated actors ever to not have a Tony. She gets snubbed time and time again, and there is a groundswell of support for her to finally take home the Tony to compensate for her loss last year (for Bridges of Madison County). Unfortunately, it looks like it’s just not her year yet again. Chenoweth gives one of the most dynamic performances ever as the manic lead of On the Twentieth Century; she received the OCC and the Drama Desk for it, and the Tony is hers to lose. As for O’Hara, seven is a powerfully magical number, so maybe next time she’ll get lucky.
Will Win: Kristin Chenoweth (On the Twentieth Century)
Might Win: Kelli O’Hara (The King and I)
Should Win: Kristin Chenoweth
Featured Actor in a Musical:
Christian Borle, Something Rotten! – previously won for Peter and the Starcatcher, previously nominated for Legally Blonde
Andy Karl, On the Twentieth Century – previously nominated for Rocky
Brad Oscar, Something Rotten! – previously nominated for The Producers
Brandon Uranowitz, An American in Paris
Max von Essen, An American in Paris
A rather interesting category here, in that all but one of the nominees are up against a costar. An American in Paris will likely not see either of its stars recognized, as they will split the vote. It will come down to either Andy Karl and one of the stars of Something Rotten!, but which star that will be is anyone’s guess. Brad Oscar has the showier role in that he gets to perform the showstopping number “A Musical,” akin to Aladdin’s “Friend Like Me,” which won James Monroe Iglehart a Tony last year. However, Christian Borle is more present throughout the show, and is also omnipresent in the show’s promotional campaign as the biggest star attached to the show. Borle was the one who ended up with the Drama Desk. Viewers seem to be split 50-50 between the two, leading to another very likely instance of splitting the vote.
Thus, the award is Andy Karl’s to lose. Karl manages to draw all eyes to him when on stage with Kristin Chenoweth and Peter Gallagher – no mean feat. He also built up goodwill last year for his turn as Rocky, a stupendous performance in a mediocre show. Karl won the OCC in this category, further cementing his frontrunner status.
Will Win: Andy Karl (On the Twentieth Century)
Might Win: Christian Borle (Something Rotten!)
Should Win: Andy Karl
Featured Actress in a Musical:
Victoria Clark, Gigi – previously won for Light in the Piazza, previously nominated for Cinderella and Sister Act
Judy Kuhn, Fun Home – previously nominated for She Loves Me, Chess, and Les Miserables
Sydney Lucas, Fun Home
Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I
Emily Skeggs, Fun Home
Three nominees from the same show in a category is not something you see every day. Judy Kuhn and Sydney Lucas will split the vote, just as they did at the OCC Awards last year. Victoria Clark is a Tony darling, being nominated every other year lately, but hers is also the sole nomination Gigi got. A show so reviled by Tony voters will not be given any awards, which would make Broadway newcomer Ruthie Ann Miles the frontrunner by default. Miles won the OCC Award, so expect her to walk away with the prize.
Will Win: Ruthie Ann Miles (The King and I)
Might Win: Judy Kuhn (Fun Home)
Should Win: Ruthie Ann Miles
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