2015 Tony Award nominees: Best Show categories
There are three precursors to the Tonys: the Outer Critics Circle Awards (OCC), Drama Desk Awards (DD), and the Drama League. None of them are apples-to-apples, as they also honor off-Broadway shows: this skews their field of contenders, and makes the Broadway transfers of yesteryear’s off-Broadway hits ineligible for awards.
This season has more frontrunners than any year in recent memory: four or five very strong shows in each category that would have walked away with the prize any other year without breaking a sweat. It makes our job that much harder, but it sure makes for a very interesting Tony season.
We will split up our Tony nominee predictions into several articles: this one concerns the four Best Show categories. For the first time, we’re offering limited coverage of the plays in addition to musicals. In the Best Show categories, if there are at least nine candidates in any category, there can be a fifth nominee if the voting is close for a fourth nominee. This applies to all categories except Best Revival of a Musical.
Best Musical
The candidates are Holler If Ya Hear Me, The Last Ship, Honeymoon in Vegas, Finding Neverland, Fun Home, It Shoulda Been You, An American in Paris, Dr. Zhivago, The Visit, and Something Rotten. Four of them are guaranteed nominations, having gotten one from OCC, DD, and the Drama League. These are Fun Home, An American in Paris, The Visit, and Something Rotten.
The question is whether a fifth candidate will manage to sneak in there; most likely candidates are Finding Neverland and It Shoulda Been You. It depends what kind of mood the nominating committee is in. If they want something cheerful and upbeat, they will pick It Shoulda Been You, which appears to be a spoonful of sugar.
If they appreciate having a good cry, Finding Neverland will get it for its emotional wallop. Drama League nominated both, OCC only nominated It Shoulda Been You, and the Drama Desks ignored both. While Finding Neverland seems to be the likelier choice, it’s highly probable the committee agrees on the four previously mentioned and leaves it at that.
Predictions: Fun Home, An American in Paris, The Visit, Something Rotten.
Best Musical Revival
The candidates are On the Town, On the Twentieth Century, The King and I, Side Show, and Gigi. Because there are only five candidates, three shows will get nominations, with a fourth possible if the voting is close. On the Town, On the Twentieth Century, and The King and I are guaranteed the three slots, each picked up a nomination from all other awards.
A fourth nomination, if there is one, would go to Side Show (which got OCC and DD nominations). The only question is Side Show’s inclusion. Tony voters’ extremely short memories are a major factor against; very few shows that are closed get Tony recognition. However, Side Show was beloved in the theatre community, and it’s more likely to be included. Gigi will be left out.
Predictions: On the Town, On the Twentieth Century, The King and I, Side Show.
Best Play
The candidates are Airline Highway, The Audience, Constellations, Country House, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, Disgraced, Fish in the Dark, Hand to God, Living on Love, The River, and Wolf Hall. They may as well skip this category and point to the West End’s Olivier Awards, because most of the best new plays are from the West End. Curious Incident…, The Audience, and Wolf Hall are all guaranteed nominations. They all received OCC, Drama League, and Olivier award nominations; Curious Incident… also got a Drama Desk nomination, completing the set.
There are three potential candidates for the fourth (and possible fifth) spot. The Drama League also recognized Hand to God and Constellations, while Airline Highway got a DD nomination. Airline Highway got stellar reviews, but it also opened on the last day of eligibility, the same day as the incredibly popular The Visit. Voters may have missed it, or seen it at the last minute and felt some Broadway fatigue. Constellations is yet another British import, and also got an Olivier nomination for Best Play (same year as The Audience and Curious Incident…). However, it has already closed, and Tony voters likely want to nominate at least one American play.
The likeliest candidate is Hand to God, the rude and irreverent puppet play that is the furthest thing imaginable from a classy British drama. If making a point to support American plays, this one will be the one to nominate. Therefore, Hand to God will take the fourth nomination. But there is likely enough appreciation for Airline Highway to sneak it in as a fifth nominee.
Predictions: Airline Highway, The Audience, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, Hand to God, Wolf Hall.
Best Play Revival
The candidates are A Delicate Balance, The Elephant Man, The Heidi Chronicles, It’s Only a Play, Love Letters, The Real Thing, Skylight, This Is Our Youth, and You Can’t Take It With You. This is a very heartening field; for the first time in forever, there is no Shakespeare or Tennessee Williams present!
There are four sure things, which picked up both OCC and Drama League nominations: The Elephant Man, The Heidi Chronicles, Skylight, and You Can’t Take It With You. The Elephant Man was also the only revival to pick up a Drama Desk nomination, cementing its status as frontrunner.
There is likely enough affection for It’s Only a Play to sneak it in as a fifth nominee. It got a Drama League nomination, but more importantly, it has extended twice, broken box office records, and is a play about Broadway that will surely tickle Tony voters’ fancy.
Predictions: The Elephant Man, The Heidi Chronicles, Skylight, It’s Only a Play, You Can’t Take It With You.
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