Best Actress in a Supporting Role
2. Emma Stone, Birdman
3. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
4. Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
5. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Right now, this is Patricia Arquette’s Oscar to lose. There’s no way she’s not getting a nomination, and Emma Stone is virtually as locked in for a nomination. Keira Knightley has been recognized quite a bit and should pick up a nomination, and the other two spots are a bit more open. Jessica Chastain has had a fantastic year with The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby, Miss Julie, Interstellar, and A Most Violent Year, and the latter is the most likely to get her an Oscar nomination. She was nominated for the Golden Globe, and that may parlay into an Oscar nomination too. Counting Meryl Streep out of the Oscar race is foolish, and even though The Academy does take breaks from her from time to time, Into the Woods is one of her most unique performances in some time. Rene Russo (Nightcrawler), Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer), and Laura Dern (Wild) have shots to crack the field, but it will be tough.
Dream nominee: She’s not even the supporting actress who has gotten the most love from her own movie, but Kim Dickens would be an interesting and great choice for her terrific turn in Gone Girl as Detective Rhonda Boney. She was nothing short of spot on.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
2. Edward Norton, Birdman
3. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
4. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
5. Robert Duvall, The Judge
J.K. Simmons and Edward Norton are in a two-man heat to win the Best Supporting Actor Oscar (with the slight edge going to Simmons, particularly after winning the Golden Globe), and both are guaranteed an Oscar nomination. Ethan Hawke will almost certainly join them (and could win if The Academy goes hard for Boyhood) as should Mark Ruffalo. The fifth spot is a little more open, but it should go to Robert Duvall. If not Josh Brolin would seem the most likely candidate. Steve Carell would have a chance if The Academy deems his performance a supporting role, but he’s been campaigning as a lead.
Dream nominee: It’s unbelieveable that he’s being campaigned as a supporting actor, but Andy Serkis’ acting in Dawn of the Planet of the Apes deserves to be recognized. Some of the credit for the greatness of his performance belongs to Weta Digital, but a lot of the credit belongs to him. His performance was easily one of the best of the year.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
2. Reese Witherspoon, Wild
3. Jennifer Aniston, Cake
4. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
5. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore’s victory at the Golden Globes only solidified that she’s the heavy favorite to win Best Actress (and it’s about time!). It’s interesting that her Oscar competition will most likely be the same has her Golden Globes competition. None of the Best Actress – Comedy or Musical actresses will likely make the Oscar field, not even winner Amy Adams. Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Jennifer Aniston, Rosamund Pike, and Felicity Jones have been recognized far more than Adams this season. If anyone is to crack the field it would likely be Marion Cotillard for Two Days and One Night, especially given that the film was snubbed from competing in Best Foreign Language Film.
Dream nominee: Amy Adams is likely on the outside looking in, and that’s too bad. Her performance was easily the best part of Big Eyes, and she’d likely getting a lot more love if her nuanced performance hadn’t been drowned out by a comically bad Christoph Waltz whose acting looked he was on a different planet, much less a different movie.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
2. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
5. David Oyelowo, Selma
Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne, the two Golden Globe winners, are the two actors who are most assured Oscar nominations as they’ve been recognized the most this season. Benedict Cumberbatch should be an easy third to join them, and Jake Gyllenhaal has been coming on strong and should pick up a nomination. The fifth spot is tougher to call. It’ll likely go to David Oyelowo. Other possible candidates are Ralph Fiennes who could benefit from how strongly The Grand Budapest Hotel has come on, Steve Carell who gave a transformative performance in Foxcatcher (and as a comedian turned dramatic actor a nomination would make sense), and Bradley Cooper, who could get a nomination for American Sniper purely based on The Academy’s love for Clint Eastwood.
Dream nominee: Brendan Gleeson is always fantastic, and his work in Calvary might have been the best of his career. His performance was incredible, and it’s a shame it’s not being recognized.
Best Director
2. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
3. Ava DuVernay, Selma
4. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. David Fincher, Gone Girl
Richard Linklater and Alejandro González Iñárritu are easily the two favorites and will absolutely receive Oscar nominations. Ava DuVernay, Wes Anderson, and David Fincher are all solid bets to fill up the Best Director pool as they’ve all been frequently recognized this season, though nowhere near to the extent of Linklater and Iñárritu. If The Academy looks elsewhere, Morten Tyldum could be nominated for The Imitation Game as could Damien Chazelle for Whiplash.
Dream nominee: Phil Lord and Christopher Miller directed two very different yet equally effective films this year in The Lego Movie and 22 Jump Street, and it’s too bad they’re not being recognized for it. Their work has been consistently great.
Best Picture
2. Birdman
3. The Imitation Game
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. The Theory of Everything
6. Selma
7. Whiplash
8. Nightcrawler
9. American Sniper
With the number of nominations and accolades it’s picked up so far, there’s no film more assured of a nomination than Boyhood, the film that has to be considered the Best Picture frontrunner at this time. Birdman and The Imitation Game have also performed well thus far and should be considered locks for nominations. The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Theory of Everything are two other films that have been recognized enough so far this awards season to pick up nominations.
From there the guessing gets a lot harder. Anywhere from five to ten films can receive Best Picture nominations in a given year, and while it’s possible the five named in the previous paragraph are the only films nominated, there’s been no less than nine films nominated in a given year since the field expanded from a set five. It’s likely that nine films will be nominated again. Selma was once seen as a frontrunner and hasn’t performed as well as expected, but it’s too important of a film for The Academy to ignore. Whiplash and Nightcrawler have been coming on strong as of late, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them sneak into the field. Clint Eastwood is loved by the Academy, and it’s likely that American Sniper will pick up some key nominations in other categories that will lead to a Best Picture nomination. If there are 10 nominations, Foxcatcher or Gone Girl would be the most likely candidates to join the nomination field. Into the Woods could also make a surprise late entrance.
Dream nominee: After including it in several other sections, it should come as no surprise that I include The Lego Movie here. If Toy Story 3 and Up can crack the Best Picture nominee field, why not The Lego Movie?
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