Tony Award time is upon us. Tuesday morning will see the nominations announced for the 2015 Tony Awards.

Rulings have been made, the last dozen shows opened last week, so here are Hypable’s predictions for the Tony Award nominees. This article will look at the acting categories for musicals.

Best Actor in a Musical

The actors eligible for this award are:

There are three sure things in this category: Brian d’Arcy James, Robert Fairchild, and Michael Cerveris, who all received nominations from OCC, DD, and Drama League. But past that, the field is wide open. Matthew Morrison will likely get a nomination, having received one from DD and Drama League. Tony Yazbeck might get it (he got OCC and Drama League nominations), but he is the dullest thing in On the Town.

If there is a big enough groundswell of support for Something Rotten, John Cariani might also get a nomination (he got OCC for Supporting Actor), but he is just not as memorable as d’Arcy James or Christian Borle. It would be like when Stark Sands got nominated for Kinky Boots alongside Billy Porter. On the other hand, if there is enough support for The Visit, Roger Rees might pick up a nomination.

Dr. Zhivago has been reviled by critics and ignored by awards bodies, but Tam Mutu might still get a nomination for what is surely a powerful role. The last remotely likely contender is Peter Gallagher for Twentieth Century, but he keeps missing performances due to illness.

Predictions: Brian d’Arcy James, Robert Fairchild, Michael Cerveris, Matthew Morrison, Tam Mutu.

Alternatives (in order of likelihood): Tony Yazbeck, John Cariani, Roger Rees, Peter Gallagher.

Best Actress in a Musical

The actresses eligible for this award are:

There are not many ways this category could go, as four of the five nominees are obvious: Kelli O’Hara, Kristin Chenoweth, Chita Rivera, and Leanne Cope. All have received nominations from all other awards bodies (except O’Hara missing the Drama Desk). There are three or four contenders for the fifth slot.

The likeliest is Lisa Howard for It Shoulda Been You, having received DD and Drama League recognition. The problem is confusion over who gets lead billing in It Shoulda Been You; most awards have recognized Tyne Daly as the lead. Both twins from Side Show should get Tony nods, but this time around they are not eligible for a joint nomination, and might split the vote. If one sneaks in, it’ll likely be Erin Davies; she got a DD nomination.

Beth Malone is not enough of a presence to warrant a nomination as lead actress. That leaves Laura Michelle Kelly from Finding Neverland. Her lead status is questionable, but she does get a very extended death scene, which could work in her favor.

Predictions: Kelli O’Hara, Kristin Chenoweth, Chita Rivera, Leanne Cope, Lisa Howard.

Alternatives (in order of likelihood): Erin Davies, Emily Padgett, Laura Michelle Kelly.

Best Supporting Actor in a Musical

Christian Borle (Something Rotten) and Andy Karl (On the Twentieth Century) are guaranteed slots, having been recognized by OCC, DD, and Drama League. Josh Grisetti (It Shoulda Been You) and Max von Essen (An American in Paris) received nominations from OCC and Drama Desk, and will likely fill in the third and fourth spot. The fifth slot should go to Kelsey Grammar for Finding Neverland; he was nominated by the Drama League.

The likeliest spoiler is Brad Oscar for Something Rotten, as he got a DD nomination, but unless Something Rotten is doing a sweep we believe the love will be focused on Christian Borle. If the vitriol towards Dr. Zhivago does not extend to Tony voters, Paul Alexander Nolan could get a nomination (he got an OCC). And though it’s a pipe dream, this writer very much wants young Aidan Gemme to be nominated for his heart-breaking turn as Peter Llewelyn Davies in Finding Neverland.

Predictions: Christian Borle, Andy Karl, Josh Grisetti, Max von Essen, Kelsey Grammar.

Best Supporting Actress in a Musical

Tyne Daly is guaranteed a spot for It Shoulda Been You, especially since most other awards and the advertising materials treat her as the lead in the show. Ruthie Ann Miles (King and I) is also a sure thing, having both OCC and Drama League nominations. Judy Kuhn (Fun Home) will take the third slot, having received recognition from all other awards. The last two slots, however, are entirely up in the air.

The ladies of On the Town would be strong contenders, except they will likely split the vote. Thus far, Megan Fairchild got an OCC, Elizabeth Stanley a Drama Desk, and scene-stealer Alysha Umphress nothing. Mary Louise Wilson (Twentieth Century) could get in, having received an OCC nomination. Heidi Blickenstaff could be recognized for Something Rotten, though she is somewhat overshadowed by all the guys on the stage. Sydney Lucas (Fun Home) might nab a nomination for playing a young Allison Bechdel.

If the Tony voters are feeling more charitable towards Finding Neverland than other awards bodies did, Carolee Carmello might snag a nomination; she got a Drama Desk nod, though her performance was nothing special. If Tony voters remember the existence of Gigi, then Victoria Clark could get a nomination, as she got an OCC. Either way, this category is one to watch Tuesday morning.

Predictions: Tyne Daly, Ruthie Ann Miles, Judy Kuhn, Sydney Lucas, Victoria Clark.

Which performances in musicals do you think will be nominated for a Tony? And who do you think should be nominated?

On page 2: The Best Show categories!

2015 Tony Award nominees: Best Show categories

There are three precursors to the Tonys: the Outer Critics Circle Awards (OCC), Drama Desk Awards (DD), and the Drama League. None of them are apples-to-apples, as they also honor off-Broadway shows: this skews their field of contenders, and makes the Broadway transfers of yesteryear’s off-Broadway hits ineligible for awards.

This season has more frontrunners than any year in recent memory: four or five very strong shows in each category that would have walked away with the prize any other year without breaking a sweat. It makes our job that much harder, but it sure makes for a very interesting Tony season.

We will split up our Tony nominee predictions into several articles: this one concerns the four Best Show categories. For the first time, we’re offering limited coverage of the plays in addition to musicals. In the Best Show categories, if there are at least nine candidates in any category, there can be a fifth nominee if the voting is close for a fourth nominee. This applies to all categories except Best Revival of a Musical.

Best Musical

The candidates are Holler If Ya Hear Me, The Last Ship, Honeymoon in Vegas, Finding Neverland, Fun Home, It Shoulda Been You, An American in Paris, Dr. Zhivago, The Visit, and Something Rotten. Four of them are guaranteed nominations, having gotten one from OCC, DD, and the Drama League. These are Fun Home, An American in Paris, The Visit, and Something Rotten.

The question is whether a fifth candidate will manage to sneak in there; most likely candidates are Finding Neverland and It Shoulda Been You. It depends what kind of mood the nominating committee is in. If they want something cheerful and upbeat, they will pick It Shoulda Been You, which appears to be a spoonful of sugar.

If they appreciate having a good cry, Finding Neverland will get it for its emotional wallop. Drama League nominated both, OCC only nominated It Shoulda Been You, and the Drama Desks ignored both. While Finding Neverland seems to be the likelier choice, it’s highly probable the committee agrees on the four previously mentioned and leaves it at that.

Predictions: Fun Home, An American in Paris, The Visit, Something Rotten.

Best Musical Revival

The candidates are On the Town, On the Twentieth Century, The King and I, Side Show, and Gigi. Because there are only five candidates, three shows will get nominations, with a fourth possible if the voting is close. On the Town, On the Twentieth Century, and The King and I are guaranteed the three slots, each picked up a nomination from all other awards.

A fourth nomination, if there is one, would go to Side Show (which got OCC and DD nominations). The only question is Side Show’s inclusion. Tony voters’ extremely short memories are a major factor against; very few shows that are closed get Tony recognition. However, Side Show was beloved in the theatre community, and it’s more likely to be included. Gigi will be left out.

Predictions: On the Town, On the Twentieth Century, The King and I, Side Show.

Best Play

The candidates are Airline Highway, The Audience, Constellations, Country House, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, Disgraced, Fish in the Dark, Hand to God, Living on Love, The River, and Wolf Hall. They may as well skip this category and point to the West End’s Olivier Awards, because most of the best new plays are from the West End. Curious Incident…, The Audience, and Wolf Hall are all guaranteed nominations. They all received OCC, Drama League, and Olivier award nominations; Curious Incident… also got a Drama Desk nomination, completing the set.

There are three potential candidates for the fourth (and possible fifth) spot. The Drama League also recognized Hand to God and Constellations, while Airline Highway got a DD nomination. Airline Highway got stellar reviews, but it also opened on the last day of eligibility, the same day as the incredibly popular The Visit. Voters may have missed it, or seen it at the last minute and felt some Broadway fatigue. Constellations is yet another British import, and also got an Olivier nomination for Best Play (same year as The Audience and Curious Incident…). However, it has already closed, and Tony voters likely want to nominate at least one American play.

The likeliest candidate is Hand to God, the rude and irreverent puppet play that is the furthest thing imaginable from a classy British drama. If making a point to support American plays, this one will be the one to nominate. Therefore, Hand to God will take the fourth nomination. But there is likely enough appreciation for Airline Highway to sneak it in as a fifth nominee.

Predictions: Airline Highway, The Audience, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, Hand to God, Wolf Hall.

Best Play Revival

The candidates are A Delicate Balance, The Elephant Man, The Heidi Chronicles, It’s Only a Play, Love Letters, The Real Thing, Skylight, This Is Our Youth, and You Can’t Take It With You. This is a very heartening field; for the first time in forever, there is no Shakespeare or Tennessee Williams present!

There are four sure things, which picked up both OCC and Drama League nominations: The Elephant Man, The Heidi Chronicles, Skylight, and You Can’t Take It With You. The Elephant Man was also the only revival to pick up a Drama Desk nomination, cementing its status as frontrunner.

There is likely enough affection for It’s Only a Play to sneak it in as a fifth nominee. It got a Drama League nomination, but more importantly, it has extended twice, broken box office records, and is a play about Broadway that will surely tickle Tony voters’ fancy.

Predictions: The Elephant Man, The Heidi Chronicles, Skylight, It’s Only a Play, You Can’t Take It With You.

Which of the potential nominees do you think will be honored in the Best Show categories?