In the hours waiting for the box office results of The Hunger Games opening weekend, I immediately thought of something else to keep my occupied.
Catching Fire.
I am going to lay out two predictions. I am not a physic or anything of that sort. Just a movie and TV buff.
1) This November, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn: Part Two hits theaters. To the disappointment of some fans (me included), the movie probably will not break many records. A few are possible, like the previous record of Highest November opening weekend – currently held by New Moon. But to say it will beat Harry Potter is pretty ridiculous. Nonetheless, I did not come here to predict anything about Twilight (rather, not specifically).
Catching Fire starts filming in September. Between September and the end of October, there probably will not be many scenes finished. But that will not stop a trailer for the highly anticipated sequel from appearing.
If you think Lionsgate/Summit is going to back down from trying to spread the audience of Hunger Games to as many people as possible or to expand it to the likes of Harry Potter, you are crazy.
What does that mean? Catching Fire will see two trailers by the end of the year. They may be the same one, maybe slightly different, but there will be two movies you will see a trailer with: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn: Part Two is certainly one of them. The Hobbit is less certain but remains a viable option in addition to Breaking Dawn.
The trailer probably will not be anything more (maybe even less) than what we saw with The Hunger Games teaser trailer. A voice-over with a possible head shot of someone in the film (most likely Katniss).
When will we see a full trailer for Catching Fire? Ender’s Game on March 15, 2013 (Summit). If not then, then take your pick: The Host or Percy Jackson 2 on March 22. Afterward, we should see the usual trailer attached with the summer blockbusters from May all the way until November.
My second prediction: Catching Fire will beat Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part Two’s midnight, opening day, and opening weekend grosses and will slaughter New Moon’s November opening weekend record.
Why? Think Twilight. A small gross at first. Come the second movie and you have many records. Heck, most of the records New Moon got in 2009, it still holds.
Hunger Games may potentially end up with upwards of $300 million in the USA. I doubt it can do very well over seas. It seems less popular there. But at most, I can see the movie with $800 million world-wide. About $150 million less than the 1st Harry Potter book.
The overseas number can DOUBLE with Catching Fire. Especially if Hunger Games does $500 million. Overseas is generally the biggest market for movies and it is constantly proven with almost every genre and 3D film. Even better: Twilight came out with $200 million overseas and New Moon came out with $413 million. That is more than double. The Hunger Games follows that same fate.
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