The nominations for the 85th Academy Awards are now less than 24 hours away, as we have our oscar predictions for which films we think will be nominated in the major categories.
A quick note: These predictions are purely based on which films we think the Academy will vote on and don’t necessarily reflect our personal taste or opinions on the film, but are rather an attempt to accurately guess at what will appear in Thursday’s nominations announcement. Also note a few updates following the BAFTA nominations.
Official nominations for the 85th Academy Awards arrive tomorrow, January 10, at 5:38am PST.
Best Picture
At this point Lincoln is the clear frontrunner, as it directly fits into the Academy’s demographic in just about every way possible. There are a few other contenders like Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables and Silver Linings Playbook, and then the question is which films can get a nomination. With anywhere from 5 to 10 potential nominees, more films (Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Master) could slip in, but right now I’d hazard a guess at eight nominees in the top-line category.
2. Argo
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. Les Miserables
5. Silver Linings Playbook
6. Life of Pi
7. Django Unchained
8. Moonrise Kingdom
Best Director
It would be a bit of a surprise to see a picture/director split, and right now Steven Spielberg seems like the safe bet. Of course, Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck could both also take it as each have expertly crafted their respective films and are both previous winners (Affleck has never won for Best Director). It will be interesting to see who gets into the final two slots, as Hooper, Lee, Quentin Tarantino and David O. Russell are all likely candidates, but as of now the predictions line up with the Directors Guild Awards nominations.
2. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
3. Ben Affleck, Argo
4. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
5. Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Best Actor
Let’s face it. This is the least interesting race of the season, as Daniel Day-Lewis has the award virtually in the bag for his excellent portrayal of Abraham Lincoln. The only real question is who can manage nominations, as Joaquin Phoenix has gone from true contender to struggling for a nomination after he publicly denounced awards and was shut out of the Screen Actors Guild nominations. At this point it’s between him and John Hawkes for The Sessions to get that fifth slot, and is essentially a toss-up at this point.
2. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
3. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
4. Denzel Washington, Flight
5. John Hawkes, The Sessions
Best Actress
This is an interesting race in that there really seem only to be two sure-fire nominees, and therefore should be a two-horse race between Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain. Thanks to some last minute campaigning, Naomi Watts appears to have guaranteed herself a nomination, as well, but other than that it’s basically a toss up. Right now I have Marion Cotillard and Emmanuelle Riva in the fourth and fifth slots, but Quvenzahane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild and Rachel Weisz for The Deep Blue Sea are also contenders along with Helen Mirren for Hitchcock.
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
3. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
4. Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
5. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Best Supporting Actor
Right now there appears to be four near-certain nominees in Tommy Lee Jones, Robert De Niro, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Alan Arkin, with Jones the likely winner. The fifth slot is interesting as Leonardo Dicaprio, Christoph Waltz and Samuel L. Jackson could cancel each other out for Django Unchained. Javier Bardem could likely sneak in with a nomination for Skyfall, as could Matthew McConaughey for his role in Magic Mike. Right now I see Bardem as the favorite for Skyfall following the BAFTA and SAG noms.
2. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
3. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
4. Alan Arkin, Argo
5. Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Best Supporting Actress
One of the weaker races this year, Anne Hathaway’s turn as Fantine in Les Miserables makes her the clear frontrunner. Sally Field is also a sure-bet for a nomination for Lincoln, but past that everything’s up in the air. Helen Hunt should garner a nom for The Sessions, despite that film losing its awards steam. I also have Amy Adams and Nicole Kidman rounding out the five, although don’t be surprised to see Maggie Smith for Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Judi Dench for Skyfall, Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook or Ann Dowd for Compliance when all is said and done.
2. Sally Field, Lincoln
3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
4. Amy Adams, The Master
5. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Best Original Screenplay
It looks like Mark Boal’s journalistic approach to Zero Dark Thirty should earn him an Oscar, as he hopes to beat out Quentin Tarantino for a second consecutive awards season (The Hurt Locker‘s screenplay beat Inglorious Basterds). Moonrise Kingdom should get a nomination, as should Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master. John Gatin’s screenplay for Flight isn’t that great, but could scoop up a nomination, as could Rian Johnson for his fantastic Looper, but right now I have Michael Haneke for Amour following the BAFTA nominations.
2. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
3. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
5. Michael Haneke, Amour
Best Adapted Screenplay
Tony Kushner should have this award in the bag for Lincoln, although the category is quite strong. Chris Terrio has won awards for penning the fantastic screenplay for Argo, and the balance of real life comedy and drama by David O. Russell in Silver Linings Playbook is quite remarkable. Life of Pi isn’t guaranteed a nomination, and Stephen Chbosky for The Perks of Being a Wallflower might be a stretch, but could get a nomination as well. Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild and William Nicholson for Les Miserables could also crack the top five.
2. Chris Terrio, Argo
3. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
4. David Magee, Life of Pi
5. Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Best Animated Feature
This isn’t the strongest of years for animation, as Wreck-It Ralph seems to be the most unanimously liked of the bunch. There also seems to be quite a lot of love for Tim Burton’s Frankenweenie, and Brave will get a nomination by default because of Pixar. After that, things get more interesting as I have the studio picture ParaNorman and the independent production Le Tableau.
2. Frankenweenie
3. Brave
4. ParaNorman
5. Le Tableau
Best Foreign Language Feature
Many have Austria’s Amour as the frontrunner here, but while it is very good, it’s really a brutal watch. I have France’s The Intouchables as the winner as it is both quite good and very uplifting. That said, if pundits’ predictions are any indication, Amour has a better shot. Then again, some think The Intouchables could nab a Best Picture nomination. Looking farther down the list, I have Denmark’s A Royal Affair, Chile’s No and Norway’s Kon-Tiki, although I’ve heard some buzz from Canada’s War Witch and Romania’s Beyond the Hills.
2. Amour
3. A Royal Affair
4. No
5. Kon-Tiki
Best Documentary Feature
It’s hard to remember a stronger race in this category, as the shortlist is absolutely stacked and even some deserving docs were left off that list. Right now the wonderfully entertaining Searching for Sugar Man is the favorite, although How to Survive a Plague has gotten deserved recognition from critics’ groups, as well. Near the bottom of the list, there are several films that could easily get a nom that were left off the predictions, such as The Imposter, Detropia, The House I Live In and others. It will certainly be an interesting race!
2. How to Survive a Plague
3. The Gatekeepers
4. Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
5. The Invisible War
A Quick Recap
To read our predictions for the technical categories, click here. We’ll have updated predictions next month, closer to the actual Academy Awards show, after nominees are announced.
Excluding the shorts, here are the Oscar counts per film:
Lincoln – 7
Zero Dark Thirty – 3
Anna Karenina – 2
Life of Pi – 2
Argo – 1
The Intouchables – 1
Les Miserables – 1
Searching for Sugar Man – 1
Silver Linings Playbook – 1
Skyfall – 1
Wreck-It Ralph – 1