Who will walk home with Academy Awards on Sunday night? Here we try to predict the outcomes of this year’s tightest Oscar races.
As far as Oscar nights go, this Sunday is very wide open. Often there is more or less a sense of who is going to go home with what awards in many of the categories, but this year there are very few awards that we can predict with much guarantee.
Last year I was able to correctly predict 22 of the 24 categories correctly, but I don’t expect to have anywhere near that number this year. It’s just way too wide open to call. Reminder, these are predictions of what I think will happen, not what I hope will happen.
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Best Picture – ‘Gravity’
This year, there is no category that could go as many directions as Best Picture. In all likelihood, the award will go to one of these three: Gravity, 12 Years a Slave, or American Hustle. Unlike many years when there is a clear favorite (see Argo last year), the award really could wind up going to any of these three. Why predict Gravity? Though it’s not a guarantee either, it’s looking likely that Alfonso Cuarón will win the award for Best Director, and they usually go hand in hand. The Academy did split the awards last year with Ang Lee winning Best Director for Life of Pi and Argo taking Best Picture, and it’s unlikely they’ll do it again as it hasn’t happened in two consecutive years since 1952.
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Best Director – Alfonso Cuaron
Of the five directors nominated this year, none can claim to have devoted the amount of time and effort to their film that Alfonso Cuarón did with Gravity. When Cuarón began making the film, the technology needed to make the movie didn’t even exist. It paid off marvelously for him. He was able to create stunning visuals with extremely long takes. The biggest critics of Gravity cited its perhaps basic script, but Cuarón has received almost unanimous praise for his directing, and he’s already won awards at the Golden Globes, Directors Guild, and BAFTAs. Steve McQueen could possibly win if 12 Years a Slave wins best picture, and this could be where the Academy recognizes American Hustle. Still, Cuarón is the likely choice.
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Best Actor – Matthew McConaughey
The best actor race has seemingly become Matthew McConaughey’s to lose. McConaughey has already received multiple accolades for his performance in Dallas Buyers Club including wins at the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild, and the Critics Choice Awards. It would take a major upset for one of the other actors to steal the award from him. Chiwetel Ejiofor would seemingly be coming in strong off his recent BAFTA win, but he didn’t have McConaughey to compete against. Leonardo DiCaprio is perhaps his most interesting competition. He’s the one actor who could possibly upset him. The pair did not compete against each other at any of the other awards, so it’s possible DiCaprio could pull the upset. Still, it’s not the likely outcome.
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Best Actress – Cate Blanchett
It has seemed highly likely for a very long time that Cate Blanchett would be the one accepting the Best Actress award this year, and that is likely still the case. Blanchett has won every major award so far including awards at the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild, the BAFTAs, and the Critics Choice awards. Still, her victory is not a guarantee. Though Amy Adams hasn’t won any of the major awards so far this year, there is some belief that she could pull the upset. American Hustle has been gaining support, and those that support it are likely to vote Adams here. She has never won, and some argue that her performance is the film’s best. There is also some thought that recent controversy surrounding Woody Allen could negatively affect Blanchett. Still, Blanchett is the likely winner, but Adams could pull the upset.
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Supporting Actor – Jared Leto
Of the four acting categories, none are likely as locked up as Supporting Actor. Jared Leto has won nearly every award he’s been nominated for this season including the important ones: the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice, and the Screen Actors Guild. Of any of his challengers, Barkhad Abdi probably stands in his way the most, especially with Abdi coming off his recent BAFTA win. Leto wasn’t nominated there, however, and it’s likely he’ll still win on Sunday. Bradley Cooper, Jonah Hill, and Michael Fassbender also have slight chances, but it would be a surprise to see any of them win, especially Fassbender, who elected not to campaign.
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Supporting Actress – Jennifer Lawrence
Jennifer Lawrence or Lupita Nyong’o will win the Supporting Actress Oscar on Sunday, but it’s essentially a coin flip. Early on in the race it seemed as if Lawrence was the favorite, but Nyong’o came on strong to become the favorite. But with Golden Globe and BAFTA wins under her belt, it would seem as if Lawrence has once again become the favorite. Only three times have actors won both of those awards and not won the Oscar. Nyong’o does have wins from the Screen Actors Guild and the Critics Choice Awards, so it’s an extremely close race. The nudge goes to Lawrence since American Hustle was nominated in all four acting categories, and it’d be a rare occurrence if they were to walk away with wins in none of them.
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Original Screenplay – ‘Her’
Original Screenplay is another category that is pretty much a two horse race at this point. It’s down between Spike Jonze’s Her and Eric Singer & David O. Russell’s American Hustle. It would be a shock to see Dallas Buyers Club, Nebraska, or Blue Jasmine step in and take it. This could be the place where the Academy recognizes Russell. Many have cited American Hustle‘s script as one of its biggest strengths (but others have cited it as a weakness too). But with wins at the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice, and Writers Guild, it’s likely that Her takes the Oscar as well.
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Adapted Screenplay – ‘12 Years a Slave’
While there is a chance that Philomena could pull an upset, John Ridley should be going home with an Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay for his writing of 12 Years a Slave. Among other victories, it won the Critics Choice Award, its biggest award thus far. It recently lost to Philomena at the BAFTAs, but it’s still likely that this may be where 12 Years a Slave gets its recognition. Though it did not win the Golden Globe, that shouldn’t hurt its chances here as it lost to Her, the likely Original Screenplay winner.
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Animated Feature – ‘Frozen’
The Oscar for Best Animated Feature more often than not goes to the Pixar film that is nominated (the last time a Pixar film lost was Cars), but Monsters University was not nominated this year, resulting in a more interesting outcome this year. Still, it’s more than likely that Disney will wind up taking the trophy anyway. Frozen is the almost sure bet to take the award as it’s been one of the most successful animated movies both critically and financially in recent years. Its almost certain Oscar win will probably push it over $1 billion at the worldwide box office. Its main competition is The Wind Rises, the final film from legendary Japanese filmmaker Hayao Miyazaki. An upset is possible, but unlikely.
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Original Score – ‘Gravity’
Steven Price’s incredible work on Gravity has made him the frontrunner here, but it’s a very close race between Price’s Gravity score and the long overdue Alexandre Desplat and his score for Philomena. Had The Monuments Men not been bumped back to 2014, Desplat may have been the easy winner here. Still, it’s likely Price’s award to lose. His score for Gravity was not only technically and artistically brilliant, but it was integral to making Gravity work as the complete, emotional experience that it was.
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Original Song – ‘Frozen’
Though those who don’t love Let it Go are likely telling those of us that do to let it go already, there’s little chance that the Frozen hit song won’t win Sunday night. It was snubbed at the Golden Globes back in January, and Disney has marketed it better since then. The Let it Go sung in 25 languages video was a big part of that campaign, showing that the song means a lot on a global scale. If it does win, Bobby Lopez will become the 12th person to get an EGOT, that is win an award at the Emmys, Grammys, Oscars, and Tonys.
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Technical Categories
Production Design – The Great Gatsby
Cinematography – Gravity Costume Design – The Great Gatsby Film Editing – Gravity Makeup – Dallas Buyers Club Sound Mixing – Gravity Sound Editing – Gravity Visual Effects – Gravity |
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Other Films
Documentary Feature Film – The Square
Foreign Language Film – The Great Beauty Documentary Short – The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life Live Action Short Film – The Voorman Problem Animated Short Film – Get a Horse! |
Final Tallies
‘Gravity’ – 8
‘Dallas Buyers Club’ – 3
‘Frozen’ – 2
‘The Great Gatsby’ – 2
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