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After reading Selina’s “The CW likely to renew ‘The Vampire Diaries’, ‘Gossip Girl’ and ’90210′, but the fates of other shows remain uncertain” article, I started commenting on it. After the fourth paragraph, I realized that it needed a different post entirely. I am someone who is obsessed with TV ratings. I follow them so much I have an entire spreadsheet on Microsoft Excel that have tracked shows from various Broadcast and Cable networks for the past three years. With my experience, I need to say: total viewers mean absolutely nothing. For any show. American Idol, The Voice, The Superbowl— Nothing. Networks don’t make money off of total viewers. They make money off of target demos. CBS, FOX, NBC, ABC, most of the cable networks, focus on the Adults 18-49 demo. For ABC Family and The CW, the Women 18-34 demo is in focus.

Which leads me to my next conclusion and rebuttal to Selina’s article: The Vampire Diaries is the only CW show safe from cancelation.

I currently watch Nikita, The Vampire Diaries, and The Secret Circle on The CW. I own the former two on DVD and have every single season of Smallville on DVD. I tried to watch Ringer, but gave up in November. I have also watched Supernatural every now and then. The CW is a good network in overall quality. It is meant for a “younger, teenaged” audience with an emphasis on females.

Nikita is canceled. The only way the show can be saved is if another network decides to pick it up. But there is no chance a failing show like Nikita will be saved by another network. If the CW decides to give Nikita 10 more episodes for mid-season next year, I would not be surprised. But that just means the producers get 10 more episodes to frame a decent finale, rather than the one mentioned in Selina’s article.

I would not mind if The CW either gave Nikita’s producers time to write a series finale. If the network and Mark Pedowitz is nice, I don’t see why they can’t extend it for 2 hours and have a finale session on Friday nights like they did with both Smallville and Supernatural. Only this year, Supernatural can come first and Nikita second. That would bring the final episode order of Nikita to 24 episodes, but it’s the FINAL season. There is no going back or adding more.

Ringer is certainly going to be canceled. There is no way the show can be saved. Like Nikita, there will be no network interested in horrid ratings (such as its 0.4/1 Adults and 0.5/1 Women) it received this past week.

I am shocked that they would renew Gossip Girl and 90210. They must have DAMN GOOD syndication deals in order to renew it for up to 13 episodes or more. The past few weeks, the two shows have been getting numbers almost identical to Ringer’s, give or take a few. Even if the show received a 0.7/1, how does the CW expect to keep it around and not keep going farther and farther down? To me, it just doesn’t make sense. They are ‘old’ shows. I have not watched them or kept track of their ratings as much as their newer shows because I keep expecting the network to axe it. With a new President, I was expecting it to certainly be canceled. ESPECIALLY with its ratings.

America’s Next Top Model is getting renewed. Same with The Vampire Diaries.

Last week (2/9) TVD received a 1.8/5 W(18-34) TSC received a 1.0/3. Nikita 0.6/2 and Supernatural 0.8/3. Right now, Supernatural is probably the least expensive show for The CW to produce out of the 4 shows on Thursday and Friday (America’s Next Top Model is probably the least show on the Network, save for Remodeled). Supernatural has a syndication deal (80 episodes is syndication) and gets a decent rating for FRIDAY. Friday, besides Saturday, has the least number of people watching TV. Plus, it averages above almost every other show except for TVD. Unless the Producers say “No more Supernatural,” Supernatural WILL NOT BE CANCELED. I will bet a lot of money that Supernatural’s last season will be season 8, though.

Hart of Dixie is a toss up. I personally think the show will be canceled just because it performs as poorly as it is. The ratings are slightly above Ringer range. That isn’t that good for any show.

The second best show (after TVD) on the network in my opinion, has a tough four months ahead of it. And if it gets renewed, a tough year. My suggestion: Get everyone and their Mother to watch the show.

Let me set this up: Imagine Fox or NBC. Their biggest shows are American Idol and The Voice, respectively. Now, imagine that Fox or NBC decided to launch a new show after AI or TV, but it gets a quarter to half of its ratings. That doesn’t look good for the network or the show. Now, this happened to Fox with a few shows, as recently as I Hate My Teenaged Daughter. The network gives it a mercy renew or back order. Depending on how it performs, the show will usually end up canceled. The Vampire Diaries is equivalent to American Idol; just on different networks, different ratings, shows, etc. Fox and American Idol have probably 5 times the amount of money to spend on shows that end up being flops then the CW has.

The Secret Circle is the CW’s biggest flop in its history. They created it as a partner for The Vampire Diaries with the same creator and many producers and writers, etc. They EXPECTED it to do just as well, if not better, than TVD. After having a lead in such as The Vampire Diaries and after getting .8 below it, The CW wouldn’t be stupid to can it. The show does not have syndication and the price is probably about the same as The Vampire Diaries or a little below it, and TVD is probably the Network’s most expensive show.

But: The CW needs to have at least four shows on its schedule from this season, for next season. They cannot afford to cancel everything but The Vampire Diaries. Therefore, Supernatural and America’s Next Top Model are very safe. In my mind, age will be the difference. Gossip Girl’s audience and 90210’s audience cannot grow. It can only shrink. Those two shows require about 6 or 7 seasons worth of catching up. The average American or Earth inhabitant probably doesn’t have $20 to chug up for 22 hours of TV. Do that 6 or 7 more times and you don’t gain many viewers. Whereas, if I wanted to catch up with The Secret Circle for whatever reason, all I need to do is by 1 $30 DVD and spend 22 hours in front of a TV. If Gossip Girl and 90210 is renewed OVER The Secret Circle (which has thus far been outperforming both shows), I will be shocked. The reason Hart of Dixie won’t be renewed and The Secret Circle can is because of a simple ratings issue. HOD is constantly doing poorer than TSC.

Well, that’s all I have. Thanks for staying through and reading this article that I didn’t plan on writing.