Late last week, Marvel announced five dates for upcoming films, setting the stage for Phase 3. Which movies will fill those dates?
In addition to those five dates, Marvel added another date last night. They also had two other dates that they had previously announced, totaling eight release dates with movies not currently attached.
With so many dates to fill, it’s pretty hard to see what Marvel will do. We wouldn’t even be surprised if Marvel doesn’t yet know what they will be doing. What follows is a combination of our predictions of what we think they’ll do and what we’d do if we were them.
July 17, 2015
Assuming that it does not get delayed, Ant-Man will kick off Phase 3 of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Cast wise Ant-Man has a lot to be excited about. Paul Rudd as Scott Lang will bring another bonafide A-list movie star to Marvel’s universe, and Michael Douglas as Hank Pym, the creator of the Ant-Man suit, only brings more excitement. With Evangeline Lilly, Patrick Wilson, Corey Stoll, and Michael Peña, Ant-Man has a stellar cast.
The big blow of course came when Edgar Wright departed the project after working on it for over eight years. The film was a passion project, but in the end he and Marvel (and Disney) just couldn’t make it work. Marvel President Kevin Feige has since said that the process was too “collaborative” for Wright and that Ant-Man under new director Peyton Reed is the “absolute best version” of the film possible. We still don’t buy it, but we’re willing to wait and see.
May 6, 2016
The only other film in Phase 3 of the Marvel Cinematic Universe to have a release date is Captain America 3. We don’t yet know if Paul Rudd as Ant-Man will even make his way into any of the other films, so it’s very possible this could be the first “real” Phase 3 film. At the very least, it’s highly likely that this will be the first film to set the events of the phase in motion. This makes sense. Much like how Iron Man 3 began the story of how the individual Avengers were dealing from the events in New York in The Avengers, it’s likely that Captain America 3 will begin the story of how they are dealing with whatever ends up coming to pass in Avengers: Age of Ultron.
This is also the last Captain America film which Chris Evans is under contract for, so we also expect it to start setting up the next Captain America. When Steve Rogers is no longer our favorite star spangled man with a plan it’s possible that current Falcon Sam Wilson (Anthony Mackie) could become Captain America like was recently announced for the comics, but it’s far more likely that Bucky Barnes will fill that role as Marvel has Sebastian Stan signed to a nine picture deal.
Marvel is banking heavily on Captain America 3, and rightly so. This year’s Captain America: The Winter Soldier was a massive financial and critical success, and directors Joe and Anthony Russo have been brought back to direct the anticipated followup. As of today it’s still paired head to head with DC’s Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice, and it doesn’t look like Marvel will be the one to budge.
July 8, 2016
Now we enter into the world of the unconfirmed, but as far as they go, we have a pretty good idea which film Marvel will release on this date. It’s very likely that Marvel will follow up Captain America 3 in 2016 with Doctor Strange, much like how they’re following up Captain America: The Winter Soldier with Guardians of the Galaxy. By getting their confirmed hit out of the way early in the summer, they’re seemingly willing to follow that up with a more risky (read: not a guaranteed hit) project later on.
Why do we think Doctor Strange is the more risky property that Marvel will lead announce to come before others? The answer to this question is simple: Doctor Strange is further along in it’s development than any of the others. With Prometheus scribe Jon Spaihts doing rewrites and Sinister helmer Scott Derrickson attached to direct, Doctor Strange is coming sooner than later. So is an announcement of the titular character, and don’t be surprised if we get that announcement at Comic Con this Saturday. Previously Benedict Cumberbatch, Jared Leto, and Johnny Depp have been rumored as possible stars.
Next page: What will Marvel do in 2017?
May 5, 2017
While it could be released in the next spot, a few months later, there’s a good shot that Marvel’s big 2017 movie will be Guardians of the Galaxy 2. Three years seems like the right wait for a sequel, and we can’t imagine Marvel would want to push it any further. Releasing it on July 28 would be the most obvious choice as the first Guardians of the Galaxy will be released on August 1 this year. Releasing the sequel on essentially the same weekend would be a smart move. But we don’t think that will happen.
Up to this point, Marvel has done everything to brag about how good Guardians of the Galaxy is, and the first impressions by critics who have seen the movie have been incredibly positive. It’s set to be a huge success, so much that James Gunn has already been confirmed as director of its sequel. Guardians of the Galaxy is as big of a risk as Marvel has taken so far, but Guardians of the Galaxy 2 won’t be.
Because of this, we think Marvel will peg this as their big summer movie of 2017, something that will allow them to take more of a risk later in July, a risk similar to Doctor Strange the year before. Of course, there’s always the possibility that Marvel decides to give this release date to Iron Man 4 (if there is an Iron Man 4), but that would push Guardians of the Galaxy 2 further away than Marvel wants.
July 28, 2017
Assuming Marvel doesn’t pull out Iron Man 4 and stick Guardians of the Galaxy 2 onto this date (which would be one crazy summer), we think that for three years in a row this July/August date will again be where Marvel puts a risk. We also think this is where they put a movie that’s been a long time coming; a movie centered around a female superhero. Marvel is doing a lot of things right, but one of their biggest weaknesses has been the lack of a female hero leading a movie. It shouldn’t have had to come to this, but Marvel doesn’t want to wait until after Phase 3 to get their first female centric movie. They certainly don’t want to wait to announce it until after DC has announced Wonder Woman.
Currently it seems that Black Widow is the best bet for Marvel’s first female hero driven movie. Fans have been calling for it for a while, and it would be a smart business decision too. Black Widow is a known hero in the MCU, and she’ll have already have appeared in at least four (and probably five) movies by this point. She’s less of a risk than any other hero Marvel has yet to give a movie to. (Though, seriously Marvel? We like badass women. Just look at The Hunger Games.) This could even be (at least partially) a pre-The Avengers film that teams her up with Hawkeye, and we could finally learn what happens in Budapest.
We aren’t especially confident that Black Widow will be released in 2017, but it’s as good of an option as any. Marvel could release any number of properties here (or on May 5 if they decide to keep Guardians at this point in the summer), and we haven’t the slightest idea which one they’ll go with. It’s really up in the air at this point.
November 3, 2017
There’s a chance Marvel could surprise us and put it on May 5, 2017, but we’re pretty sure Thor 3 will release on one of the two November dates, and we’re banking on it being in 2017. We think November will be where Marvel wants to place Thor 3 due to how well Thor: The Dark World did in the same month. This could also place it a year and a half before Avengers 3, the same as the time between Thor: The Dark World and Avengers: Age of Ultron. There’s also the distinct possibility that if Thor 3 has a major plot point that directly leads into Avengers 3 it could be released a year later (November 2, 2018), but at this point we’re guessing that isn’t what happens.
The one thing that we can expect from Thor 3 is that it will likely show us where Loki stands after the events of Thor: The Dark World. Assuming a very small cameo hasn’t been hidden remarkably well, Loki will not appear in Avengers: Age of Ultron. Given his interactions with Thanos in The Avengers, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Loki play some kind of role in Avengers 3, unless Thor 3 does something to prevent that. Either way, Thor 3 should show where Loki lies.
Next page: What will Marvel do in 2018?
May 4, 2018
When Marvel announced last night that they would be releasing a movie on May 4, 2018, we’d be lying if we didn’t say it throw us for a loop. There’s no way that Marvel would ever release Avengers 3 on a month other than May as they want it to start the summer off with a bang, and working under that rule we assumed that Avengers 3 would have to be on the May, 2019 release date. May 2017 seems far too early, but we can absolutely see Marvel wanting to release their biggest property a year earlier (2018) if possible.
But we’re sticking to our guns. We still think Phase 3 will end in May 2019 for one big reason: Marvel has probably been running on the assumption that it would. Only when The Amazing Spider-Man 4 dropped out of the date did Marvel scoop it up. It’s true, Marvel could shuffle things around and bump Avengers 3 up a year, but we think they’ll keep it in 2019.
We also think that an extra May date is a decent indication that there will be a Phase 3 movie we had long assumed wouldn’t be made: Iron Man 4. After Captain America 3 and Guardians of the Galaxy 2, we don’t think there’s another franchise that Marvel would have enough faith in to put it in the month where they traditionally put their biggest projects. May is reserved for the Marvel movies that you already know that you want, and Iron Man 3‘s over $1 billion gross is evidence of just how huge Iron Man 4 would be.
The big thing to consider when discussing the possibility of Iron Man 4 is Robert Downey Jr.’s contract. Downey is currently only signed on for Avengers: Age of Ultron and Avengers 3, but he has revealed that he’s more than willing to sign another contract, it’s just a matter of reaching an agreement. “Right now, this has just been swell, hasn’t it?” Downey said, of playing Iron Man. We think he signs on for Iron Man 4, and we think Marvel releases it here.
July 6, 2018
This is another date where it’s hard to predict what Marvel will do. If we were right and Marvel releases Iron Man 4 on May 4, this could be a date to try a project that isn’t nearly as bankable. If Avengers 3 is released on that date, this could be the start of Phase 4. If Iron Man 4 doesn’t get made and Avengers 3 is released in 2019 like we think then the summer of 2018 will be a very interesting one.
One property they might be finally ready to stick here is Black Panther. For a while, it was thought that Black Panther would be a Phase 2 film, so it’s a project that has been on Marvel’s to do list for quite some time. Of the properties that we don’t know when we’ll see the, Black Panther might be the most logical to be released here solely due to the fact that it’s been planned for so long. We’re not entirely convinced that Black Panther will have anything to do with the charge towards Avengers 3, so we’re guessing that it might have to wait until Phase 4.
Another direction Marvel could go is Ms. Marvel (or Captain Marvel, depending on which version of the character they elect to go with), introducing Carol Danvers as Ms. Marvel before Avengers 3. Like we said earlier with Black Widow, Marvel will want to amp up their female driven superheros, and Ms. Marvel is the perfect hero to add to their universe. Could Ms. Marvel be big enough to be Marvel’s only movie in the summer of 2018? We think the audience would be there, but does Marvel? It’s distinctly possible that Marvel will want to introduce her in Avengers 3 before giving her a solo movie in Phase 4.
This is perhaps more of a long shot, but what if Marvel decides one character has more story that needs to be told before Avengers 3? What if Marvel decides we need Loki? We don’t have any info to back this up, but what if Loki has a story of his own that need to be told before Avengers 3? It’s entirely possible, and it would allow Marvel to focus more on his character in a movie that didn’t feature Thor. With all of the diehard Loki and Tom Hiddleston fans desiring it, we can see Loki being a big enough movie for Marvel’s summer of 2018, whether they get Iron Man 4 for May or not. We certainly don’t know what movie Marvel will stick here, but Loki would be their movie that would create the most buzz.
Next page: What will the end of Phase 3 look like?
November 2, 2018
It’s not a big summer date, but we have the feeling that Marvel will want to go BIG on November 2, 2018. Why? Assuming everything else we’ve predicted is more or less right, this is the penultimate movie of Phase 3, and Marvel will want people to be amped up for their big conclusion. There are a few directions Marvel could go on this release date, but we can’t say with any certainty which way they’ll go.
If the ending is big and important enough, it’s entirely possible that Thor 3 gets released here, but like we said we don’t think that Marvel will stick it here.
We thought Hulk will maybe show up in Guardians of the Galaxy 2, but he’s not going to. That makes Hulk the only character we’ve yet to see in Phase 3. In a perfect world, it’d be great to see Planet Hulk, a movie big enough to lead into Avengers 3. There’s only one problem: it’s not going to happen. Joss Whedon, Kevin Feige, and Mark Ruffalo have all said that a solo Hulk movie isn’t currently in the works, and even if it were it wouldn’t be Planet Hulk. It’s very possible that Mark Ruffalo won’t play Bruce Banner in a non-Avengers film until Phase 4 (unless, of course, he has a role in the potential Iron Man 4, something we’d very much like to see).
Marvel will want a big property to lead in Avengers 3, but they don’t really have any big enough left.
But what if, what if, Marvel led into Avengers 3 with Avengers 3? It’s was widely assumed that the finale of Phase 3 would fall on the May 2019 release date, something we still agree with, but what if Marvel were to split Avengers 3 into two movies, releasing Avengers 3: Part 1 on this November 2018 date? Marvel has never had a two part movie, but after Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, splitting the finale in a series has been all the rage, and we’re fairly confident that Marvel’s Phase 3 will be the end of the Marvel Cinematic Universe as we know it. Is the Thanos Infinity Gauntlet story too big for just one movie? We wouldn’t be surprised if it is. Of course, Robert Downey Jr. and Chris Evans only have contracts running through one more Avengers movie after Avengers: Age of Ultron, but if Marvel wants to work something out, we think they will. And maybe they already have.
May 3, 2019
Whether or not we’re right that Avengers 3: Part 1 will be released in November 2018 (or even exist), we still believe Avengers 3 will be (at least partially) released on this date. Yesterday the possibility opened up for it to be released a year earlier, but we think this date is the one Marvel has had circled for some time.
Avengers 3 will be a massive movie no matter what, but we think Avengers 3: Part 2 would be, without a doubt, Marvel’s biggest movie yet. Not only would it have the pull from all of the solo movies before it, but it would see the massive results of being the second part of a two-parter. It would be silly to think that Marvel has not considered making a two-part movie. It’s a guarantee for more money, and it could very well suit the story they’re telling better. Think of it as the Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 effect.
To recap, here’s how we see Phase 3 playing out:
July 15, 2015: Ant-Man
May 6, 2016: Captain America 3
July 8, 2016: Doctor Strange
May 5, 2017: Guardians of the Galaxy 2
July 28, 2017: Black Widow
November 3, 2017: Thor 3
May 4, 2018: Iron Man 4
July 6, 2018: Loki
November 2, 2018: Avengers 3: Part 1
May 3, 2019: Avengers 3: Part 2
For those who want to see more characters from the Marvel comics enter into the Marvel Cinematic Universe, this release schedule would undoubtedly be a disappointment. We both agree and disagree. We want to see many of the other heroes hit the big screen too, but we’re willing to wait until after Phase 3. Now is the time to focus on the characters that might not be around for very much longer. It’ll be interesting to see if Marvel agrees or not.
If last night’s announcement of another release told us anything it’s that Marvel might not have a plan. Given the business side of making movies, this makes a lot of sense. Lots of things have to go right for a movie to be made, and for huge blockbusters like these it comes down to the timing working out. Marvel may have a master plan that doesn’t come to fruition due to unforeseen circumstances. Regardless of that, Marvel has eight release dates to fill with movies, and that’s very exciting.