Will Jordan and Lindsey’s dance experience actually work against them this season?

Though we haven’t been covering it, the current season of Dancing with the Stars has been one of the show’s best. And despite the show’s penchant for hyperbole regarding such matters, it really is incredibly close this season. With the quarterfinals (and a delightful revamp of the trio round) behind us and five stars left standing, it would appear that the next two weeks will serve as a verdict on something the show has struggled with from the beginning: stars who already have dance experience.

In the first nine seasons, dancers tended to make the finals but come up short in the end – the two most significant examples being runners up Mel B and Mya. Eventually, Derek Hough bucked the trend, by winning Season 10 with Nicole Scherzinger, and Season 11 with Jennifer Grey (though in fairness, Jennifer Grey had absolutely zero competition). But other than that, the pattern persisted: Zendaya and Corbin Bleu (aka Big Jordan) both were runners up.

The sea change was Season 18, when Meryl Davis (an Olympic gold medalist for ballroom dancing… on ice) won. That was more of a pity win for her partner Maks, though, who had proven himself unable to win the show with anything less than a professional dancer. After that, the show booked more and more ringers.

Last season finally saw pushback. Heather Morris was unceremoniously eliminated in Week 6, and Normani Kordei landed in third place behind a fan favorite (David Ross) and an athlete (Rashad Jennings) whose partner was overdue for a win (Emma Slater).

This season, we are relitigating the issue with two ringers: Jordan Fisher and Lindsey Stirling. Will they pull off a victory, or will they be punished for their dance experience with a second or third place finish? The other competitors on the show, star and pro dancer alike, have been harping on about Jordan and Lindsey’s advantages incessantly throughout the season. Emboldened by the lessons of last season, they seem to be reminding viewers at every turn that Jordan and Lindsey have a wholly unfair advantage.

While Jordan and Lindsey are being lumped together, their cases are actually very different.

Jordan is the best dancer of the lot, no question of that. And he has one trump card the others do not: his pro, Lindsay Arnold, is the only one remaining who hasn’t won a Mirrorball Trophy yet. Given that none of the remaining celebrities are very big stars in their own right, a lot of the voting will be done by DWTS fans, who grow very attached to the professional dancers and want each of them to have a win. This was how several victories were decided: JR Martinez’s, Melissa Rycroft’s, Meryl Davis’s, and possibly even Rashad’s. This writer will ‘fess up to really wanting Lindsay Arnold to have a trophy to call her own.

However, Jordan’s big undoing is that it all looks too easy for him. With the exception of Meryl Davis, DWTS ringers are always penalized when it seems like they don’t have to work hard. Heather Morris seemed to breeze onto the dance floor and never break a sweat, Normani looked effortless when dancing, and even Simone Bailes was penalized for a lack of vulnerability. In contrast, Jennifer Grey was literally coming apart at the seams, Nyle DiMarco had his deafness to deal with, and even Nicole Scherzinger claimed (not very convincingly) that she couldn’t find the beat in jive music.

Lindsey, on the other hand, is borrowing from the Jennifer Grey playbook: she’s an excellent dancer, but is seen working as hard as anybody, and her body is completely falling apart. It may not be enough to overcome the stigma of prior dance experience, especially when she is constantly lumped in with Jordan by anyone decrying it, but our guess would be that there’s far less resentment towards her. And while her pro, Mark Ballas, already has two wins to his name, he’s a fan favorite who’s been gone awhile, and he has consistently crafted the best dances of the season for her.

Of course, the question won’t be settled in a vacuum, as Jordan or Lindsey’s victory largely depends on whether anyone’s available to steal the title from them.

It won’t be Drew Scott, whose dancing just isn’t up to snuff. Nice fun guys who can dance okay often get to the finals, to the chagrin of some viewers, but they never win. David Ross was the runner up last season. Bill Engvall got fourth place in Season 17. And so on.

It likely won’t be Victoria Arlen. Her performance has faltered, even as her dancing hasn’t, and she’d need to seriously turn it around in the next two weeks to remain in the game. She brings to mind a fellow Olympic athlete, Simone Bailes, who was a flawless dancer last season, but was kicked out during the semifinals for not being a convincing actress. And Victoria’s disability (not having feeling in her legs) almost certainly won’t factor into the victory. Disability did not bring home the trophy for Amy Purdy or Noah Galloway, though one could make an argument for Nyle DiMarco.

Which leaves us with… Frankie Muniz. For starters, Frankie is probably the biggest “star” of the remaining celebrities, which isn’t saying much. But he is ridiculously endearing, with a great sense of humor and an earnestness that’s won over the hearts of viewers. The surprise is that he’s also a great dancer: his scores have pretty much kept pace with Jordan and Lindsey. It helps that Witney is giving him the very best routines she’s ever done on the show, and that their chemistry is a joy to watch.

Frankie’s Achilles heel, however, is his lack of confidence. DWTS has had many different winners over the last twelve years, but it’s never yet crowned a champion who was full of self-doubt. Being self-deprecating is cute and relatable in the first half of the season, but the storyline is wearing thin. Len wisely advised Frankie of this, saying to cut it out with the no confidence thing – he knows how the game is played.

At this point, it will take a perfect storm for Frankie to win. Witney needs to craft a freestyle for the ages to top whatever Lindsay and Mark will dream up. Frankie needs to not choke during the semifinal. Viewers would have to lump Lindsey in with Jordan in terms of perceived unfair advantage. But if all those things come to pass, it could be Frankie hoisting the Mirrorball trophy in two weeks. After all, it happened for Rashad last season.

The next two weeks will be a nailbiter. Will Drew’s likability put him into the final over better-qualified candidates? Will Frankie take off his shirt as promised? Will Victoria experience a resurgence at just the right time to win it all? Will Lindsey just fall into pieces? Will Jordan ever get less than a perfect score again? (The last one is doubtful, but highly recommended for improving his chances of victory.) Place your bets!