According to Box Office Mojo estimates, The Dark Knight Rises is on pace to sell 10 million fewer tickets than Tim Burton’s Batman film did in 1989.

And I believe these estimates are utter nonsense.

Let’s go over the supposed numbers real quick so that we have a handle on just what they’re proposing based on ticket estimates.

Over at Movies.com, they’ve reported that Box Office Mojo takes the average ticket price for each year and works backwards from the box office total to calculate the number of tickets sold for each film. The 1989 Batman sold an estimated 62,954,600 tickets, with an average ticket price of $3.97, while The Dark Knight Rises has sold an estimated 50,635,700 tickets to date with an average ticket price of $8.02 – essentially a 12 million ticket gap currently (The Dark Knight Rises is still in theaters).

What this means is, despite The Dark Knight Rises being on its way to nearly $1 billion at the worldwide box office (currently at $901 million), less people have actually seen this film compared to the 1989 Batman which made just $411 million worldwide.

Which I find a bit hard to believe, even with ticket price inflation.

Now, they at least acknowledge that this isn’t “an exact science,” but the fact remains that there are so many variables in these estimations that they could potentially be off by huge margins.

Just imagine this, in 1989 when Batman came out, there was one theater with six screens in my hometown. In 2012, there are currently four theaters with 12-16 screens in each theater. Now, imagine that same jump in available screenings in every city in the U.S. and you’ll quickly see how theaters can simply accommodate more movie-goers than ever before.

Not to mention the ever expanding population in the U.S., which has increased by 65.9 million people since 1989 – a 26.7% jump. In 1989 there were 21,907 theaters in the U.S. and in 2012 there are currently 38,605 theaters – an increase of 16,698 or a 77.5% jump in total theaters in the U.S.

The chances of less tickets being sold for a major motion picture is highly unlikely, although during recessions people tend to hold back on spending extra cash, movie theaters usually fare well due to the experience allowing them time away from daily burdens. In ’89 it would be physically impossible to go to the movies as much as we as a society do today due to the lack of theaters and availability of multiple screenings.

Now, the one solid argument they have is that films stayed in theaters much longer 20 odd years ago than they do now. Hit movies like Batman would have stayed in theaters for nearly a year or more and therefore you were much more likely to see a movie more than once (which would actually reduce the amount of unique viewers).

The other argument is that because we get Blu-ray/DVD releases so quickly now as apposed to VHS tapes then (which came out over a year after the film’s release) that many people avoid going to the theater altogether and simply wait to view the film at home. Sure, this is a possibility, especially due to the Colorado shootings in this specific film’s case, but the amount of people doing this is most likely minuscule and definitely wouldn’t account for an estimated 10 million ticket sales.

The Avengers on the other hand had no problem “beating” the ’89 Batman, with an estimated 76 million tickets being sold. Neither did The Dark Knight, which sold an estimated 74 million tickets in 2008. So, maybe The Dark Knight Rises is truly a less popular film, or it simply hasn’t hit its peak yet.

The battle over ticket sales and box office numbers will rumble on due to continued inflation and lack of proper records, and while it’s hard to argue with the numbers, these estimations deserved a second look due to the variation of ticket prices, total theaters, increased population and screen availability.