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The idea that most of these films will even make it to the final stages of the Oscars come January is implausible speculation.

After all, this time last year, pundits predicted that the movies that became J. Edgar, Young Adult, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2 and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo were to be the ones to duke it out, not a silent black and white film and 3-D children’s movie (The Artist and Hugo). Nevertheless, it’s always fun to play the game: match up old players back for another Oscar and estimate the chances of the previously snubbed. This year, we have a lot of things at work: an influx of very British period films, old legends and new legends, and even some that were infamously ignored that could get the Oscar treatment this year.

Best Picture
Frontrunners (includes major Academy filmmakers; fits into Oscar bait stereotypes):

– The Great Gatsby
– Les Miserables
– Django Unchained
– The Master
– Anna Karenina
– Lincoln
– Inside Llewyn Davis
– Zero Dark Thirty

Secondary (likely to include one or more of the following):
– Argo
– The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
– Nero Fiddled
– Hyde Park on the Hudson
– Great Expectations
– Untitled Terrence Malick Project
– Life of Pi

Tertiary (doesn’t fit into any typical Academy genres, doesn’t have any prominent Academy filmmakers):

– Gravity
– Only God Forgives
– Moonrise Kingdom
– Wettest County
– Killing Them Softly
– Beasts of the Southern Wild

Wild Cards (depending on critical acclaim and early award buzz):
– The Dark Knight Rises
– Cloud Atlas
– World War Z
– Brave
– This is Forty
– On the Road

The Breakdown of the Categories
*Fits Into One or More Categories

The Filmmaker Credit (Academy favorites):
– Lincoln
– Zero Dark Thirty*
– Nero Fiddled*
– Les Miserables*
– The Master*
– Killing Them Softly
– Inside Llewyn Davis*
– The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey*
– Untitled Terrence Malick Project

Oscar Bait (fits into the stereotypes of the usual Oscar film, e.g., period pieces, British politics, British musicals, based on a British book):
– The Great Gatsby
– Les Miserables*
– Anna Karenina*
– The Master*
– Great Expectations*
– Lincoln*

Indie Possibilities:
– The Place Beyond the Pines
– Beasts of the Southern Wild
– The Silver Linings Playbook
– The Surrogate

Snub Compensation:
– The Dark Knight Rises
– Only God Forgives
– Moonrise Kingdom
– Cloud Atlas
– Gravity
– Argo

Release Date Uncertain:
– Stoker
– Trance
– Flight

Blockbusters:
– The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey*
– The Dark Knight Rises
– World War Z

The Best Picture category is typically the hardest to predict right now, so it’s safest to assume the Academy fraternity is going to have a piece of the action. Of course, a film with amazing buzz and a popular producer (a.k.a. Harvey Weinstein) but with a relative no-name director can sweep in at the last moment.

This really does seem to be the year of period pieces/historical novel adaptations: Anna Karenina, The Great Gatsby, and Les Miserables. There’s also a great surplus of biopics, with Lincoln and Hyde Park on the Hudson. Les Miserables is the safest bet. It’s Tom Hooper’s first film since The King’s Speech, it’s a musical (the Academy loved Moulin Rouge! and Chicago), it’s based off of a British play (based off of a French novel), and it includes favorites Russell Crowe and Helena Bonham Carter. Being slated for a late December release doesn’t hurt, either.

The Great Gatsby is a greater risk, though. It’s being released in 3-D and is directed by Baz Luhrman, whose last big movie was Australia; but a period setting and top-notch cast, including Leonardo DiCaprio, Carey Mulligan, Tobey McGuire, and Joel Edgerton, might work in its favor. If Luhrman can garner enough leverage from Moulin Rouge! and its 3-D is viewed more as Hugo than Ghost Rider 2, then it could work. Django Unchained is also considered a big contender. Sadistic slave owner plus bounty hunter doesn’t exactly equal a Forrest Gump-level welcome at Kodak Theater, but since it’s directed by Quentin Tarantino, he can get away with it. Pulp Fiction and Inglorious Basterds both garnered Best Picture nominations under his helm, so if it generates enough buzz and makes a decent run throughout the awards circuit, you can expect to see Unchained again.

Joe Wright made a mainstream detour with The Soloist and the thriller Hanna, but he’s back to form with Anna Karenina. He scored Keira Knightley a Best Actress nomination with Pride and Prejudice in 2006, and in 2008 scored with seven Academy Award nominations, including Best Picture for Atonement, which also won Best Picture at that year’s Golden Globes. Anna Karenina has a lot more going for it: he returns with star Keira Knightley in a period adaptation of Leo Tolstoy’s celebrated book, guaranteed to score his star a nomination, at the least. He never received a directing nomination for Atonement, so this may be the chance to correct the snub.

Lincoln and The Master are pretty much givens at this point. Lincoln is part political biopic (and acting showcase!) and part Steven Spielberg. Paul Thomas Anderson never won for There Will Be Blood, so it makes sense that there would be better attention paid to The Master, similar in its dark themes of corruption. Inside Llewyn Davis is Joel and Ethan Coen’s first film since True Grit, and, even with its indie feel, I’m confident with enough buzz it could be a big contender. Zero Dark Thirty is Kathryn Bigelow’s follow-up to The Hurt Locker. It’s controversial subject matter could really take it either way.

The Return of the King may have tied with Titanic and Ben-Hur for the most wins, but I’m more skeptical The Hobbit will get noticed, since it is divided into two parts. With its later December release date and some strong critical acclaim, Peter Jackson’s leverage could still take the film a long way. Argo is one of the trickier ones for me. Ben Affleck has been snubbed constantly since his directorial debut, Gone, Baby, Gone, and The Town both coming up with zilch, even when the latter was expected by many to get a Best Picture nomination.

Speaking of snubbed, Nicolas Winding Refn is back with Only God Forgives, and if the Academy feels any regret at all for not acknowledging Drive, then it might see the light of day. The Dark Knight Rises has bigger chances, though. Everyone knows the Best Picture category was widened to 10 because of the upset over The Dark Knight‘s Best Picture snub. If the Academy is still feeling sorry enough (after all, they did acknowledge Inception, somewhat), then it could pull off a Lord of the Rings-style final victory. Also in contention is Woody Allen’s Nero Fiddled, Terrence Malick’s untitled project, Hyde Park on the Hudson (more for its acting) and Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity.

Best Actor
Primary
– Daniel Day- Lewis, Lincoln
– Bill Murray, Hyde Park on the Hudson
– Leonardo DiCaprio, The Great Gatsby
– Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
– Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Secondary
– John Hawkes, The Surrogate
– Ryan Gosling, Only God Forgives or The Place Beyond the Pines
– Clint Eastwood, Trouble with the Curve
– Terence Stamp, Song for Marion
– Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly

Tertiary
– Tom Hardy, Wettest County
– Ben Affleck, Untitled Terrence Malick Project or Argo
– Bradley Cooper, The Place Beyond the Pines or The Silver Linings Playbook
– Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
– Justin Timberlake, Inside Llewyn Davis

Other Possibilities:
– Adrien Brody, Detachment
– Tom Hanks, Cloud Atlas

Best Actress
Primary
– Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
– Meryl Streep, Great Hope Strings
– Viola Davis, Won’t Back Down
– Laura Linney, Hyde Park on the Hudson
– Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby

Secondary
– Rachel McAdams, Untitled Terrence Malick Project
– Sandra Bullock, Gravity
– Helen Hunt, The Surrogate
– Rachel Harris, Natural Selection
– Helen Mirren, The Door

Tertiary
– Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
– Marion Cotillard, Lowlife, or Rust & Bone
– Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
– Julianne Moore, The Teacher or What Maisie Knew
– Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

Other Possibilities:
– Kristen Wiig, Imogene
– Mark Strong/Joel Edgerton, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Supporting Actor
Primary
– Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
– Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
– Joaquin Pheonix, The Master
– Sean Penn, Gangster Squad
– Joel Edgerton or Tobey McGuire, The Great Gatsby

Secondary
– John Goodman or Alan Arkin, Argo
– Guy Pearce, The Wettest County
– Albert Brooks, This is Forty
– Tom Hardy, Killing Them Softly
– Paul Giamatti, Cosmopolis

Tertiary
– Ralph Fiennes, Great Expectations
– Jude Law, Anna Karenina
– Joesph Gordon Levitt or Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
– Alec Baldwin or Jesse Eisenberg, Nero Fiddled
– Ray Liotta or James Gandolfini, Killing Them Softly

Other Possibilities:
– Robert DeNiro, The Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actress
Primary
– Sally Field, Lincoln
– Amy Adams, The Master
– Jessica Chastain, Untitled Malick Project or The Wettest County
– Helena Bonham Carter, Les Miserables or Great Expectations
– Olivia Williams or Olivia Colman, Hyde Park on the Hudson

Secondary
– Kelly MacDonald, Anna Karenina
– Vanessa Redgrace, Song for Marion
– Rachel Weisz, Untitled Terrence Malick Project
– Samantha Barks or Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
– Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis

Tertiary:
– Halle Berry, Cloud Atlas
– Isla Fischer, The Great Gatsby
– Kirsten Dunst, On the Road
– Annete Bening, Imogene
– Penelope Cruz or Ellen Page, Nero Fiddled

Other Possibilities:
– Tilda Swinton, Moonrise Kingdom

As of now, Daniel Day-Lewis is a shoe-in for a Best Actor nomination. Then again, so was Leonardo DiCaprio for J. Edgar, but we do have a little more faith in Spielberg’s consistency than Eastwood’s. Playing the lead in a biopic about an important historical figure is the makings of a winner. Daniel Day-Lewis already has his own Oscar, so the Academy might be a bit more partial to giving it to Bill Murray for Hyde Park on the Hudson. Murray has only been nominated once before, for Lost in Translation. Playing FDR gives him the same edge as Day-Lewis will have with Lincoln.

Leonardo DiCaprio would also normally be a big contender, but I predict he’ll get bigger love (quite possibly the win) for his turn as a sadistic slave owner in Django Unchained, where Tarantino gives him the Christoph Waltz treatment than for his title role in The Great Gatsby. Philip Seymour Hoffman, who won for Capote a few years back, seems like an obvious choice for The Master. Right now, Les Mis is the film frontrunner, and the Best Picture almost always gets a win for its lead actor (right, Jean Dujardin?).

John Hawkes takes on a shocking role in The Surrogate – he’s been recognized before with Winter’s Bone and on the radar with Martha Marcy May Marlene – and this powerful performance could get him a win, but it may be a bit strange, even for the Academy. If the film doesn’t get enough buzz, it might just disappear off the map completely, like Michael Shannon performance in Take Shelter, although that doesn’t account for the Damien Bichir surprise this year or Javier Bardem the year before in Biutiful.

Can Ryan Gosling get any recognition? With two sure-to-be-hit roles again this year (one reteam with Drive collaborator Nicolas Winding Refn), will he just be snubbed again? It seems that if either film gets recognized, he may see a shot at gold. The rest of the actors this year have stayed low profile so far, but we may see surprises from Tom Hardy (who has a chance for a star turn in John Hillcoat’s Wettest County), Clint Eastwood (in his first role since he swore off acting), Justin Timberlake (using the Coen brothers as a dramatic vehicle), Tom Hanks, Bradley Copper, Jamie Foxx, or Ben Affleck.

As I mentioned before, Leonardo DiCaprio is the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor, but his chances may be harshened by split votes for The Great Gatsby, as both it and Django Unchained are slated for a Christmas day release. Russell Crowe and Sean Penn both seem on track to be contenders, while Tobey McGuire and Joel Edgerton could get nods for Gatsby. Albert Brooks might get the Alan Arkin treatment in Judd Apatow’s This is Forty (Arkin won for Little Miss Sunshine, a similar dark comedy).

Paul Giamatti, who’s excellent in all of his roles, wasn’t seen at all last year for The Ides of March. Alec Baldwin and Jesse Eisenberg could be competing for spots in Woody Allen’s Nero Fiddled, Eisenberg a match made in heaven with the famed director and Baldwin’s smooth portico making him the perfect Allen leading man.

In recent years, actresses have been harder to predict. Last year, there were so many worthy performances from leading ladies that there was outrage when all of them wouldn’t fit into an unfortunate five slots. Keira Knightley is the frontrunner at this point. Anna Karenina is the perfect vehicle for an actress vying for a first Oscar. There may be an upset from Meryl Streep (who seems to be eager to beat out Katharine Hepburn with an inevitable fourth Oscar) with Great Hope Strings.

Streep, one of the greatest actresses of all time, seems not to be stopping anytime soon. But wait, Viola Davis is also in the running again this year with Won’t Back Down, the story of a mother trying to save her son’s bottom-ranked inner city school in Sandra Bullock Blind Side fashion. Will Streep take the Oscar from her again, or is the Academy sorry enough to make up for a Mickey Rourke-level snub and give it to Davis? That seems likely. Unfortunately, Daniel Barnz directs Down, and the director’s last movie was Beastly. Then again, The Iron Lady didn’t do well, critically, and it walked away with a prize for Streep. Also in contention seems to be Laura Linney for Hyde Park on the Hudson.

Rarely does a film take home top prize for its lead actress and lead actor, but it did the trick for Silence of the Lambs in 1992. Also one to look out for is Carey Mulligan in The Great Gatsby. She got a nomination for An Education in 2010 but was snubbed this year for several critically acclaimed supporting roles including those in Drive and Shame. Rachel McAdams stars in Terrence Malick’s untitled under-wraps project. While he didn’t garner a single acting nomination for any of his Tree of Life actors this year, McAdams has the chops to pull off any role, and with a good director finally taking the reins and the right amount of buzz, it’s completely possible that’s she’s a force to be reckoned with.

A foreseeable nod looks like Sandra Bullock for Gravity, but the Academy’s never shown much patience for Alfonso Cuaron, and it doesn’t look like they’ll do so now. Rachel Harris is in a critically acclaimed performance for Natural Selection, but it’s one that looks like it’ll lose Oscar traction in the long run. The supporting actress category is the easiest to consider right now. Sally Field is the frontrunner at this point, playing Abraham Lincoln’s wife in Lincoln, while Amy Adams, who always gets a nod, looks like she’ll outlast most of the competition for The Master.

Helena Bonham Carter is certain to get a nomination, either for Great Expectations, or, more likely, for Les Miserables, Tom Hooper having gotten her a supporting actress nod last year for The King’s Speech. Jessica Chastain could be welcomed back with open arms for one of several projects this year (most likely for her second collaboration with Terrence Malick). Or, one of Hyde Park on the Hudson’s supporting actresses, Olivia Williams and Olivia Colman, could take home the win.

Best Director
Primary
– Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
– Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
– Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
– Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
– Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Secondary
– Baz Luhrman, The Great Gatsby
– Terrence Malick, Untitled Terrence Malick Project
– Joe Wright, Anna Karenina
– Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
– Ben Affleck, Argo

Tertiary:
– Peter Jackson, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
– Roger Michell, Hyde Park on the Hudson
– Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
– Ang Lee, Life of Pi
– Woody Allen, Nero Fiddled

Other Possibilities:
– Nicolas Winding Refn, Only God Forgives
– Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight Rises
– Ben Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
– David O. Russell, The Silver Linings Playbook
– The Wachowski Brothers, Cloud Atlas
– Andrew Dominik, Killing Them Softly

The Best Director category can’t exactly be described as ‘fair’ in recent years. Best Picture is more often than not grouped with Best Director, so those are my predictions (because, in all fairness, David Fincher and Christopher Nolan should have Oscars). Steven Spielberg, Paul Thomas Anderson, and Tom Hooper seem like locks to me, but it could change. If Zero Dark Thirty makes a big splash, Kathryn Bigelow could get her second nomination. Quentin Tarantino seems like a given to me for Django, even though he probably won’t win.

Recently, there have been about twice as many Best Picture nominees as best directors, so you can switch any of the aforementioned directors with Terrence Malick, Baz Luhrman, Joe Wright, or Joel and Ethan Coen. If The Hobbit and The Dark Knight Rises make it to the Oscars, Peter Jackson and (maybe, but not likely) Christopher Nolan will get their respective nominations. Getting down to the previously snubbed, Ben Affleck has the biggest shot at making it big. Snubbed twice, speculators say this is his year for the Oscar, and, in that case, Argo may be his shot.

But the film generally plays against the type, so I’m not sure how Academy members would react to that. Speaking of the snubbed, there’s Nicolas Winding Refn, who, again, depending on the response to his film, may also garner a nomination. Joel and Ethan Coen almost always get a nomination (even sweeping out of nowhere last year with True Grit), but Inside Llewyn Davis is more of an indie-feeling film, so that’s 50/50.

Woody Allen could draw consecutive nominations, but Nero Fiddled seems more like Vicky Cristina Barcelona than Annie Hall to me. Alfonso Cuaron films are notoriously snubbed, Children of Men not even winning Best Cinematography in its year. Ang Lee adapts the famous, literary Life of Pi, but the story may actually be a little too literary for the Academy. Ben Zeitilin could pull a nomination depending on how well Beasts of the Southern Wild performs, it having picked up Best Picture at Sundance earlier this year. David O. Russell, The Wachowski Brothers, and Andrew Dominik are also possibilities.

Best Original Screenplay
Primary
– Woody Allen, Nero Fiddled
– Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
– Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
– Benh Zeitilin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
– Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Secondary
– Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
– Nicolas Winding Refn, Only God Forgives
– Derek Cianfrance, The Place Beyond the Pines
– Ben Lewin, The Surrogate
– Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Tertiary
– Brenda Chapman and Irene Mecchi, Brave
– Terrence Malick, Untitled Terrence Malick Project
– Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
– Zoe Kazan, He Loves Me
– Billy Bob Thorton, Jayne Mansfield’s Car

Other Possibilities:
– Martin McDonagh, Seven Psychopaths
– Wentworth Miller, Stoker

Best Adapted Screenplay
Primary
– John Logan, Lincoln
– Joel and Ethan Coen, Gambit
– William Nicholson, Les Miserables
– David Magee, Life of Pi
– Jose Rivera, On the Road

Secondary
– Christ Terrio, Argo
– David O. Russel, The Silver Linings Playbook
– Baz Luhrman and Craig Pearce, The Great Gatsby
– Nick Cave, Wettest County
– The Wachowski brothers, Cloud Atlas

Tertiary
– Tom Stoppard, Anna Karenina
– Richard Nelson, Hyde Park on the Hudson
– Will Beall, The Gangster Squad
– David Cronenberg, Cosmopolis
– Fran Walsh, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Other Possibilities:
– Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight Rises
– Andrew Dominik, Killing Them Softly

Best Animated Feature
Primary
– Brave
– Frankenweenie
– The Secret World of Arriety
– Paranorman
– Around June
– The Guardians

Other Possibilities:
– The Lorax
– Dorothy of Oz
– Hotel Transylvania
– Madagascar 3

Technical Categories:
Visual Effects
– The Dark Knight Rises
– The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
– Prometheus
– The Avengers
– John Carter

Cinematography
– Lincoln
– Zero Dark Thirty
– The Hunger Games
– Untitled Terrence Malick Project
– The Dark Knight Rises

Art Direction
– The Great Gatsby
– Les Miserables
– Anna Karenina
– The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
– The Dark Knight Rises

Film Editing
– Zero Dark Thirty
– Lincoln
– The Great Gatsby
– Les Miserables
– The Dark Knight Rises

Sound Editing

– The Dark Knight Rises
– Zero Dark Thirty
– World War Z
– The Avengers
– Brave

Sound Mixing

– The Dark Knight Rises
– Zero Dark Thirty
– Les Miserables
– The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
– Brave

Best Costume Design

– Anna Karenina
– Les Miserables
– The Great Gatsby
– Great Expectations
– Lincoln

Best Makeup

– The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
– Hyde Park on the Hudson
– Dark Shadows

Best Original Score

– The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
– The Dark Knight Rises
– Lincoln
– Les Miserables
– Brave

I’ve excluded Foreign Language, Documentary, Shorts, and Original Song categories, because at this point it just seems ludicrous to speculate on something not available to preview, the Foreign Language and Documentary winners often made by newcomers.

Regarding the technical and screenwriting categories, it seems obvious to me that Woody Allen will get nominated for anything he does. While the Best Picture nominees almost always get nominated, most of them are based off of classic books and such, and as they’ve been adapted several times it seems Academy members would be less inclined to view the work as “creative.” I thought it would make sense that The Dark Knight Rises would be nominated for most of what it was nominated for last time (with seven technical nominations), and almost all recent Pixar movies have been nominated for Original Score (Up even winning in its year), sound mixing, and editing. The Hobbit looks like it will rule, visually.

On that note, I leave you to contemplate the rest of my choices. For me, it’s just really interesting to use statistics and play the Oscars like a horse race, because when January finally arrives and the nominations are out, something always pops up that surprises you. Right now, this looks like a reasonable match up for each of the categories – although I’m still hoping we’ll see some love for Christopher Nolan, Nicolas Winding Refn, and Peter Jackson.