A multi-part series in which we look at the remaining Dancing with the Stars finalists as the season finale approaches.

Highlights:

Week 4’s cry-inducing contemporary

Week 8’s shockingly intricate salsa

Week 9’s elegant Viennese waltz

Lowlight:

Week 7’s ‘70s jazz, featuring Noah the Pimp

How would a man missing an arm and a leg be able to compete on Dancing with the Stars? Surely he’d get an A for effort, and be sent packing in the first few weeks. Not so! When the season started, Noah and Sharna shocked everyone by being able to deliver incredible routines despite Noah’s lack of limbs. Their performances all season have been nothing short of iconic.

For the first three weeks, everyone was just so amazed by the fact Noah was dancing that they didn’t look too closely at his dancing. This arc was concluded in the contemporary dance of Most Memorable Year week, telling the story of Noah’s war injuries and recovery, and emotionally wrecking everyone watching. But after that, people were no longer giving Noah a pass just for getting on the floor and dancing. After a few weeks’ slump, Sharna cottoned on, and began giving Noah routines full of content that he executed well. It got to the point where no one was very surprised to find him in the semifinals.

But the semifinals are tricky to read for Noah. On the one hand, Noah played his final emotional trump card and proposed to his girlfriend on air, reducing the whole ballroom to tears and getting voted through to next week. On the other hand, his advancement came at the expense of frontrunner Nastia Liuken, an extraordinary dancer who deserved a shot at the trophy. This has created a tidal wave of backlash against Noah, with the sense that he “usurped” a better dancer’s spot in the finals through emotional manipulation. So whether that backlash is justified or accurate, it will combat the emotional goodwill Noah’s built up all season, and his success in the finals depends almost entirely on which side wins out.

The pro: Of the newer crop of pros (those who joined since season 13), Sharna made the most impact, immediately becoming a fan favorite for her fierce dance style and her no-nonsense coaching. The producers sensed this, and rewarded her with presumptive finalist Charlie White for her third season, when new pros usually spend years paying their dues before being rewarded with ringers. Charlie was (unjustly?) eliminated in the semifinals, making this season Sharna’s first final. She has acquitted herself amazingly this season in choreographing for Noah, and her choreography will be a big advantage in the coming week.

Biggest advantage: Sentimentality. People feel sympathy for him and what he went through, and he knows how to evoke emotion (see: his backstory, the proposal).

Notable precedents: There are two obvious precedents for Noah, both of whom made the top two. JR Martinez was also a scarred war veteran, and became the season 13 champ with Karina. Amy Purdy is also a double amputee, and was the runner up in Season 18 with Derek. However, neither of them is quite an apples-to-apples comparison with Noah, because neither was anywhere close to being as limited dance-wise as Noah is. Of note, both those times the pro long overdue for a win ended up winning (Karina and Maks, respectively); such a scenario would give Rumer and Val the trophy this time. Other comparisons can be made to fan-favorites whose dancing was not the best, like the Osbourne siblings, both of whom landed in third place.

Odds of winning: If Sharna can deliver the ultimate wow routine and Noah can reduce everyone to tears again, they might pull an upset and walk away with the trophy. For now, however, they are very firmly the underdogs in the finale. Odds of victory: 20%