A multi-part series in which we look at the remaining Dancing with the Stars finalists as the season finale approaches.

Highlights:

Week 4’s surprisingly elegant Quickstep:

Week 9’s nearly perfect (curse you, Bruno!) Viennese Waltz:

Week 10’s atmospheric and unplugged Argentine Tango:

Lowlight: Week 7’s disappointing Jive, where Jack was too exhausted to keep up

Jack Osbourne is pretty much the perfect DwtS contestant. He has zero dance experience, but is actually a competent dancer and has improved by leaps and bounds. He really cares about the competition and wants to win, but never reeks of desperation. He has a dreadful disease that is acknowledged but not dwelled on. He has a great self-deprecating sense of humor that plays well off his partner. In short, every possible box for DwtS success is checked off.

Jack was good from the get-go, delivering good routines but usually not at the top of the leaderboard. He hit a mid-season funk in weeks 6 and 7, which gave him the undeserved status of “underdog.” But then he finally lived up to his potential in week 8 with a stunning tango, and has been delivering top-notch performances ever since. He seems to have peaked at just the right time.

More important than his dancing is his personality – his rehearsal packages were always the best of the night. He and Cheryl have the perfect partnership – she tries to be serious and stern, while he makes her (and us) laugh with his humor. Cheryl seems totally rejuvenated this season, complimenting him more than any other of her fifteen partners, and acting quite tenderly towards him when the occasion warrants it.

The turning point for Jack was the elimination of Elizabeth Berkley in week 9. She was the only contestant who was as much fun as Jack – her chemistry with Val, her sense of fun, and her innate dance ability placed her as the favorite to win. But with her gone, the audience has rallied around Jack, with him seeming to be the clear favorite (among online commenters at least).

The pro: Cheryl is the first two-time winner of DwtS, and responsible for the show’s most iconic routine – the “Save a Horse, Ride a Cowboy” freestyle. Unfortunately, Cheryl has not been able to reclaim the glory of her first two seasons. She nearly always advances far, but her choreography has grown uninspired over the years, and was not enough to cinch the trophy. But Jack has invigorated her anew, and she’s in top form this season. Cheryl has gone the longest time without winning among the pros in this final – fourteen seasons – and I think fans are ready for her to get her third Mirrorball.

Biggest advantage: Jack has many advantages, chief being his likability. His humor and charm combined with sympathy for his MS will get viewers voting in droves. The fact that he’s not a dancer but has become one will work in his favor. As long as Cheryl delivers on the choreography for the freestyle, this is Jack’s to lose.

Notable precedents: Obviously Jack’s sister Kelly Osbourne is a good comparison, and she made it to the finals in season 9, finishing in third place. Even better, though, is comparing the two of them to the Osmonds. Both are brother and sister duos from famous entertainment families, where the sister tried first and came in third. For the Osmonds, after Marie got third place in season 5, Donny Osmond beat out Kelly Osbourne in season 9 to take the trophy. Hopefully, history will repeat itself for Jack.

Odds of winning: I’m liking Jack’s odds, and expect him to win. It’s far from a certain thing, because both Corbin and Amber are much better dancers. This is honestly one of the most wide-open finals in the show’s history. But Jack’s chances are better than the others’, so I’ll give him a 45% chance of winning.