Hello everyone, my name’s Irvin, and I’ll be covering Dancing with the Stars from now on.

I wrote a few pieces about it last year that readers seemed to like, so I’ll be recapping all the shows from now on. I did ballroom dancing for thirteen years, and know people who know some of the pro dancers – I specialize in the Latin American dances (Cha-Cha, Samba, Rhumba, and Jive) so I’ll have more to say on those, but I am familiar with the Standard ones as well. So I believe I’m qualified to tell you when the dancing is good, and when the judges are just talking crazy (a lot of the time!). I’ve also been watching this show for eleven seasons, so I know how it all works and what trends have emerged in it.

In recaps of the Monday shows, I’ll give odds on who might be going home that week – everyone has at least a 1 in 100 chance, because Sabrina Bryan proved that you never know what might happen. I’ll be happy to hear who you think is going home in the comments! We have two months of spray tans and fringe ahead of us, so let’s get to know each other.

Prom night on DwtS seems to be the absolutely perfect theme. Everything was so deliciously cheesy, from the hilarious group number in the opening to the adorable prom photos of Brooke and Tom. It also gave about two thirds of the stars and pros the chance to tragically lament how they missed prom. So, cue the music, and let’s welcome our stars!

First Place, 25 points: Kellie and Derek (Jive). There’s not much to say about Kellie’s jive to “Footloose.” It was a good dance, but to me it just didn’t feel as dynamic as the music warranted. There also was not very much jiving, tricks and kicks with nary a triple-step in sight. On a side note, has any partner ever complained about Derek and his displeased face? Not in my memory, so it’s curious that Kellie did. Regardless, Kellie is clearly a frontrunner this season. I would be surprised if she didn’t make the finals, and armed with Derek she’s practically guaranteed to make it to week eight or nine. Odds of elimination: 1 in 100.

Second Place (tie), 24 points: Zendaya and Val (Viennese Waltz). It was a solid dance, very floaty with lots of spins. Bonus points for the emotional connection to grandma. I expect Zendaya to stick it out until the halfway point based on her dancing prowess, but I think we might be in for a repeat of Sabrina Bryan’s shocking elimination, because no one knows who the heck Zendaya is. (For those wondering, she stars in Disney Channel’s Shake It Up, which is not a very popular show from what I can tell – only three million viewers usually, and certainly very few who also watch DwtS.) Still, there are a lot of bad dancers to weed out first, so Zendaya should be safe. Odds of elimination: 1 in 100.

Second Place (tie), 24 points: Jacoby and Karina (Rhumba). Jacoby was the surprise success of the week, with a technically adequate and sensual rhumba. But more importantly, his dry wit and kooky sense of humor is coming across now, and making him very likable. Karina seems to be enjoying the partnership, which is a good sign. He also gave us our first fully shirtless dance, which gets him major votes historically. And tonight, he went for the tear-jerker Hurricane Katrina story, so I think there is absolutely no chance of him being eliminated. He’s my pick for the dark horse who may make it to the finals. Odds of elimination: 1 in 100.

Third Place (tie), 23 points: Ali and Mark (Viennese Waltz). I was pleasantly surprised to see a solid, no frills Viennese Waltz from these two, since Mark is always breaking rules in traditional Standard dances. They gave the show a charmingly over-the-top start, with Cupid firing an arrow at them, and some delightfully cheesy acting at the beginning of the dance. Then, Len actually played an April Fools prank by pretending not to like this dance! It was so unexpected, that he got EVERYONE. Also, I think Ali is going for the “sexual awakening” storyline this season. Week one the world found out she has boobs, and this week was all about her “never having been in love.” It could work for her, especially since she doesn’t seem to have a huge personality that’ll captivate viewers. Ali opened the show, which means that two hours later people barely remember she’s there, but she’s still too good to not vote for. I think there’s a reasonable chance she makes the finals, and she should be safe to dance another day. Odds of elimination: 1 in 50.

Third Place (tie), 23 points: Victor and Lindsay (Contemporary). Ugh, I don’t like all the contemporary/jazz stuff going on in what should be a ballroom dance competition, but what can you do. Anyway, I’ve no way of knowing how good this dance was, but it sure appeared to be good to me (those lifts!), and the judges agreed. And I like Lindsay as a pro – last week, she became the first one in the six years I’ve watched to say, “Sure, you could have a tantrum right now, but we’re performing on national TV regardless on Monday. So let’s suck it up and work, yeah?” Seriously, when you have four or five days to prep a new dance, does everyone really not mind storming out and losing one of the days? Unfortunately, new pros do not have a good track record on this show (the last time a new pro made it to the finals was Lacey Shwimmer on season 7, and the time before was Julianne Hough in season 4). This is evident by two of the three new pros being the bottom two last week. Especially in a season with a cast of stars that no one knows (seriously, who are all these people?), more and more fans will vote for their favorite pros. Hopefully Victor and Lindsay’s dance this week was good enough to save them, but there’s a very real chance this promising partnership will meet a premature end. Odds of elimination: 1 in 5.

Fourth Place (tie), 21 points: Ingo and Kym (Paso Doble). This couple just looks like they’re having so much fun – Kym’s giggling at being jokingly called “prom queen… and the slut” were adorable. The Paso is a very difficult dance, and Ingo did okay with it. More importantly, the entire thing was a laugh to watch, with the whole prom queen/bad boy theme that they reeeeally committed to. Also, Ingo had a mirrorball helmet!! I totally want one just like it. Ingo’s fanbase (for General Hospital) is a powerful one, as has been demonstrated on the show ample times (think Kelly Monaco), and those fans should be extra feisty this week in light of the show’s golden anniversary. So I think Ingo is safe for a while. Odds of elimination: 1 in 100.

Fourth Place (tie), 21 points: Sean and Peta (Cha-Cha). This number really irked me. Not that it wasn’t fun (I’d never claim “YMCA” isn’t fun), but actually doing the Y-M-C-A move three or four times is not a cha-cha. There was very little content in this number, and what was there was not particularly good. The judges overscored them because the number was so high-energy, I’d have given them a six at best. But Sean and Peta are by no means the weakest dancers, and the Bachelor fanbase doubtless overlaps with DwtS a lot, so I’d guess they’re safe. Odds of elimination: 1 in 30.

Fourth Place (tie), 21 points: Lisa and Gleb (Viennese Waltz). Lisa’s Viennese Waltz was a big step up from her previous two dances, even if it wasn’t particularly memorable. More memorable is that Lisa is (very wisely) whoring out her partner to get votes. Maks is gone, and Val has to keep his clothes on with a teenage partner, so Gleb is perfectly poised to fill the shirtless Russian pro void the Chmerkovskiys left. Lisa’s “Take your kit off” strategy will surely be effective, but I fear it may not be enough. The fact is that a Real Housewife just isn’t particularly likable, and even if people know her they won’t necessarily vote for her. And Gleb is a new pro, which means trouble (as discussed above). I think there’s a good chance they end up in the bottom two again this week. Odds of elimination: 1 in 4.

Fifth Place, 18 points: Andy and Sharna (Cha-Cha). This couple’s dances are the most enjoyable hot messes since the days of Carson Kressley in season 13. Technically, it’s atrocious, but they are so much fun to watch (not to mention, Sharna looked smoking hot today). Andy ripping his shirt open at the end was so funny and unexpected, it even had Bruno covering his eyes! Andy mixes together a lot of DwtS tropes – he’s the goofy and funny dancer, yet he also wants this REALLY BADLY. I feel like those two potentially cancel each other out – if he is going for comedy routines, he shouldn’t make his desperation so blatant. And the rehearsal footage is always so melodramatic – generally, it’s better to save the “DwtS means everything to me!!” stuff until at least the middle of the season, so the audience can become similarly invested. (Textbook example: Kelly Osbourne spent the last third of season 9 on the constant verge of tears, and everyone was constantly getting teary-eyed along with her because we’d gone on this whole journey with her. It got her to the finals in the end.) Andy and Sharna are also in a perilous position because she is a new pro, though they were the only such couple to not be in the bottom two last time. The comedy and likability of this couple should save them for another week or two, though their ouster would not be completely unexpected. Odds of elimination: 1 in 6.

Sixth Place, 16 points: DL and Cheryl (Salsa). What a complete disaster. Their dance had practically no salsa in it, and what little was there was horrible. They were overscored – this mess certainly did not warrant a six, and even fives were generous. They might stick around another week or two due to Cheryl’s fanbase (since I can’t imagine DL’s fans watch DwtS), though hopefully they’ll be sent packing tomorrow night and be put out of their misery (since neither DL nor Cheryl seem to be having an especially good time). Odds of elimination: 1 in 5.

Last Place, 15 points: Wynonna and Tony (Samba). This is a real shame – everyone so desperately wants Wynonna to be good. The judges offer optimistic critiques. Wynonna really tries, and Tony comes up with ever more fun concepts for these dances, with absurd appearances that just can’t detract from the unfortunate fact that Wynonna is a terrible dancer. Tony’s fans are not as vociferous after his long-overdue win last season, but between his fans and Wynonna’s, they should stick around for another week or two, though it’s possible they don’t. Odds of elimination: 1 in 10.

So, I think Lisa and Gleb will be the ones heading home, though I’m hoping it will be DL and Cheryl. Victor and Lindsay, Andy and Sharna, and Wynonna and Tony all stand a reasonable chance as well; the others should be safe. Who do you think is going home? Who did you vote for?