After nine weeks of dancing, shocking eliminations and shocking scores, we have finally reached the finale of Dancing with the Stars: All Stars.

For the first time in the show’s history, there’s three women competing for the coveted Mirror Ball Trophy: Kelly Monaco (Season 1 champ) with Val Chmerkovskiy, Shawn Johnson (Season 8 champ) with Derek Hough, and Melissa Rycroft (Season 8, third-place) with Tony Dovolani.

Who will win? I have been devoutly watching this show for eleven seasons and have almost always correctly predicted the winner (even if I didn’t like it). So I will analyze each of the three finalists to determine what their chances of winning are.

Before I start, let us have no pretense that judges’ scores matter now. The contestants are currently within 3 points of each other, and that is where they will stay. The judges left all their paddles below 8.5 at home, and points haven’t determined who gets eliminated all season. Besides, the final dance almost always results in perfect 30s all around. So it will come down to whom viewers vote for.

Kelly and Val

Kelly is definitely in the weakest position at the moment – if she wins it’ll be a miracle. Not through any fault of her own, but because the other two are more compelling options.

Each contestant needs some kind of storyline throughout the show to keep people interested. Young boys go for the “becoming a man” one, larger women go for the “OMG weight loss” one, and so on. Melissa and Shawn both have redemption storylines going on, which can be very powerful. Kelly and Val instead went for the showmance storyline – one that is fairly unproven. While her romance with Val makes for compelling TV (for some viewers) and a good reason to keep them around all ten weeks, it’s not a motivator to make them win.

Also working against her is the fact that the showmance has made her so very dreary. The first few weeks, Kelly was cracking jokes, and had a witty back-and-forth with Val that hooked the viewers and helped them survive the tumultuous initial few episodes. Then the romance began in earnest, and now she’s full of feeling stares and serious speeches. Compare that with Melissa and Shawn’s vibrant personalities, and Kelly’s odds don’t look good.

It’s hard to say whether her partner, Val, is an asset. On the one hand, he has never worn a shirt during the season, which can get them a large portion of the viewer vote. On the other hand, as a new pro he does not have an established fanbase yet, and there’s no feeling that he’s due for a win now.

As for tonight’s performance: their favorite dance, the Paso Doble, was an excellent choice, and probably gave them the edge in that round. The dance is very dramatic and was technically superb; it’s a dynamic dance that holds viewers’ attention. The freestyle, on the other hand, was largely unimpressive. It was good, just nothing outstanding. There was also a huge feeling of “been there, done that,” referring back to when Jennifer Grey herself danced to “I’ve Had the Time of My Life” in Season 11. I don’t think it did Kelly any favors. It would have been a solid dance during one of the weeks, but it did not live up to the hype of a supersized freestyle.

So on the whole, I just don’t see much that Kelly has going for her. Her biggest asset is the ridiculously large fanbase her soap opera has – if they are loyal enough to vote in droves, that could clinch the Mirror Ball for Kelly. Odds of winning: 15%

Melissa and Tony

Melissa has a lot going for her this time around. It’s clear that the judges really want her to win, since they’ve been awarding her perfect 30s left and right the last few weeks. As Melissa insists on reminding us, again and again, she’s the only one of the three to have never won a season of DWTS. This could be really great for her, since viewers would want her to walk away with a Mirrorball Trophy for the first time. On the other hand, she’s harped on about this fact so much in the last week, it’s bordering on desperation, which is never attractive (see: Gilles’s elimination two weeks ago). I think we’re all clear on her redemption storyline at this point.

Perhaps the biggest thing Melissa has going for her is that her stiff competition is Shawn Johnson… the one who beat her the first time around, in Season 8. Season 8 was easily the show’s best finale, a fact made obvious by all three finalists’ presence in the all-star season. That time around, Melissa took third place, while Shawn won over Gilles by less than 1% in the show’s closest vote ever. Many pegged Gilles to be the one to beat this season, since those who voted for him and were so narrowly beaten would want redemption for Gilles. But Gilles reeked of a mixture of desperation and arrogance, and was finally kicked out two weeks ago. By that point, the opportunity for redemption after Season 8 had shifted to Melissa who had quietly chugged along all season and now emerged as a frontrunner.

If it were anyone else going up against Melissa, she probably wouldn’t have stood a chance. But making it to the finals a second time, only to once again be foiled by Shawn, might seem like just too cruel an injury to inflict on poor Melissa.

More important than even that, however, is the fact that Melissa is partnered with Tony. Tony is an absolutely beloved pro, he is the “nice guy” of the ballroom. Tony has been on the show every season except the very first. He has only made the final three twice, and both times came in third place. That’s largely because he gets dreadful partners most of the time (the man survived Kate Gosselin – he deserves a trophy just for that). Now, there is just a quiet consensus that more than any of the contestants or other pros, Tony deserves his first Mirrorball Trophy.

Other pros, once eliminated, have stated they’re rooting for Melissa so Tony can finally win (Karina Smirnoff said this last week). And even Tony, who almost never speaks out about his lack of success, has been saying the last few weeks that he has “waited fourteen seasons for this.” Especially true for longtime fans of the show, who have watched Tony struggle with difficult partners, all while being graceful and flashing his blinding-white smile, there’s a sense that he finally deserves to win. That would show everyone that nice guys don’t finish last.

Unfortunately, Melissa and Tony’s dancing tonight might have robbed them of the trophy, despite their perfect 60. Their “Samba” (the one without any Samba steps), while colorful and fun, just doesn’t stand out compared to Kelly’s dynamic Paso or Shawn’s exciting Quickstep. But worse was the Freestyle. While the dance itself was great, and the judges fawned over it, it broke one of the cardinal rules of DWTS Freestyle: all those that venture outside of ballroom dancing end up short of the Mirrorball. That’s probably what made Melissa get third last time, with their hip-hop freestyle. Erin Andrews and Maks did a contemporary dance like this in Season 10’s final, and came in third. In Season 5’s final, which was Mel B’s to lose, she and Maks did a hip-hop number… and came in second to Helio. The list goes on and on.

So in this case, history is working against them. There has never been a winner of DWTS who did not have ballroom in their freestyle. Admittedly, DWTS this season is much less about ballroom dancing than usual, but I believe that’s still what the audience wants (otherwise, they’d watch So You Think You Can Dance). If the audience forgives the freestyle and loves Tony enough, Melissa might win it all. As it is, there is a reasonable chance she will. Odds of winning: 35%

Shawn and Derek

It has been evident, since about Week 3, that this was Shawn’s competition to lose. Not many thought so before the season started (again, see the stuff about Gilles, and there was Sabrina Bryan’s compelling redemption arc to consider, and so forth). But Shawn and Derek’s dances have just been so GOOD, that they’re impossible to ignore.

Derek is, indisputably, the best professional on the show. Like him or hate him, his track record speaks for itself. He is the only three-time champion, has never finished below seventh place (and that was after a showmance didn’t pan out – heed this, Val!), and finishes in third place on average. He has received more perfect scores than any other pro, though some of them have been around longer. His choreography is outstanding, and he has been nominated for three Emmys. All of this is why he has a huge fanbase.

And Derek has far and away outdone himself this season. He throws all of his craziest ideas and hardest choreography at Shawn, who did it without even breaking a sweat until the last week. Their dances have been one spectacle after another, and several of them were hailed (rightfully so) by the judges as the best in the show’s history.

As for Shawn, she has the perfect strategy this season. She is young, lots of fun, and just plain adorable. She was so innocent, which served to make her even cuter when juxtaposed with all the innuendo and talk about sexuality. Her bubbly personality and the strength of her dancing carried her through three quarters of the competition.

Then, last week, she played her trump card. This season is her redemption after a failed Olympic comeback – so while Melissa may be getting DWTS redemption, Shawn is getting redemption in life. And she very shrewdly did not harp on about it all season, only mentioning it once or twice, so people wouldn’t get sick of it. Instead, at the eleventh hour, she starts saying how badly she wants this, and what it would mean to her, as sad music plays in the background… it was masterfully done, and my guess is that it will win her the Mirrorball. The main thing Shawn and Derek have working against them is their past success. Between the two of them, they have four Mirrorball Trophies, including one at Melissa’s expense. There could just be a feeling of “they’ve won enough, give someone else a chance.”

This also might work in conjunction with what some might view as arrogance. This week for their favorite dance, they did their Quickstep – which, while a showstopper, also flagrantly breaks the rules. And they did the same thing two weeks ago. The judges docked them a few points, which clearly doesn’t matter. But their attitude of disregarding the judges could be a perceived lack of humility, which would be dangerous when combined with their past success. Maybe to this effect, both of them have very clearly stated that they break the rules because they care about putting on a great show for the fans. This has worked for them in the past, and will likely continue to hold true for one more night.

Additionally, they had the best freestyle of the night. Naturally, Derek would not disappoint when confronted with a lavish production number. With the Fab Five (the exceedingly popular Women’s Gymnastics gold-winning US team) as backup dancers for a number that combined Shawn’s gymnastic prowess with a medley of ballroom dances paying homage to Shawn and Derek’s hit numbers throughout the season, it was perfect. And that dance might have given them the victory.

Lastly, Shawn’s potential fanbase as an Olympian is far broader than that of a soap opera (Kelly) or The Bachelor (Melissa). While they may not be as dedicated as fans of soaps or reality shows, at least most people know who Shawn Johnson is. So there’s a good chance of Shawn picking up the votes of fans of the already-eliminated stars. So all in all, despite being a cruel blow for Melissa, I still think Shawn and Derek are the likely winners. Odds of winning: 50%.

Who do you think will be the champion of champions? Will Kelly Monaco’s fanbase rally? Will Melissa be chosen to give Tony his first win? Or will Shawn get her longed-for redemption? My money’s on Shawn, with Melissa as runner-up. Sound off with your predictions in the comments below!