Now that we’re halfway through Arrow season 4, we reconsider the odds of who is in the grave.

At the beginning of Arrow season 4, we theorized about who might be in the grave. Now, 12 episodes into the season, we rethink what we know.

Not in the grave: Felicity

After her scare of being shot and paralyzed, we saw her in the flash forward in a car, sitting with Oliver. The two appear to have broken up, as they sit as far apart from each other as possible and neither is wearing a ring. Felicity tells Oliver to “kill the son of a bitch.”

Most likely: Thea

After “Unchained,” Thea looks like the most plausible candidate for the grave, as she is currently suffering from the effects of her resurrection via the Lazarus Pit. She fell into a coma after refusing to take anyone else’s life to extend her own. Her death, then, would not actually be related to Damien Darhk but Ra’s al Ghul, who fatally injured her in season 3.

Felicity’s statement about killing someone was implied to be about Damien Darhk, but a name is never stated. She could be talking about Malcolm, who is tied up in Thea’s fate. Additionally, Thea’s funeral is one Barry would be likely to attend but not be extremely torn up about missing because Zoom attacked Central City.

Also likely: Diggle

The second most likely with the information we have now is Diggle. One of the few people whose death could tear up both Felicity and Oliver the way this death appears to have would be the third member of the original Team Arrow. Diggle is finally getting some closure with his brother, and tearing up a family after a time of peace seems like something Arrow would do.

Moreover, Barry would attend Diggle’s funeral, though he doesn’t know the man as well as he knows Oliver or Felicity, which would explain his attitude in the grave-side flash forward.

Also likely: Quentin Lance

It’s miraculous that Captain Lance has survived as long as he had on this show. In addition to his health issues, Lance’s lifespan seems limited based on his involvement with Damien Darhk. Lance seemed to have given up his cover by telling Oliver where Darhk’s hideout is, though it’s unclear whether Darhk ever learned of that since Anarky arrived at the hideout before he did.

Either way, Lance seems like the most “expendable” of the characters on the show, as he is the one with the tightest tie to the core characters while remaining on the periphery. He’s gotten closer to Team Arrow as the seasons have gone on, so his death would definitely affect Oliver and Felicity. Barry has also met Lance a few times so might come to his funeral.

Honorable mentions

A few other options that seem less likely than the three above include Lyla, who will likely become more involved with A.R.G.U.S. again now that Amanda Waller is dead; Donna Smoak, for her connection to Felicity; or Andy Diggle, since he’s finally finding some peace in his life.

Arrow airs Wednesdays at 8:00 p.m. ET on The CW.

Who do you think is in the grave halfway through ‘Arrow season 4?