Tony Award nominations are coming Tuesday morning. Now that all the shows have opened and the Tony committee has made its rulings, it’s time to guess who’s going to get a nomination and a fighting chance on June 8.

Of the many different awards, the Tonys are a unique award. Because the Broadway community is so small, the pool of potential nominees is of a size where each one can be viewed. The Tonys also have no accurate precursors, unlike the Guild awards before the Oscars. There are three other awards that Broadway productions compete for – the Outer Critics Circle, Drama Desk, and Drama League Awards. But all of them lump the Broadway shows with the off-Broadway shows in single categories, so the results are skewed. The Drama League Awards are even less help, because they lump all actors and actresses together for a single “Distinguished Performance” category, and don’t hand out any awards besides that and Best Musical/Play/Revival.

I’m just going to analyze the major musical categories – I’ve not seen enough plays to make educated guesses. This is a unique year for the Tonys – the last two years were essentially two horse races for the get-go (Kinky Boots and Matilda last year, Once and Newsies the year before). In 2011, Book of Mormon swept everything before other shows could even enter the conversation. This year, for the first time in a long time, the Tonys are wide open – there are a lot of really good shows, and no real front-runners.

I’ll go through the Acting categories first, then proceed with Director and the writing categories, before finishing with Best Revival and Best Musical. Before starting, here are the sixteen musicals that will be competing for Tonys this year: First Date, Soul Doctor, Big Fish, A Night With Janis Joplin, After Midnight, A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder, Beautiful, The Bridges of Madison County, Rocky, Aladdin, Les Miserables, If/Then, Bullets Over Broadway, Violet, Hedwig and the Angry Inch, and Cabaret. (For those wondering, Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar is considered a play with music, not a musical.)

Best Actress

Potential Nominees:
• Krysta Rodriguez (Casey in First Date)
• Mary Bridget Davies (Janis Joplin in A Night With Janis Joplin)
• Fantasia Barrino (Special Guest Star in After Midnight)
• Jessie Mueller (Carole King in Beautiful) (DD and OCC nominations)
• Kelli O’Hara (Francesca in The Bridges of Madison County) (DD and OCC nominations)
• Courtney Reed (Jasmine in Aladdin)
• Idina Menzel (Elizabeth in If/Then) (DD nomination)
• Sutton Foster (Violet in Violet) (DD and OCC nominations)
• Michelle Williams (Sally Bowles in Cabaret) (OCC nomination)

There are four absolute shoe-ins in this category – Jessie Mueller, Kelli O’Hara, Idina Menzel, and Sutton Foster. The latter three women are Tony magnets, with eleven nominations and three wins among them. In any other year, any one of these four would have the Tony in the bag, but here they’re at least assured a nomination. The four musicals are essentially starring vehicles for them, and they own that stage.

The fifth slot is more of a toss-up. Sally Bowles in this same production of Cabaret earned a Tony in 1998, and the original Sally Bowles got a nomination in 1967. With that in mind, Michelle Williams is the most likely choice for a nomination. But Mary Bridget Davies was widely praised as Janis Joplin, and if Tony voters’ memories stretch that far back (the show closed a few months ago), Davies could steal that fifth slot. And though I doubt it will happen, I would love to see Krysta Rodriguez sneak in there for her excellent work on First Date.

Predictions: Jessie Mueller, Kelli O’Hara, Idina Menzel, Sutton Foster, and Michelle Williams.

Best Actor

Potential Nominees
• Zachary Levi (Aaron in First Date)
• Eric Anderson (Shlomo in Soul Doctor)
• Norbert Leo Butz (Edward Bloom in Big Fish)
• Jefferson Mays (the members of the D’Ysquith Family in A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder) (DD and OCC nominations)
• Bryce Pinkham (Monty Navarro in A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder) (DD and OCC nominations)
• Steven Pasquale (Robert in The Bridges of Madison County) (DD nomination)
• Andy Karl (Rocky Balboa in Rocky) (DD and OCC nominations)
• Adam Jacobs (Aladdin in Aladdin) (DD nomination)
• Ramin Karimloo (Jean Valjean in Les Miserables)
• Will Swenson (Javert in Les Miserables)
• Zach Braff (David Shayne in Bullets Over Broadway)
• Neil Patrick Harris (Hedwig in Hedwig and the Angry Inch) (DD and OCC nominations)

What a field! Of these twelve candidates, nine or ten of them should be sure things for nominations, if not Tonys… yet there are only five possible nominees. I don’t envy the Tony votes this decision, and I think we should all be prepared for accusations of snubbing come Tuesday morning. It’s a good thing Alan Cumming is ineligible for Cabaret (having won a Tony for that role in 1998).

The surest thing in this category is Neil Patrick Harris getting a nomination. His performance is said to be phenomenal, and he is a Broadway darling (having hosted the awards several times). Andy Karl also seems a safe bet; his performance as the eponymous Rocky is the best thing about that musical.

Then things get murkier. The two leads from Gentlemen’s Guide have been riding a groundswell of support for the show that came out of nowhere. I used to think they would split the vote and end up with no nominations; instead they both got nominations from the Drama Desk and the Outer Critics Circle. If the Tony voters are as enamored of the performance, Mays and Pinkham might both get a nomination come Tuesday. If only one of them were to get it, my money would be on Jefferson Mays – Pinkham plays one characters very well, but Mays plays eight of them.

Steven Pasquale has fairly good odds, delivering an emotional and dramatic performance in Bridges of Madison County. And for what it’s worth, billboards and YouTube ads keep trumpeting that he “generates genuine sparks of erotic heat,” so let’s hope he got Tony voters hot and bothered.

The odd thing about the list above is that the two leads from Les Miserables were ignored by the other awards. Both Valjean and Javert got nominations for the original production in 1987, and Valjean got on Oscar nomination in 2013 for the film. So why are Valjean and Javert being ignored by the awards circuit this time around? It’s possible that they are splitting the vote. But considering all the raves he’s been receiving, I have a hard time seeing Ramin Karimloo not getting a nomination as Jean Valjean. Will Swenson is probably out of luck this year due to the fierce competition.

Adam Jacobs as the eponymous Aladdin really should get a Tony nomination for his impressive performance. However, I fear that he might be overshadowed by the production elements of the show, and Inglehart as the Genie (who might be the closest thing we have to a lock this year). In any other year, Jacobs would get a nomination, but I am afraid it’s just not his year.

Norbert Leo Butz is another one who should get a nomination, since broke the heart of every single person who saw Big Fish, and I still remember ugly-crying with my friends at the end of that. Unfortunately, Big Fish closed December 29 as one of the season’s first casualties, and has largely slipped off the radar since then.

Zach Braff was expected to be a nominee this year, but then Bullets Over Broadway turned out to not be as good as everyone expected it to be. Upon losing the critics’ favor, the show has largely been ignored by the awards circuit. And Braff is honestly the least exciting thing about that show.

The other Zach from Hollywood – Zachary Levi – would be one of my picks for his work in First Date. He wins over the entire audience along with his love interest every night. And he could have had an outside shot at a nomination, had there not been eight would-be sure-fire nominees ahead of him.

Predictions: Neil Patrick Harris, Andy Karl, Jefferson Mays, Steven Pasquale, and Ramin Karimloo.
Possible Alternatives (in order of likelihood): Bryce Pinkham, Adam Jacobs, Norbert Leo Butz.

Best Supporting Actor

The potential nominees for the supporting categories are every single Broadway actor not in the leading categories. It’s hard to know who exactly tickles the voters’ fancy, so the supporting categories involve some tricky guesswork.

There are three actors who are safe bets for nominations: James Monroe Iglehart (Aladdin’s Genie), Nick Cordero (Cheech in Bullets Over Broadway), and Joshua Henry (Violet). These three actors all got Drama Desk, Drama League, and OCC Award nominations. A likely fourth nominee will be Danny Burnstein (Cabaret), who got Drama Desk and OCC nominations.

The fifth slot could be anyone’s. The Drama Desk Awards gave it to Bobby Steggert (Big Fish), while OCC gave it to Jarrod Spector (Beautiful). The Enjolras from the original Les Mis won a Tony, so it’s possible this year’s Enjolras (Kyle Scatliffe) will be nominated. Alternately, I always thought Marius gets under-appreciated, so maybe Andy Mientus will get the nomination.
Talk of Mariuses, Hunter Foster does amazing work in The Bridges of Madison County as the cuckolded husband. Terence Archie (Apollo Creed in Rocky) is a long shot, but could surprise.

Predictions: James Monroe Iglehart, Nick Cordero, Joshua Henry, Danny Burnstein, Hunter Foster

Best Supporting Actress

Perhaps the most wide-open of the acting fields is Best Supporting Actress. The other awards all leaned towards off-Broadway performances in this category, so there is very little to go on, and a lot of good performances to consider. It’s a shame Courtney Reed (Aladdin’s Jasmine) is considered a lead, since she could have done quite well in this category.

Anika Larsen (Beautiful) was nominated by the Drama Desk and OCC, so her odds are good. Adriane Lenox (After Midnight) was nominated by the Drama Desk and Drama League, and seems to be the only thing people remember about After Midnight. Lena Hall (Hedwig and the Angry Inch) was recognized by the Drama League, and stands a good chance.

Then there are shows with several potential nominees, who will most likely get at least one unless they split the vote. A Gentlemen’s Guide seems to be so well-liked that one of its three supporting ladies will likely be nominated. The Drama Desk nomination went to Lauren Worsham (Phoebe), while the OCC chose Lisa O’Hare (Sibella). Joanna Glushak’s role as Lady Eugenia is smaller, but she was hilarious. I’d bet on Lisa O’Hare because Sibella is the showier role.

Les Miserables always dominates the Best Featured Actress category – in the original production, the Eponine won the Tony and Cosette was nominated, while Anne Hathaway won an Oscar for portraying Fantine. I’ve not seen the Les Mis revival yet, but I’ve not heard too much chatter about the women, so it’s really anyone’s guess. Caissie Levy (Fantine) is probably most likely, because Nikki M. James (Eponine) recently got a Tony for Book of Mormon, and because nobody likes Cosette (played by Samantha Hill).

Bullets Over Broadway also seems like it’ll get a nomination in this category, but the question is for whom. Marin Mazzie (Helen Sinclair) was nominated by the OCC, and has a bigger role – one that got an Oscar for Dianne West. But Helene York (Olive) gets the musical’s best number (a single entendre about hot dogs that has the audience in stitches), and that role in the film got an Oscar nomination for Jennifer Tilly. Although my preference would be York, it seems that the role of Helen Sinclair is more favored by awards.

Margot Seibert (Adrian in Rocky) got a Drama League nomination, but she honestly seems a non-entity in the musical – the show is all about Rocky. Sara Chase (First Date) would be a solid choice if voters remember First Date. Kate Baldwin (Big Fish) was widely praised, but she mostly seemed to be a motivation for Norbert Leo Butz’s character and didn’t do much on her own.

Predictions: Anika Larsen, Adriane Lenox, Lisa O’Hare, Marin Mazzie, Lena Hall.

Best Director

The Drama Desk and OCC agreed on Gentlemen’s Guide and Rocky, so those are safe bets. Drama Desk rounded out the field with Hedwig, Bridges of Madison County, and Bullets Over Broadway. The OCC preferred After Midnight and Les Miserables. I’m surprised If/Then wasn’t considered by either one of them, and I also think Aladdin was well-directed enough to sneak into the category.

Predictions: Gentlemen’s Guide, Rocky, Hedwig and the Angry Inch, Bridges of Madison County, Les Miserables

Best Book

The Drama Desk and OCC agreed on Aladdin, Beautiful, and Gentlemen’s Guide, so those will likely make it in. If/Then (DD nomination) will probably make it for its novelty – it’s entirely original and very ambitious. The Drama Desk rounded out the field with Big Fish, which seems like a good choice. The OCC preferred Rocky, which seems like a bizarre choice (then again, this is the category Matilda won last year against all logic). I could see First Date sneaking in, because it’s also entirely original and very clever.

Predictions: Aladdin, Beautiful, Gentlemen’s Guide, If/Then, First Date

Best Score

The Drama Desk and OCC agreed on Aladdin, Gentlemen’s Guide, and The Bridges of Madison County. All of those will make it, and all of them deserve to. But my favorite score of the season was the one from First Date – I’ve been listening the cast recording on repeat since it came out. First Date should really get a nomination in this field.

If/Then got OCC nomination, and that seems like a good choice for the fifth slot – the music in that show is great. The Drama Desk nomination went to Big Fish, but only for the music, not the lyrics (they split up the categories; OCC and Tonys do not). I saw Big Fish, and forgot the music the second I walked out of the theater – it was probably the show’s biggest weakness (aside for its budget). None of the other original shows I’ve seen have had particularly memorable scores.

Predictions: Aladdin, Gentlemen’s Guide, The Bridges of Madison County, If/Then, First Date

Best Revival

The potential nominees (after much debate) are: Les Miserables, Cabaret, Violet, and Hedwig the Angry Inch. Under new rules this year, although there should only be three nominees, it’s possible to have a fourth if the voting is really close. If there are four nominees, there’s not much to prognosticate. But which would be the odd revival out if there are only three nominees?

I feel comfortable guessing that if one of these revivals were to be snubbed it would be Cabaret. The Broadway community just seems wholly unimpressed that Roundabout is mounting the exact same production of Cabaret as it did in 1998, and there was talk of the entire production being ineligible. After all, they are not really adding anything new to the show.

Predictions: Les Miserables, Violet, Hedwig and the Angry Inch, (possibly) Cabaret

Best Musical

Because punditry isn’t difficult enough, the Tonys have new rules this year – if the voting is close enough, there will be a fifth nominee. Otherwise, the standard four musicals will get this all-important nomination. There are twelve contenders: First Date, Soul Doctor, Big Fish, A Night With Janis Joplin, After Midnight, A Gentlemen’s Guide to Love and Murder, Beautiful, The Bridges of Madison County, Rocky, Aladdin, If/Then, and Bullets Over Broadway.

Four productions have gotten all three other award nominations: Gentlemen’s Guide, Aladdin, Beautiful, and Rocky. Bridges of Madison County got Drama Desk and Drama League nominations; After Midnight got Drama League and OCC nomination, and the Drama League also nominated Bullets Over Broadway.

Gentlemen’s Guide, Aladdin, and Beautiful will most likely make it in – they just have too much momentum not to. But I can’t see the fourth slot going to Rocky – there just seem to be so many other Tony-friendly musicals in contention, and Rocky’s biggest problem is the persisting question of why it had to be a musical. I think the fourth slot is going to come down to either Bridges of Madison County or If/Then. If/Then will probably get the nomination for originality and ambition, and because Bridges has a very lackluster Act 1. Bridges will likely get the fifth slot if there is one.

Bullets Over Broadway has gotten poor reviews and doesn’t seem like a viable option. After Midnight has been largely forgotten about – the only times I hear about it are when I get emails begging me to buy discount tickets. And while I’d love for First Date to get a nomination (it was my favorite this season), that may be a bit of a pipe dream.

Predictions: Gentlemen’s Guide, Aladdin, Beautiful, If/Then, (possibly) Bridges of Madison County