The Tony Awards this year will be extremely interesting, as most fields are more wide open than they have been in years – the good shows this season have been an embarrassment of riches.

I will analyze all the Musical categories for the 2014 Tony Awards; I am not well-versed enough in the plays to properly predict victors. Full disclosure: I have seen all the musicals with multiple nominations this season except Beautiful and After Midnight (lack of interest), and Hedwig and the Angry Inch (lack of opportunity).

Note that predicting the Tonys is not as much of a science as the Oscars. The only preceding theater awards are the Drama Desks and Outer Critics Circle (OCC) Awards (and to a minor extent, the Drama League Awards) – all of which honor off-Broadway shows as well so the results are skewed. I have looked at these preceding awards, spoken to lots of theater-goers, and will do my best to predict who will win, along with giving my two cents about who should win.

This season has been unique in that a lot of very good shows opened, but none that appear to be the all-consuming blockbusters of years past. This has led to much more egregious snubbing by the Tonys than usual – If/Then did not get a Best Musical nomination and got snubbed all around (notably for its set and its book), Steven Pasquale was overlooked for Best Actor, and so forth. A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder (henceforth, “A Gentleman’s Guide”) leads the pack with ten nominations, with Hedwig and the Angry Inch in second place with eight nominations. However, this is no guarantee of triumph on Tony Night – Scottsboro Boys had twelve nominations three years ago, and walked away empty-handed. So, let’s dive in, category by category.

Best Musical
– After Midnight
– Aladdin
– Beautiful
– A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder

This is the big prize, the one that every show hopes to win. All four of the nominated shows have at least four other nominations, so it’s clear why voters like them (unlike Bring It On last year, whose nomination is still the most inexplicable thing in recent Tony history).

After Midnight just seems to be a complete nonentity – it’s a glorified revue that no one’s heard anything about. Audiences certainly aren’t having it – this past week, After Midnight’s miniscule theater was only 71% full; the other three shows had more expensive tickets yet still filled their larger theaters to 100% capacity. The Tonys rarely reward shows that aren’t crowdpleasers, so I cannot see After Midnight walking away as the Best Musical.

Past that, things get murky. The Broadway community can only agree on one thing: their collective hatred for jukebox musicals. Jukebox musicals’ relentless success only increases this vitriol, as Rock of Ages has become the go-to punchline upon Spiderman’s demise. However, the community seems to be wholeheartedly embracing Beautiful, the jukebox musical for Carole King songs. The only other jukebox musical to win Best Musical in the last twenty years is Jersey Boys. As flummoxed as I am by this, Beautiful stands a decent chance come June 8th.

The Broadway community also does not seem to think much of Disney’s musicals – the only one to win Best Musical was Lion King. However, Aladdin is their best offering since the one that started it all, Beauty and the Beast. Audience response to the show has been rapturous, with standing ovations reported in the middle of the show. Unlike most of this season’s shows, which feel like they still need quite a bit of work, Disney did not bring Aladdin to Broadway until it was perfected. It would most certainly be my pick for Best Musical; it was the one I enjoyed most this past season.

That leaves A Gentleman’s Guide. The show came out of nowhere and has kept gaining steam as the season went on: it leads in Tony nominations, and it won the Drama Desk, Drama League, and OCC Award for Best Musical. With this much momentum, it may be impossible to stop it. To be frank, I don’t get the hype – it was a perfectly lovely musical, but not of Best Musical caliber. Still, I seem to be in the minority here. Certainly, of the four nominees, this one feels the freshest (compared to a revue, a jukebox musical, and a musical film adaptation). Expect A Gentleman’s Guide to complete its awards sweep come June 8th.

Will Win: A Gentleman’s Guide
Might Win: Beautiful
Should Win: Aladdin

Best Revival
– Hedwig and the Angry Inch
– Les Miserables
– Violet

This race is the closest to being locked out of all the categories; there is absolutely no way Hedwig and the Angry Inch does not win. Hedwig won the Drama Desk, Drama League, and OCC awards in this category, and it’s all anyone is talking about. The show is pretty much sold out for the remainder of its run, and about 200 people attempt the ticket lottery every day. Since I’ve not seen Hedwig, I’ll be rooting for Les Miserables, but I know that’s futile. Since Hedwig has never played Broadway before, this is its first chance to win a Tony for a Best Show category, and it most assuredly will.

Will Win: Hedwig and the Angry Inch

Best Direction

– Warren Carlyle (After Midnight) – also nominated for Best Choreography
– Michael Mayer (Hedwig and the Angry Inch) – previously won for Spring Awakening; previously nominated for Thoroughly Modern Millie and You’re a Good Man, Charlie Brown; previously nominated for the play A View From the Bridge
– Leigh Silverman (Violet)
– Darko Tresnjak (A Gentleman’s Guide)

This category is a difficult one to predict, and will end up being a toss-up between Mayer for Hedwig and Tresnjak for A Gentleman’s Guide. Silverman does not stand a chance with Violet, since the show is one big squandering of potential. Carlyle is also nominated for his choreography for After Midnight, and might receive that as a consolation prize, but I cannot see him winning for Direction.

So it comes down to Mayer and Tresnjak. Mayer has the experience, and has a Tony already, whereas Tresnjak is making his Broadway debut. The Drama Desks and OCC Awards both gave awards to Tresnjak (who is the only director to be nominated for all three awards this season). Both Gentleman’s Guide and Hedwig have built up a lot of momentum going into the Tonys, and it’s really too close to call. I’ll pick Gentleman’s Guide to win, just because I’ve seen it and know the direction was excellent, but it’s essentially a coin flip at this point.

Will Win: Darko Tresnjak (A Gentleman’s Guide)
Might Win: Michael Mayer (Hedwig and the Angry Inch)

Best Actor
– Neil Patrick Harris (Hedwig)
– Ramin Karimloo (Les Miserables)
– Andy Karl (Rocky)
– Jefferson Mays (A Gentleman’s Guide) – previously won for I Am My Own Wife
– Bryce Pinkham (A Gentleman’s Guide)

This season has the most extraordinary Best Actor field in recent memory – even the actors who were snubbed (Steven Pasquale and Norbert Leo Butz, among others) would have walked away with the Tony in most other years. Of the five nominees, it is astounding that there has only been one previous nomination, considering the level of talent.

Bryce Pinkham has the least chance of winning, just because all the Gentleman’s Guide support will go towards Jefferson Mays. He is in the same position as Stark Sands was last year – playing the straight man to a showstopper like Billy Porter. It’s great that he was recognized with a Tony nomination, but he won’t get the award – probably won’t even factor in enough to split the Gentleman’s Guide vote. On the upside, this should cement Pinkham as a leading man on Broadway – previously, he’s only had a small role in Ghost the Musical, and was an understudy in Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson.

I do not know how Ramin Karimloo is as Valjean, since I saw an understudy in the role. However, everyone who has seen him spoke rapturously about his performance. Although this is Karimloo’s Broadway debut, he has been an awards magnet in other cities for his work in musical theater. Unfortunately, the lack of other nominations for Les Miserables (only two others, in Best Sound Design and Best Revival) bodes poorly for Ramin’s chances – there just seems to be a feeling that Les Miserables was not away long enough to necessitate a revival.

The same problem applies to Andy Karl, who is stupendous as the eponymous Rocky. Andy Karl has been working steadily on Broadway for a decade, including small parts in Legally Blonde and 9 to 5, a stint as Fiyero in Wicked, and a fantastic turn as Neville Landless in last year’s Mystery of Edwin Drood. He is long overdue for some Tony recognition, and he essentially carries Rocky the Musical on his shoulders. But Rocky only got three other nominations (Lighting, Set, and Choreography), and is generally being derided by the Broadway community. To some extent I agree – there is just a feeling that Rocky never needed to be a musical. However, Andy Karl’s performance elevates the whole production, and I wish he’d get the Tony.

That leaves the two frontrunners: Neil Patrick Harris and Jefferson Mays. Once again, the two shows with the most momentum. I thought NPH would have this in the bag, since there has been some criticism levied at Mays for rehashing the same trick from his one-man play I Am My Own Wife, where he plays seven different characters. But Mays is getting a last-minute swell of support. Mays won the OCC Award in this category. NPH won the Drama League’s Distinguished Performance Award denoting the best theatrical performance of the season (and when considering other categories in addition to this one, that’s saying something!). Further confusing the race, Mays and NPH tied at the Drama Desks! Ties are exceedingly rare at the Tonys, but there could be one here.

In the end, I give Harris a very slight edge, because his performance is legen-wait for it-dary (couldn’t resist). I wish I could see it. But in a year like this, it really is an honor just to be nominated.

Will Win: Neil Patrick Harris (Hedwig and the Angry Inch)
Might Win: Jefferson Mays (A Gentleman’s Guide)
Should Win: Andy Karl (Rocky)

Best Actress
– Mary Bridget Davies (A Night with Janis Joplin)
– Jessie Mueller (Beautiful) – previously nominated for On a Clear Day You Can See Forever
– Idina Menzel (If/Then) – previously won for Wicked; previously nominated for Rent
– Kelli O’Hara (Bridges of Madison County) – previously nominated for Nice Work If You Can Get It, South Pacific, The Pajama Game, and The Light in the Piazza
– Sutton Foster (Violet) – previously won for Thoroughly Modern Millie and Anything Goes; previously nominated for Little Women, The Drowsy Chaperone, and Shrek

In contrast to the Best Actor category, Best Actress includes some of the most decorated musical theater actresses working today – eleven previous Tony nominations, three of them wins. I’m sure Mary Bridget Davies was great as Janis Joplin – her nomination is the only one for any of the four shows that closed before nominations. But she is a nonentity in this race – from the get-go, it was a four-woman race between Jessie, Kelli, Idina, and Sutton. Each one has a stupendous starring role that got nominated for every major theater award… but only one can win.

The one that almost certainly won’t is Sutton Foster. Violet is a terrible showcase for her talent – there isn’t really any dancing, and the music could be sung by anyone with a decent voice. Besides, she already has two Tonys, one of which she won only two years ago.

Idina Menzel would be my choice, because she gives one of the most powerful performances I’ve ever seen, in one of the most demanding roles I’ve ever seen. She is almost never offstage during If/Then, and she has to portray two different characters. Everyone agrees that If/Then is essentially “Idina Menzel the Musical” – Idina carries the entire show. In fact, I’m very curious what will happen to the show when Idina leaves.

Despite all that, from what I can tell the frontrunners are Jessie Mueller and Kelli O’Hara. Mueller has been on stage almost constantly in the last few years, with roles in Mystery of Edwin Drood, Nice Work If You Can Get It (which she took over from Kelli O’Hara, ironically). Ever since she debuted as Carole King and elevated the show from a jukebox musical to a respected piece of theater, there has been Tony buzz for her. By all accounts, she is brilliant and carries the show, and she did win the Drama Desk Award. (The OCC Award went to Audra McDonald, who thankfully is not in this category at the Tonys.)

But then there is Kelli O’Hara. This is O’Hara’s fifth nomination, and she is really overdue for a win. If any role will get her a Tony, it should be this one. Bridges of Madison County was written specifically with her in mind as the lead, and then delayed until she could star in it. The role is one of the most challenging, with the score supremely difficult, and accent that has to be maintained, and a gamut of emotions that has to be conveyed. This could also be where Tony voters decide to reward the underappreciated Bridges of Madison County.

It’s incredibly close between O’Hara and Mueller, but I think in the end O’Hara will come out on top. Primarily because the common sentiment seems to be that she should really have a Tony by now, and this role is the best she’s ever performed in. Mueller will certainly have plenty of other opportunities to bring home a Tony. But this race is definitely one to watch.

Will Win: Kelli O’Hara (Bridges of Madison County)
Might Win: Jessie Mueller (Beautiful)
Should Win: Idina Menzel (If/Then)

Best Supporting Actor
– Jarrod Spector (Beautiful)
– Joshua Henry (Violet) – previously nominated for The Scottsboro Boys
– James Monroe Iglehart (Aladdin)
– Nick Cordero (Bullets Over Broadway)
– Danny Burstein (Cabaret) – previously nominated for Golden Boy, Follies, South Pacific, and The Drowsy Chaperone

Of the acting races, this is the only one where the outcome is fairly obvious. Though all the men give good performances, this Tony will doubtlessly go to James Monroe Iglehart for his turn as Aladdin’s Genie. Iglehart has become the face of Aladdin – pictures of him are sold at the theater, not of Aladdin and Jasmine. He gives a performance that lives up to Robin Williams’ frenetic energy. Just his performance of the ten-minute-long “Friend Like Me” extravaganza, which is exhausting just to look at and frequently gets standing ovations, should be enough to get him the Tony.

Iglehart’s only competition might come from Nick Cordero, who was one of the best things about Bullets Over Broadway. He even won the OCC Award, thought he Drama Desk went to Iglehart. But I don’t think his role is showy enough, and it will certainly go to the Genie. Especially because this could be the only award that Aladdin wins.

It’s interesting that of the five nominees, most are totally fresh faces. Spector was only ever a replacement in Jersey Boys, while Cordero was only ever a replacement in Rock of Ages. Joshua Henry and Iglehart are also fairly new. Danny Burstein, meanwhile, is on his fifth nomination, and is nominated for the third year in a row. Maybe next year he’ll get lucky?

Will Win: James Monroe Iglehart (Aladdin)
Might Win: Nick Cordero (Bullets Over Broadway)
Should Win: James Monroe Iglehart (Aladdin)

Best Supporting Actress
– Linda Emond (Cabaret) – previously nominated for Death of a Salesman and Life (x) 3
– Lena Hall (Hedwig)
– Anika Larsen (Beautiful)
– Adriane Lenox (After Midnight) – previously won for Doubt
– Lauren Worsham (A Gentleman’s Guide) – debut

In a fantastic year, this is one of the only fields that is thoroughly uninspiring. I’ve only seen two of the performances, but I have not heard rave reviews about any of them. Like the Supporting Actor field, this has a lot of fresh faces – none of the actresses was ever nominated for a musical before. The field is wide open. Even the preceding awards are no help – the OCC honored Marin Mazzie from Bullets Over Broadway (who isn’t even nominated); the Drama Desks had a tie between Larsen and Worsham.

My vote would go to Linda Emond for being the best thing about Cabaret. However, there is so much disdain for this production of Cabaret – for essentially replicated the 1998 production for some fast cash. I just can’t see Cabaret walking away with any Tony awards on Sunday.

There has been surprisingly little buzz for Lena Hall in Hedwig, despite everything else in that show being buzzed about constantly. By all accounts, she gives a good performance in a great role, but perhaps that is all just being overshadowed by Neil Patrick Harris. As for Adriane Lenox, I’ve not heard a thing about her all season.

I guess that Worsham will walk away with the award, purely because of the momentum A Gentleman’s Guide has amassed. It’s odd, because of the two supporting female roles in the show, I would have thought Lisa O’Hare would be the one honored. But it would appear Worsham will get a Tony for her Broadway debut, so good for her.

Her competition may come from Anika Larsen in Beautiful. Admittedly, I have not heard about her either this season. However, this could be a chance to reward Beautiful, which I believe will fall just short of the award in most other categories, but is clearly beloved by Tony voters. It’s odd to have an acting field without any standout performances, but it looks like all the awesome roles for women were lead roles this year.

Will Win: Lauren Worsham (A Gentleman’s Guide)
Might Win: Anika Larsen (Beautiful)
Should Win: Linda Emond (Cabaret)

Best Score
– Aladdin – Alan Menken (music), Howard Ashman (lyrics), Tim Rice (lyrics), and Chad Beguelin
o Alan Menken – previously won for Newsies; previously nominated for Sister Act, The Little Mermaid, and Beauty and the Beast
o Howard Ashman – previously nominated for The Little Mermaid and Beauty and the Beast
o Tim Rice – previously won for Aida and Evita; previously nominated for Lion King, Beauty and the Beast, Joseph and the Technicolor Dreamcoat, and Jesus Christ Superstar; also won for Best Book for Evita
o Chad Beguelin – also nominated for Best Book; previously nominated for The Wedding Singer
– The Bridges of Madison County – Jason Robert Brown – also nominated for Best Orchestrations; previously won for Parade; previously nominated for Urban Cowboy
– A Gentleman’s Guide – Steven Lutvak (music and lyrics) and Robert L. Freedman (lyrics) – Freedman also nominated for Best Book
– If/Then – Tom Kitt (music) and Brian Yorkey (lyrics) – previously won for Next to Normal; Kitt also previously won for Best Orchestrations for Next to Normal

Best Score is an unbelievably star-studded field this year: these composers and lyricists have five previous awards and eleven previous nominations in this category alone, to say nothing of Tonys in other categories, Oscars, Pultizers, and every other award you can think of. The exception is Lutvak and Freedman, who are making their Broadway debut with A Gentleman’s Guide. And while their score is perfectly serviceable, it does not compete with the other three scores in this category, and probably has the least chance of victory. As for the other three, their cast recordings are well worth a purchase.

Aladdin is a very interesting case, not least because it has four people nominated for its score. Alan Menken and Tim Rice are musical theater legends and beloved by the Tony committee. But the biggest asset Aladdin has going in is Ashman, the iconic composer who gave us the Disney Renaissance before tragically dying from AIDS. This could well be Ashman’s last chance for a Tony Award, which he shockingly has yet to win (he does have Oscars, Grammys, and a plethora of other awards). And there is no question that Ashman’s songs in Aladdin (as well as Menken’s and Rice’s) are magnificent.

The problem lies in Chad Beguelin’s contributions – he wrote all of the new material for the stage production. Quite frankly, it’s terrible – the songs are completely forgettable. Aladdin, as a show, is propped up by songs from the movie and Ashman’s songs, leading to a score that is widely uneven in quality. So despite the universal love and acclaim for Ashman and his music, I don’t think Aladdin will walk away with the Tony… which is a real shame.

If/Then stands a very good chance of winning this award, especially since the score and Idina Menzel are the only things nominated from that excellent show. Plenty of Tony voters will want to reward If/Then somehow, and with an incredibly stacked Best Actress category, this is their best chance. In my opinion, the If/Then score is the best of the bunch, slightly edging out Bridges of Madison County both in terms of variety and consistency of quality.

But If/Then will have fierce competition from Bridges of Madison County, which walked away with both the Drama Desk and the OCC Award. Bridges is beloved by those who’ve seen it (though not enough people saw it to keep it running). Jason Robert Brown is liked and respected in the Broadway community, even though most of his shows (like his recent 13 the Musical) have trouble finding a wide enough audience. Think of him as Broadway’s Joss Whedon pre-Avengers. His Bridges score is almost operatic, full of lengthy and emotional songs and soaring melodies. However, Brown will likely pick up a Tony for Best Orchestrations, which might sate voters’ desires to reward him for Bridges.

This award is one of those too close to call. I think this award might hinge on whether Kelli O’Hara wins Best Actress for Bridges – if she does, then Best Score will go to If/Then; if she does not, Bridges will get Best Score as a consolation prize. Or there is always a miniscule chance Aladdin gets it to honor Ashman. This award will be one to watch!

Will Win: Tom Kitt and Brian Yorkey (If/Then)
Might Win: Jason Robert Brown (Bridges of Madison County)
Should Win: Tom Kitt and Brian Yorkey (If/Then)

Best Book
– Chad Beguelin (Aladdin) – also nominated for Best Score; previously nominated for The Wedding Singer
– Robert L. Freedman (A Gentleman’s Guide)
– Douglas McGrath (Beautiful)
– Woody Allen (Bullets Over Broadway)

In sharp contrast to the pedigree of the Best Score category, there is a bunch of fresh faces in the Best Book category. In fact, Chad Beguelin is the only one to have written a Broadway musical before – Woody Allen has only written plays previously, and both Freedman and McGrath are making their Broadway debuts. Both McGrath and Woody Allen have plenty of experience in film, of course, but this is a whole different ball game.

I’m still reeling from the outrage of Matilda winning this category last year, but hopefully this year gets us back on track. There is absolutely no way Woody Allen wins – even putting his image problems aside, a common complaint has been that he merely transferred the movie script to stage with no changes. It’s also difficult to appreciate what exactly Beguelin added to the book of Aladdin that didn’t come from the movie, and how much value there is in that.

So this is a two-horse race between the two Broadway debuts, Freedman and Beautiful. I have not seen Beautiful, but for a jukebox musical to be making the waves that it is, it has to have one spectacular book. Still, Freedman won both the Drama Desk and the OCC Awards, and the best thing about A Gentleman’s Guide is its book. It feels very fresh, and is utterly hilarious. Considering all the support A Gentleman’s Guide has, I expect it to walk away with the award.

Will Win: Robert L. Freedman (A Gentleman’s Guide)
Might Win: Douglas McGrath (Beautiful)
Should Win: Robert L. Freedman (A Gentleman’s Guide)

Best Orchestrations
– Jason Robert Brown (Bridges of Madison County) – also nominated for Best Score
– Doug Besterman (Bullets Over Broadway) – previously won for Thoroughly Modern Millie, The Producers, and Fosse; previously nominated for How to Succeed in Business… and The Music Man
– Steve Sidwell (Beautiful)
– Jonathan Tunick (Gentleman’s Guide) – previously won for Titanic; previously nominated for Promises, Promises, A Catered Affair, Lovemusik, 110 in the Shade, Pacific Overtures, Nine, Follies, and Marie Christine

Jason Robert Brown may or may not win Best Score, but he is virtually guaranteed to win for Best Orchestrations. The orchestrations for Bridges of Madison County are some of the most unique to have been on Broadway in a while, and there is no way Tony voters don’t take this opportunity to reward Brown for this show. Brown won the Drama Desk, and there is no OCC Award for orchestration.

Also working in his favor is that Brown is the only one of these orchestrators to not already have a Tony for Orchestrations, aside from Sidwell (who is debuting on Broadway this season). Besterman already has three Tonys, while Tunick has one to keep his Emmy and Grammy company. There is a slight chance of an upset for Tunick to win if A Gentleman’s Guide starts sweeping the awards, but I think Brown has this one in the bag.

Will Win: Jason Robert Brown (Bridges of Madison County)
Might Win: Jonathan Tunick (A Gentleman’s Guide)
Should Win: Jason Robert Brown (Bridges of Madison County)

Best Choreography
– Warren Carlyle (After Midnight) – also nominated for Best Director
– Steven Hoggett and Kelly Devine (Rocky) –Hogget previously nominated for Once
– Casey Nicholaw (Aladdin) – previously nominated for Book of Mormon, Spamalot, and The Drowsy Chaperone; previously won for Direction for Book of Mormon
– Susan Stroman (Bullets Over Broadway) – previously won for The Producers, Contact, Show Boat, and Crazy For You; previously nominated for The Scottsboro Boys, Oklahoma, The Music Man, Steel Pier, and Big; previously won for Direction for The Producers

Interestingly, despite a field of celebrated director/choreographers, only one of these choreographers is also nominated as director – After Midnight’s Warren Carlyle. There is almost no chance that Carlyle wins as director, but there is a good chance he will win for his choreography – by all accounts After Midnight’s choreography is excellent, and otherwise the show would walk away empty-handed. Carlyle also won the Drama Desk and OCC Awards.

Hoggett (who worked on Peter and the Starcatcher) and Divine (Memphis and Rock of Ages) stand the least chance of winning – the choreography in Rocky is pretty coo when it comes to the climactic fight scene, but otherwise is not much to write home about. Stroman was also the director/choreographer of the unappreciated Big Fish this season, and does a good job with the choreography on Bullets. However, she has been winning Tonys since I was born, and this year did not represent her best efforts.

I think that Casey Nicholaw should get the Tony for Aladdin, which would make his first Tony won for choreography. Aladdin is a surprisingly dance-heavy show, and definitely featured the best dancing and most imaginative choreography I’ve seen all season. Here’s hoping the Tony voters recognize that and give the Tony to Nicholaw.

Will Win: Warren Carlyle (After Midnight)
Might Win: Casey Nicholaw (Aladdin)
Should Win: Casey Nicholaw (Aladdin)

Best Costume Design
– Linda Cho (A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder)
– William Ivey Long (Bullets Over Broadway) – previously won for Cinderella, Grey Gardens, Hairspray, The Producers, Crazy for You, and Nine; previously nominated seven other times
– Arianne Phillips (Hedwig and the Angry Inch)
– Isabel Toledo (After Midnight)

All of these costume designers except Long are making their Broadway debuts, though Phillips is as Oscar-nominated designer. And there is no sense in betting against Long – he won this Tony last year for Cinderella, and will almost certainly repeat for his superb work outfitting the ‘20s gangsters in Bullets Over Broadway. Also working in his favor is that this is likely the only award Bullets Over Broadway will get, and the fact that Long’s spectacular costumes for Big Fish were overlooked by the Tonys this year. Sure enough, Long won both the Drama Desk and OCC Awards for Bullets Over Broadway.

If competition comes from anywhere, it will come from A Gentleman’s Guide, since the costumes in that show are quite imaginative. But there is no way Long won’t get it, in the process becoming one of three people to win Best Costume Tonys in back-to-back years (the others are Florence Klotz and Catherine Zuber).

Will Win: William Ivey Long (Bullets Over Broadway)
Might Win: Linda Cho (A Gentleman’s Guide)
Should Win: William Ivey Long (Bullets Over Broadway)

Best Scenic Design
– Christopher Barreca (Rocky)
– Julian Crouch (Hedwig and the Angry Inch)
– Alexander Dodge (A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder) – previously nominated for Present Laughter
– Santo Loquasto (Bullets Over Broadway) – previously won for Café Crown; previously nominated ten times for scenic design; previously won for Costumes for The Cherry Orchard and Grand Hotel

This award really should go to Rocky – the huge boxing ring that slides into the audience is one of the coolest set pieces I’ve ever seen, and really should be rewarded. It already was rewarded by both the Drama Desk and the OCC. I’ve not heard anything about Hedwig’s set – in fact, I’m surprised Julian Crouch was not instead nominated for the set of Big Fish, which was very impressive. The set of Bullets Over Broadway was nothing special, so if any musical will challenge Rocky, it will be A Gentleman’s Guide, whose set was nothing big but quite inventive.

Will Win: Christopher Barreca (Rocky)
Might Win: Alexander Dodge (A Gentleman’s Guide)
Should Win: Christopher Barreca (Rocky)

Best Lighting Design
– Kevin Adams (Hedwig and the Angry Inch) – previously won for American Idiot, The 39 Steps, and Spring Awakening; previously nominated for Hair and Next to Normal
– Christopher Akerlind (Rocky) – previously won for The Light in the Piazza; previously nominated for Porgy and Bess, 110 in the Shade, Awake and Sing, and Seven Guitars
– Howell Binkley (After Midnight) – previously won for Jersey Boys; previously nominated for How to Succeed…, West Side Story, In the Heights, and Kiss of the Spider Woman
– Donald Holder (Bridges of Madison County) – previously won for South Pacific and Lion King; previously nominated seven other times

To be honest, I have no idea which of these shows had the best lighting. The Drama Desk went to Akerlind for Rocky, the OCC Award went to Adams for Hedwig. All of these lighting designers already have Tonys. Though I’ve not seen it, I’m going to bet on Hedwig, between the show’s momentum and Adams’s Tony track record. But Akerlind could pull off a steal for Rocky, or Holder could sneak in there for Bridges (he does pull off some spectacular sunrises in the show).

Will Win: Kevin Adams (Hedwig and the Angry Inch)
Might Win: Christopher Akerlind (Rocky)

Best Sound Design
– Peter Hylenski (After Midnight) – previously nominated for Motown, The Scottsboro Boys, and Rock of Ages
– Tim O’Heir (Hedwig and the Angry Inch)
– Mick Potter (Les Misérables)
– Brian Ronan (Beautiful) – previously won for Book of Mormon; previously nominated for Nice Work If You Can Get It, Anything Goes, and Next to Normal

I have no understanding of sound design, and have only seen one of the nominees, so I am no help in this category. It’s an interesting field – two of the designers worked on three shows each this season. Hylenski did the sound design for After Midnight, Rocky, and Bullets Over Broadway. Ronan did the sound design for Beautiful, Cabaret, and If/Then. In contrast, O’Heir is making his Broadway debut, and Potter is also fairly new.

The Drama Desk went to Ronan for Beautiful (there is no OCC category for sound design). I am inclined to agree that Ronan will get the award, because I don’t think Beautiful will get any other awards, and it’ll be shocking to see the show go home empty-handed. If not Ronan, perhaps O’Heir will ride the wave of support for Hedwig and pick up the award.

Will Win: Brian Ronan (Beautiful)
Might Win: Tim O’Heir (Hedwig)

Recap
Best Musical: A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder
Best Revival: Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Best Director: Darko Tresnjak (A Gentleman’s Guide)
Best Actor: Neil Patrick Harris (Hedwig)
Best Actress: Kelli O’Hara (Bridges of Madison County)
Best Featured Actor: James Monroe Iglehart (Aladdin)
Best Featured Actress: Lauren Worsham (A Gentleman’s Guide)
Best Score: Tom Kitt and Brian Yorkey (If/Then)
Best Book: Robert L. Freedman (A Gentleman’s Guide)
Best Orchestrations: Jason Robert Brown (Bridges of Madison County)
Best Choreography: Warren Carlyle (After Midnight)
Best Costume Design: William Ivey Long (Bullets Over Broadway)
Best Scenic Design: Christopher Barreca (Rocky)
Best Lighting Design: Kevin Adams (Hedwig and the Angry Inch)
Best Sound Design: Brian Ronan (Beautiful)

Final Tally:
A Gentleman’s Guide – 4
Hedwig – 3
Bridges of Madison County – 2
Aladdin – 1
After Midnight – 1
Beautiful – 1
Bullets Over Broadway – 1
If/Then – 1
Rocky – 1