If I Stay is set for release this Friday, and if book sales are an indication of movie success then it is set to make a big splash at the box office.

For years studios have looked for the next big thing in young adult adaptations. There doesn’t seem to be a definite recipe for success, but there is at least one indicator that has proven consistent over the years: book sales. Not the ones from the original release, but the book sales right before the movie opens.

Going back to the time of Twilight, book sales sky rocketed prior to the release of each movie, and those movies saw great success at the box office. This was also true for The Hunger Games, Divergent and most recently, The Fault in Our Stars. Conversely, book sales did not increase the same way for recent adaptations The Vampire Academy or The Mortal Instruments, which both saw no success on the big screen regardless of the size of their fandom.

If I Stay by Gayle Forman currently sits atop the New York Times and USA Today bestsellers lists and is second on the list at Amazon, suggesting it’ll make a big splash at the box office. The book has been selling strong since the debut of the trailer in early June. The trailer, by the way, debuted with The Fault in Our Stars – the type of audience that will like If I Stay. To tackle not one but three bestseller lists indicates it’s reaching a wide audience.

If that audience shows up to see the film its opening weekend, If I Stay will be a success.

So will it? Based on sales of the book over the last few months the answer is yes. Looking at the history of adaptations and the correlation between book sales and box office success, If I Stay should do just fine.

If I Stay hits theaters on Friday, August 22.

Will you be seeing ‘If I Stay’ this weekend?

And did you purchase the book in advance of the theatrical opening?