To hear the Internet talk, one would expect Avengers: Infinity War to make all of the money in the world next week, which seems to inevitably set us up for about a month of “Why did Infinity War disappoint at the box office?” articles.
I’d like to preempt those by bringing expectations in check. This way, when the media writes a deluge of “Infinity War flopped, superheroes are DOOMED!!!” posts, you can roll your eyes and ignore them as I do.
To lay out parameters: we’ll be discussing mostly the “domestic” (U.S./Canada) box office here; I’ll address worldwide box office later in the article. Any discussion of “a billion dollars” in the media pertains only to worldwide box office, as no film has ever earned a billion dollars at only the domestic box office. And of course, box office is not indicative of quality, so we are talking strictly financials here.
People are setting themselves up for disappointment because of one major fallacy: the idea that more heroes equals more box office. The idea is an appealing one: the more heroes together in a film, the more exciting it is, and the more people will see it and give the film their money. Sounds about right?
It’s very hard to disabuse people of this assumption. But the fact of the matter is that more heroes do not equate to more box office. The only people who get ridiculously excited about ever more heroes in one film are the ones who buy Avengers tickets the day they go on sale regardless of who else is in the film. To general audiences, lots of superheroes equals lots of superheroes, and that’s that. Was anyone really not going to see Infinity War unless the Guardians of the Galaxy showed up?
To whit, the most financially successful MCU films (both in terms of opening weekend and total gross) are the two Avengers films, Civil War, Iron Man 3, and Black Panther. Their ranking changes based on metric, but that is the top tier of MCU films, head and shoulders above everything else. So yes, the team-up films are more popular than any of the solo offerings – it’s fun to watch a bunch of superheroes hang out together. Within that Top Five, Avengers and Black Panther lead the pack, followed by Age of Ultron, with Civil War and Iron Man 3 bringing up the rear.
But it’s worth noting that until Black Panther, no superhero film managed to surpass the initial Avengers. Tossing in Quicksilver and Scarlet Witch didn’t do it for Age of Ultron. Tossing in Spiderman and Black Panther didn’t do it for Civil War. Adding more and more characters does not add box office, beyond the boost a film gets for just being a team-up film with lots of characters. People always manage to find other excuses for why the additional superheroes didn’t bring in additional money: Age of Ultron wasn’t very good, Civil War wasn’t really an Avengers movie, etc. But it’s the underlying assumption that’s the issue.
What does add box office? Is there any rhyme or reason? The single biggest factor in making a film go bananas at the box office is not the quantity of heroes – it’s the novelty factor. The biggest superhero team-up film remains the first one by a wide margin:
The first such film is accessible to general audiences, the ones who don’t read Hypable every day and watch YouTube videos about where the Infinity Stones are. Once that initial curiosity has been sated, some people just won’t come back for the next such film. No, not even if you throw the Guardians of the Galaxy in there.
There are two other arguments I’ve seen about why
If any of you have friends who’ve yet to plunge into the MCU, you may have been faced with the daunting task of trying to get them into it. Few people are willing to commit to watching eighteen films in a franchise. So then you wrack your brains for the most important ones. Well, you have to include the Avengers films (duh), the Captain America films (they change the game in the MCU),
General audiences may feel daunted by just how much homework they have to do to understand Infinity War. For the first Avengers, I went in having seen only Thor and Captain America, and that was fine. For Age of Ultron, there were five or six films to watch beforehand – nothing that can’t be done in a weekend. But eighteen films… that’s a lot. Casual fans may skip Infinity War, and even if the diehards see it twelve times instead of eleven, it won’t be enough to make up the difference.
But the most bizarre argument I’ve seen for Infinity War’s “assured” success is the “finale factor.” The hope is that even audiences who weren’t keeping up will turn out for the finale to see how it all turns out. This theory is based on exactly one precedent: Deathly Hallows, Part 2, which saw almost a 30% jump in box office from the prior installments (though much of that could be attributed to 3D surcharges).
But Infinity War is not Deathly Hallows, Part 2, it’s Deathly Hallows, Part 1. Next May, we’ll get the final Avengers film in Phase 3, and that might have a finale factor going for it. But Infinity War is not the finale. And for what it’s worth, Deathly Hallows, Part 1 made 2% less than Half-Blood Prince.
So now that we’ve established Infinity War won’t make all the money, the question is how much money it will make. We can break that up into different metrics to make a good guesstimate.
Part 1: Opening Weekend
The biggest hubbub will be on the opening weekend of Infinity War – not only does the studio get more of the money from opening weekend, but the numbers will set the narrative going forward.
For historical context, here are the biggest opening weekends in the MCU:
• Avengers – $207M
• Black Panther – $202M
• Avengers Age of Ultron – $191M
• Captain America: Civil War – $179M
• Iron Man 3 – $174M
Other than these five, no MCU film has hit $150M on opening weekend, and no other superhero film matched these figures. In fact, Avengers set the all-time opening weekend record back in 2012 – and these five films have only been surpassed thrice: The Force Awakens, The Last Jedi, and Jurassic World. The current all-time record is Force Awakens, with $248M.
One factor that may give Infinity War a really big opening weekend is Disney’s impressively spoiler-free release strategy. The trailers give nothing away besides the fact that this movie will star hundreds of characters from the MCU facing off against Thanos. They’re not holding proper screenings of the film at premiers. And they’re even launching a #KeepTheSecrets campaign for fans, imploring them to not spoil the film for others. This is serving to build anticipation to a fever pitch, and will ensure that fans who care about spoilers will rush out to see the film opening weekend. Who wants ten years of build-up to be spoiled by a Tweeter with loose lips?
Worst case scenario: Reviews declare that Infinity War is a filthy hot mess just as sex scandals come out about literally the entire cast. In this darkest timeline, Infinity War would get somewhere over $150M, but not by much. The sky-is-falling essays would be entirely justified.
The bar to clear: If Infinity War does not manage to top Iron Man 3’s $174M, it would be disappointing. The film will still be a success, but it should be making more.
Realistic expectations: Infinity War will probably earn somewhere in the $180M or $190M range, which essentially means every theater is close to capacity for the weekend.
Everything is awesome: If Infinity War clears $200M on opening weekend – a feat done only five times in history – it’s a runaway success and you can bust out the GIFs of Scrooge McDuck swimming through gold coins. Pie in the sky would be Infinity War topping $208M to be the #3 opening of all time behind Star Wars 7 and 8.
Part 2: Domestic Total
By mid-June, we’ll have an idea of what Infinity War’s total at the domestic box office will be, and this is the number that will truly matter.
Current biggest totals:
• Black Panther – $680M (ish)
• Avengers – $623M
• Avengers: Age of Ultron – $459M
• Iron Man 3: $409M
• Captain America: Civil War: $408M
Going further down the list, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 has $389M, and the second tier of MCU films (Spider-Man, Guardians Vol. 1, Iron Man 1 and 2, and Thor: Ragnarok) all fall between $310M and $335M.
For historical context, Avengers was the #3 movie of all time when it opened, and Black Panther is the #3 movie of all time right now. But then there’s a sharp dropoff – Age of Ultron is at #14 with other huge blockbusters, and the others aren’t even in the Top 20.
Here, it’s much more apparent, the effect of novelty. The opening weekends for the top tier were within 15% of each other, representing the core audience of MCU fans who will rush out to see these films right away. That number is fairly stable. The domestic total, on the other hand, relies on general audiences going to see the film in their own time. That’s why Avengers and Black Panther are over 35% higher than the other films – they’re accessible to anyone who wants to check out a movie during a free evening.
Worst case scenario: Word of mouth for Infinity War is toxic – like, Dawn of Justice toxic. MCU fans actively lunge at unsuspecting moviegoers to talk them out of seeing the film. In the darkest timeline, Infinity War fails to reach $400M, and we all weep for the rest of the year.
The bar to clear: If Infinity War does not get past the low $400M range of Iron Man 3 and Civil War, it’ll be acceptable, but not great. The film is still insanely profitable, but it’ll be evidence that there was nothing special about Infinity War despite all the hubbub.
Realistic expectations: Infinity War should hit somewhere in the mid-to-high $400M range, ideally passing Age of Ultron to forestall the doom-and-gloom headlines about diminishing returns in the MCU.
Everything is awesome: If Infinity War manages to clear $500M – a feat achieved only ten times in history – it’s an unqualified success. Pie in the sky would be topping the $534M of The Dark Knight to be the #3 superhero film of all time. There’s no chance that Infinity War hits $600M, so The Dark Knight should be the loftiest of goals that fans hope for.
Part 3: Worldwide
Worldwide is much harder to predict, due to expanding overseas marketplaces and constantly changing exchange rates. These days, any huge blockbuster that doesn’t clear one billion dollars is deemed a flop, so that’s the worst-case scenario: Infinity War earns $998M worldwide and the media wrings their hands for the remainder of 2018.
The historical context:
• Avengers – $1.52B
• Avengers: Age of Ultron – $1.41B
• Black Panther – $1.32B (ish)
• Iron Man 3 – $1.21B
• Captain America: Civil War – $1.15B
Worldwide, it appears the Avengers films do have an edge on the competition. That raises the bar for Infinity War ever higher.
If Infinity War ends up below Black Panther worldwide, that would be disappointing, but it well could happen. Anything between $1.3B and $1.5B would be good. And there is a reasonable chance that Infinity War surpasses Avengers by a little and puts all the pessimists in their place. But Infinity War is not going to clear $2B, and let’s just keep sight of that going forward.
Hopefully this article was instructive, so you can enjoy Infinity War without paying heed to all the Debbie Downers decrying the end of the MCU every time a box office number comes in. Do you plan on contributing to the opening weekend gross?
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