This year’s 92nd Oscar season has come and gone even quicker than usual with the ceremony coming three works earlier than usual: this Sunday, February 9, at 5pm PST.
Here are our final predictions in the major categories. Sound off in the comments with your predictions and favorites!
Best Picture
While nine films were nominated for best picture this year, the so-called precursors (the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, SAG Awards, and BAFTAS) and the guild awards point to a two-way race between 1917 and Parasite, with possible spoilers coming from Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Irishman. The Producers Guild Award went to 1917, which makes this the smart-money choice for the Best Picture Oscar–it is, overwhelmingly, the most predictive award.
However, I am going to go out on a limb and say that Parasite has the same level of passionate love and deep respect that Academy also felt for Moonlight, a movie that was also considered to be the strong second place to La La Land, which Moonlight quite famously upset.
The three films in serious contention that are not 1917 are also some of my personal favorite movies of the year–of which, I consider The Irishman and Parasite to be the only two stone cold classics of the year–and I would delight in any of them besting the one-take-wonder with little else to offer war flick.
The other five nominees–Ford v. Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, and Marriage Story–are each conventionally believed to go home with at least one award, which will serve as the Academy’s acknowledgement of that film’s achievement overall.
Will win: Parasite
Should win: The Irishman and Parasite
Possible upset: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Director
Where I think we see flexibility in 1917’s frontrunner status for Best Picture, I believe that film’s director, Sam Mendes, has this award all sewn up. In the past decade, the Oscars have tended to treat the Best Director award as the Most Direction award. This focuses on technical bravura, which only covers a sliver of what a director brings to a film. (Personally, I am an auteurist, so I see no distinction between Best Picture and Best Director; I believe the best directed movie of the year simply is the same thing as the best movie of the year.) But 1917’s one shot gimmick seems to be fooling enough people into thinking the film has substance, so we can expect that to win.
Many people are predicting an upset from Bong Joon-ho, director of Parasite, but I wonder if the direction is too subtle; I’ve seen many (wrong!) takes that Parasite is a screenwriting achievement more than a directorial one. If there is going to be an upset, I think it will be from Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. He has been nominated for this award twice in the past and has never won. Many people feel he is surely overdue. Todd Phillips, director of Joker, is merely lucky to be nominated after missing out on the Directors Guild Award nominations, while greatest-filmmaker-of-all-time Martin Scorsese’s Irishman will continue to be blithely overlooked in this category.
Will win: Sam Mendes, 1917
Should win: Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Possible upset: Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Actress
The same four people have been dominated in all of the acting categories this season, and I think we can expect that to continue at the Oscars. Renee Zellweger’s performance as Judy Garland in Judy is a deeply affective performance as someone who is not Judy Garland, which I do not say as a knock against her. I would much rather the emotional truth Zellweger brings to Garland than for it to be a shallow impression–which is what her co-nominee Charlize Theron delivers in Bombshell as Megyn Kelly. If anyone could upset, it will be Saoirse Ronan, who already seems overdue for a win at age 25 (this is her fourth nomination).
Will win: Renee Zellweger, Judy
Should win: Renee Zellweger, Judy
Possible upset: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Best Actor
If any award is a lock on Oscar night, it’s this one. It would be a stunner if Joaquin Phoenix lost this award for his performance in Joker (which I don’t particularly like very much, but most people I know of the Academy demographic seem to like very much). Despite my personal distaste for the performance, I still believe Phoenix to be the best actor of his generation and he should anticipate winning here on his fourth nomination. Antonio Banderas gives the best performance of his career, with a subtle and deep performance in Pedro Almodóvar’s latest film Pain and Glory, and would be my vote.
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Should win: Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Possible upset: Adam Driver, Marriage Story–but really, there is no spoiler here
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern plays a high-powered Los Angeles divorce attorney in Marriage Story and she has similarly steamrolled through this season, picking up every win imaginable. She had a great year, giving a tender-hearted performance as Marmie in Little Women, in addition to this performance. Those films, plus her beloved standing in the Academy as one of its governors, who was nearly elected Academy President a couple of years ago, adds up to a definite win. If anyone should surprise, I think it will be Scarlett Johansson for her performance in Jojo Rabbit–Johansson received two nominations this year (her first two Oscar nominations ever), and the rare double nomination often leads to a win.
Will win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Should win: Florence Pugh, Little Women
Possible upset: Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt, Brad Pitt, Brad Pitt! The actor has never won an award for acting, although he does have a Best Picture Oscar for producing 12 Years a Slave, and his time has come. He has aged from a young heartthrob into one of the most interesting actors in American cinema today–though, as his shirtlessness in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood shows, he’s still a heartthrob. That said, I think if any of the frontrunners lose, it would be here. Not because of any weakness in Pitt (I agree that he gives one of the best performances of the year), but because of the comeback of Academy Award winner Joe Pesci. Martin Scorsese had to coax Pesci out of retirement to play crime boss Russell Buffalino, and thank goodness he did–Pesci provides not only his trademark humor, but also the heart of the picture.
Will win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Should win: Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Possible upset: Joe Pesci, The Irishman
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