May 5, 2017
While it could be released in the next spot, a few months later, there’s a good shot that Marvel’s big 2017 movie will be Guardians of the Galaxy 2. Three years seems like the right wait for a sequel, and we can’t imagine Marvel would want to push it any further. Releasing it on July 28 would be the most obvious choice as the first Guardians of the Galaxy will be released on August 1 this year. Releasing the sequel on essentially the same weekend would be a smart move. But we don’t think that will happen.
Up to this point, Marvel has done everything to brag about how good Guardians of the Galaxy is, and the first impressions by critics who have seen the movie have been incredibly positive. It’s set to be a huge success, so much that James Gunn has already been confirmed as director of its sequel. Guardians of the Galaxy is as big of a risk as Marvel has taken so far, but Guardians of the Galaxy 2 won’t be.
Because of this, we think Marvel will peg this as their big summer movie of 2017, something that will allow them to take more of a risk later in July, a risk similar to Doctor Strange the year before. Of course, there’s always the possibility that Marvel decides to give this release date to Iron Man 4 (if there is an Iron Man 4), but that would push Guardians of the Galaxy 2 further away than Marvel wants.
July 28, 2017
Assuming Marvel doesn’t pull out Iron Man 4 and stick Guardians of the Galaxy 2 onto this date (which would be one crazy summer), we think that for three years in a row this July/August date will again be where Marvel puts a risk. We also think this is where they put a movie that’s been a long time coming; a movie centered around a female superhero. Marvel is doing a lot of things right, but one of their biggest weaknesses has been the lack of a female hero leading a movie. It shouldn’t have had to come to this, but Marvel doesn’t want to wait until after Phase 3 to get their first female centric movie. They certainly don’t want to wait to announce it until after DC has announced Wonder Woman.
Currently it seems that Black Widow is the best bet for Marvel’s first female hero driven movie. Fans have been calling for it for a while, and it would be a smart business decision too. Black Widow is a known hero in the MCU, and she’ll have already have appeared in at least four (and probably five) movies by this point. She’s less of a risk than any other hero Marvel has yet to give a movie to. (Though, seriously Marvel? We like badass women. Just look at The Hunger Games.) This could even be (at least partially) a pre-The Avengers film that teams her up with Hawkeye, and we could finally learn what happens in Budapest.
We aren’t especially confident that Black Widow will be released in 2017, but it’s as good of an option as any. Marvel could release any number of properties here (or on May 5 if they decide to keep Guardians at this point in the summer), and we haven’t the slightest idea which one they’ll go with. It’s really up in the air at this point.
November 3, 2017
There’s a chance Marvel could surprise us and put it on May 5, 2017, but we’re pretty sure Thor 3 will release on one of the two November dates, and we’re banking on it being in 2017. We think November will be where Marvel wants to place Thor 3 due to how well Thor: The Dark World did in the same month. This could also place it a year and a half before Avengers 3, the same as the time between Thor: The Dark World and Avengers: Age of Ultron. There’s also the distinct possibility that if Thor 3 has a major plot point that directly leads into Avengers 3 it could be released a year later (November 2, 2018), but at this point we’re guessing that isn’t what happens.
The one thing that we can expect from Thor 3 is that it will likely show us where Loki stands after the events of Thor: The Dark World. Assuming a very small cameo hasn’t been hidden remarkably well, Loki will not appear in Avengers: Age of Ultron. Given his interactions with Thanos in The Avengers, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Loki play some kind of role in Avengers 3, unless Thor 3 does something to prevent that. Either way, Thor 3 should show where Loki lies.
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