Yesterday I told MuggleCast listeners that they could expect Fantastic Beasts to hit box office tracking reports in the not-too-distant future. Good thing we got that episode out quick — they’re already here!
These tracking reports tell Warner Brothers how many people are interested in seeing Fantastic Beasts when it opens on November 18. Tracking is conducted on all films in advance of their release so studios can see if their marketing is working.
Fantastic Beasts’ tracking reports are in, and by Wizarding World standards they’re… fine. According to THR, J.K. Rowling’s first Harry Potter spinoff is expected to pull in $75 million during its opening weekend in the United States.
How does this compare to the opening weekends of the original eight Harry Potter movies? Order of the Phoenix and Half-Blood Prince pulled roughly the same numbers — they made $77.8 million and $77.1 million, respectively.
However, the other six Harry Potter movies did noticeably better. Even the first two films, which opened before the fandom exploded in popularity, are ahead by no less than $10 million.
‘Harry Potter’ box office numbers
- Sorcerer’s Stone: $90.2 million
- Chamber of Secrets: $88.3 million
- Prisoner of Azkaban: $93.6 million
- Goblet of Fire: $102 million
- Order of the Phoenix: $77.1 million
- Half-Blood Prince: $77.8 million
- Deathly Hallows, Part 1: $125 million
- Deathly Hallows, Part 2: $169.1 million
If Fantastic Beasts were to open at $75 million or below, it’d be the lowest for a Wizarding World movie. But this begs the question: Should we even compare the two franchises?
In short, yes. Fantastic Beasts is only happening because Warner Brothers wants another franchise that is as successful as Harry Potter. Unfortunately, a $75 million opening suggests that all Harry Potter fans are not desperate for a new Wizarding World series.
If the first movie is very good — and Dear Godric Gryffindor, I hope it is — the box office numbers could look much better for Fantastic Beasts 2 and beyond. (Remember: WB and J.K. Rowling recently promised five movies.)
But not all hope is lost on an impressive opening for Fantastic Beasts 1. Good word of mouth could propel the first movie to a final box office total that matches or beats many movies from the original series. Domestically, the original eight pulled $249 million to $381 million by the time they each left theaters.
The sequel already has one thing going for it: Dumbledore will be making an on-screen appearance. A beloved Harry Potter character’s presence is sure to help draw fans in for the follow-up whether or not they like Movie 1.
As I said on MuggleCast 303, I believe J.K. Rowling has a story she’s really passionate about, that she thinks the fandom will love. I don’t think she would be writing a five-part film series otherwise.
Let’s hope that Fantastic Beasts 1 is amazing, and the entire series’ box office will enjoy a trajectory similar to Harry Potter’s.
We want to hear your thoughts on this topic!
Write a comment below or submit an article to Hypable.