Tony Award time is upon us. Tuesday morning will see the nominations announced for the 2015 Tony Awards.
Rulings have been made, the last dozen shows opened last week, so here are Hypable’s predictions for the Tony Award nominees. This article will look at the acting categories for musicals.
Best Actor in a Musical
The actors eligible for this award are:
- Brian d’Arcy James from Something Rotten [shown pictured above]
- John Cariani from Something Rotten
- Michael Cerveris from Fun Home
- Matthew Morrison from Finding Neverland
- Michael Esper from The Last Ship
- Roger Rees from The Visit
- Robert Fairchild from An American in Paris
- Rob McClure from Honeymoon in Vegas
- Ken Watanabe from The King and I
- Peter Gallagher from On the Twentieth Century
- Tony Yazbeck from On the Town
- Tam Mutu from Zhivago
There are three sure things in this category: Brian d’Arcy James, Robert Fairchild, and Michael Cerveris, who all received nominations from OCC, DD, and Drama League. But past that, the field is wide open. Matthew Morrison will likely get a nomination, having received one from DD and Drama League. Tony Yazbeck might get it (he got OCC and Drama League nominations), but he is the dullest thing in On the Town.
If there is a big enough groundswell of support for Something Rotten, John Cariani might also get a nomination (he got OCC for Supporting Actor), but he is just not as memorable as d’Arcy James or Christian Borle. It would be like when Stark Sands got nominated for Kinky Boots alongside Billy Porter. On the other hand, if there is enough support for The Visit, Roger Rees might pick up a nomination.
Dr. Zhivago has been reviled by critics and ignored by awards bodies, but Tam Mutu might still get a nomination for what is surely a powerful role. The last remotely likely contender is Peter Gallagher for Twentieth Century, but he keeps missing performances due to illness.
Predictions: Brian d’Arcy James, Robert Fairchild, Michael Cerveris, Matthew Morrison, Tam Mutu.
Alternatives (in order of likelihood): Tony Yazbeck, John Cariani, Roger Rees, Peter Gallagher.
Best Actress in a Musical
The actresses eligible for this award are:
- Beth Malone from Fun Home
- Laura Michelle Kelly from Finding Neverland
- Rachel Tucker from The Last Ship
- Chita Rivera from The Visit
- Leanne Cope from An American in Paris
- Kelli O’Hara from The King and I
- Kristin Chenoweth from On the Twentieth Century
- Lisa Howard from It Shoulda Been You
- Erin Davies from Side Show
- Emily Padgett from Side Show
- Vanessa Hudgens from Gigi
There are not many ways this category could go, as four of the five nominees are obvious: Kelli O’Hara, Kristin Chenoweth, Chita Rivera, and Leanne Cope. All have received nominations from all other awards bodies (except O’Hara missing the Drama Desk). There are three or four contenders for the fifth slot.
The likeliest is Lisa Howard for It Shoulda Been You, having received DD and Drama League recognition. The problem is confusion over who gets lead billing in It Shoulda Been You; most awards have recognized Tyne Daly as the lead. Both twins from Side Show should get Tony nods, but this time around they are not eligible for a joint nomination, and might split the vote. If one sneaks in, it’ll likely be Erin Davies; she got a DD nomination.
Beth Malone is not enough of a presence to warrant a nomination as lead actress. That leaves Laura Michelle Kelly from Finding Neverland. Her lead status is questionable, but she does get a very extended death scene, which could work in her favor.
Predictions: Kelli O’Hara, Kristin Chenoweth, Chita Rivera, Leanne Cope, Lisa Howard.
Alternatives (in order of likelihood): Erin Davies, Emily Padgett, Laura Michelle Kelly.
Best Supporting Actor in a Musical
Christian Borle (Something Rotten) and Andy Karl (On the Twentieth Century) are guaranteed slots, having been recognized by OCC, DD, and Drama League. Josh Grisetti (It Shoulda Been You) and Max von Essen (An American in Paris) received nominations from OCC and Drama Desk, and will likely fill in the third and fourth spot. The fifth slot should go to Kelsey Grammar for Finding Neverland; he was nominated by the Drama League.
The likeliest spoiler is Brad Oscar for Something Rotten, as he got a DD nomination, but unless Something Rotten is doing a sweep we believe the love will be focused on Christian Borle. If the vitriol towards Dr. Zhivago does not extend to Tony voters, Paul Alexander Nolan could get a nomination (he got an OCC). And though it’s a pipe dream, this writer very much wants young Aidan Gemme to be nominated for his heart-breaking turn as Peter Llewelyn Davies in Finding Neverland.
Predictions: Christian Borle, Andy Karl, Josh Grisetti, Max von Essen, Kelsey Grammar.
Best Supporting Actress in a Musical
Tyne Daly is guaranteed a spot for It Shoulda Been You, especially since most other awards and the advertising materials treat her as the lead in the show. Ruthie Ann Miles (King and I) is also a sure thing, having both OCC and Drama League nominations. Judy Kuhn (Fun Home) will take the third slot, having received recognition from all other awards. The last two slots, however, are entirely up in the air.
The ladies of On the Town would be strong contenders, except they will likely split the vote. Thus far, Megan Fairchild got an OCC, Elizabeth Stanley a Drama Desk, and scene-stealer Alysha Umphress nothing. Mary Louise Wilson (Twentieth Century) could get in, having received an OCC nomination. Heidi Blickenstaff could be recognized for Something Rotten, though she is somewhat overshadowed by all the guys on the stage. Sydney Lucas (Fun Home) might nab a nomination for playing a young Allison Bechdel.
If the Tony voters are feeling more charitable towards Finding Neverland than other awards bodies did, Carolee Carmello might snag a nomination; she got a Drama Desk nod, though her performance was nothing special. If Tony voters remember the existence of Gigi, then Victoria Clark could get a nomination, as she got an OCC. Either way, this category is one to watch Tuesday morning.
Predictions: Tyne Daly, Ruthie Ann Miles, Judy Kuhn, Sydney Lucas, Victoria Clark.
We want to hear your thoughts on this topic!
Write a comment below or submit an article to Hypable.