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Hypable

Great news for Lionsgate above anyone else: analysts are now predicting that The Hunger Games‘ box office return will be around $200 million.

This is up from a $170 million prediction earlier this month.

Bloomsburg has the latest estimate:

The first of four “The Hunger Games” films, about teens fighting for their lives in a post-apocalyptic world, may generate $200 million in domestic box-office sales, according to Matthew Harrigan, an analyst with Wunderlich Securities in Denver who recommends the stock. The movie opens March 23.

“The pipe dream was that this would be tantamount to the ‘Twilight’ franchise,” Harrigan said in an interview. “People aren’t willing to go there yet, but it’s looking possible.”

Fansite The Hob notes that the analyst predictions were at $150 million back in July, so investors are clearly feeling more and more confident in the film’s potential.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=531808242 Courtney Gibson

    So they are planning four films?… I don’ t like that idea, because there is absolutely no way to split Mockingjay, and unless Suzanne Collins writes it herself it will be a disaster. 

    • Elza Barger

      Agreed, I don’t feel like there is a need to split Mocking jay.

    • Mia

      More than likely a money ploy, but I’ll hold off on judgments until I see the fourth film. I feel like this is what Breaking Dawn is as well. And I’m sure WB enjoyed the extra money, but I’m super happy they split DH into two films, and I think this is how most fans feel. Maybe we’ll be happy they split it… but its doubtful.

    • Andromeda

      I think all of these series’ are having the last film turned into two movies in order to copy HP (and all the $$$ it made)…but the difference is that HP 7 was long enough to actually need to be two films. Mockingjay is way too short to be two films.

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1776780125 Brett Holden

        lol, it isn’t too short at all. There’s enough material there for two movies and I’d say that about the other books as well. We don’t have any clue of how they are going to approach the adaptation. They could take smaller plot points and make them larger. They are likely to add scenes to give more depth to characters or emphasis themes. Even simply adapting every scene action for action and word for word would make these very lengthy pictures that could be cut into two. 

  • Jason

    Too optimistic. I think it’ll probably be at $120 million total domestic gross. 

  • http://twitter.com/vonchambers Devon Chambers

    I’ll wait till the pre-sale ticket stubs start flowing in, if the numbers are high then there is a good possibility … I have no doubt they’ll make more money domestically than the budget, just a matter of how much more.

  • RSCAR

    I think it would be awesome if Mockingjay part 1 had a lot of back story and made it almost like a prequel. I don’t think they have enough martial for 2 films so they are gonna have to do something.

  • akacj18

    let’s not get ahead of ourselves, please. don’t jinx it! *crossing my fingers*

  • Hehedied

    I think most the fans will go opening night and first week, but it will drop fast the second week. They better not split Mockingjay!!!

  • Anonymous

    Ehhhhh, no. The Hunger Games is awesome, really, but Lionsgate has been alienating fans, not to mention which they’ve been ignoring their older audience. I just don’t see it happening for them. That means they’re under the impression that they’re going to sell approximately 25 million tickets. They only have 1M FB fans, and book sales were approximately 1.5M for each book. 

    I haven’t seen much evidence that they’ve effectively reached out to convert other fans. So I’m going to say this is a ploy to raise their stock price for reasons to do with the Summit buy.

    I mean, I freaking love Hunger Games, but I’m concerned Lionsgate might live up to its reputation for bricking layups.

  • Lindsey

    I HATE the fact that they’re trying to make it like “Twilight”. Absolutely no disrespect to “Twilight”, but I feel like the making of those movies was to simply satisfy the fans and make money. On the other hand, “Harry Potter” was more groundbreaking. They focused on the cinematography of the movies, rather than simply making money. Obviously money was on their minds since there is a huge amusement park dedicated to the boy wizard, but HP was also up for Oscars. “Twilight” didn’t even have a chance, especially the first.

    My point is that I wish the HG team would focus more on the cinematography, the purpose, and the message of the story of The Girl on Fire. They just need to slow down and at least try to make the movies seem worth while to people outside of the fan base. Please don’t ruin another decent book series by making a mediocre film franchise.   

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1776780125 Brett Holden

    $200 M domestic is what I predicted when the first analysis was announced. I think it’ll be in that ball park easily. 

  • PattyNumbers

    Splitting the films might work if they split part of CF and maybe an arc of Mockingjay into one, then the rest of Mockingjay in another, but Mockingjay on its own split into two? I don’t think that would be the best course of action.

  • Sia

    I’m sorry it won’t hit Twilight numbers. It’s popular but I don’t see the craziness.

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